Why do you believe CO is safe blue and NM is only likely blue?
New Mexico voted Democratic by double digits in 2020, and only marginally to the right of Colorado. I'm not saying Colorado should be made likely D; New Mexico should be safe D. Other than that, your map seems mostly plausible, except I don't know why you would think Wisconsin flips red if Arizona and Georgia are tossups; they voted to the right of Wisconsin, and yes, they are becoming more liberal, but I don't think they'll be significantly more Democratic than Wisconsin in 2024; the three states will likely vote around the same. Or, if anything, they will likely stay as they were in 2020 or even flip red; DeSantis will likely be a (somewhat) better fit for suburban moderate Romney/Biden voters than Trump, and Haley's presence will likely help fuel that.
NM is more rural than CO and I believe that Hispanics would trend R in this election so NM would be Likely D. But I think you're right, WI should be a tossup. Haley would hurt DeSantis in the rust belt.
