What would the map look like in this scenario?
THE DEMOCRATS
Harris is the Democratic nominee - Biden has announced he will not be seeking reelection. Harris subsequently cruises through the Democratic primaries with nominal opposition. As her running mate, Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who is term-limited and cannot run for reelection in 2024.
Final Ticket
For President: Vice-President Kamala Harris of California
For Vice-President: Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina
THE REPUBLICANS
There are five candidates in the running: Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, who runs as a pro-Trump populist with strong support in the Great Plains; Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, with 'mainstream' support; former Vice-President Mike Pence of Indiana, with limited support; Senator Marco Rubio of Florida; and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. Following a fifth-place finish in Iowa and fourth-place finish in New Hampshire (he beat Noem in NH), Pence drops out of the race. Haley is doing poorly, having finished a narrow second in Iowa (behind Noem) and winning very narrowly in New Hampshire. She then finished a surprising third in Nevada, behind DeSantis and Rubio. However, she bounces back after South Carolina, where she wins every single county and captures a majority of the vote (51%). DeSantis and she tie on Super Tuesday, splitting all the states there between them. After all the primaries, neither DeSantis nor Haley has attained a majority of delegates, though Noem has more. Subsequently, DeSantis pressures superdelegates / unpledged delegates, and those pledged to Rubio and Pence (both of whom have dropped out [in a moment of deja vu, Rubio suspended the campaign after losing badly in Florida; he lost to DeSantis and come a very distant second, nearly coming third]; Noem remains till the bitter end), and clinches the nomination. Fearing that Haley's supporters will stay home on election day in response to this treachery, DeSantis hastily offers the VP slot to Haley, who accepts.
Final Ticket
For President: Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida
For Vice-President: Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina
I think DeSantis will beat Haley handily, even in SC. I suspect Harris will choose Cooper instead of someone from the rustbelt. But in the scenario you described, NC, WI, AZ will be lean R, MI lean D, PA, GA, NV tossup. All other states same as 2020.
