NJ-FDU: Murphy +15

[wbrocks67]

Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, June 9-16

Phil Murphy (D) 48%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 33%

Murphy job approval: 50/39 (+11)
Ciatarelli fav: 16/14 (+2)

Suburban voters: Murphy 47-34
Urban voters: Murphy 48.5-20
Rural voters: Murphy 48-31
Independents: Ciatarelli 28-23
Men: Murphy 39-37
Women: Murphy 54-27

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/murphy-leads-ciattarelli-by-15-points-in-new-fairleigh-dickson-university-poll/

[wbrocks67]

Ridiculous # of undecideds, but this is about where I'd expect the margin to end up

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, that's the margin I am predicting, which is typical for a Democrat in New Jersey. The state is so inelastic.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe D.

[slothdem]

Safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murphy 60/40 yawn, just like Cali and VA will be safe D

[SnowLabrador]

Probably more like D+10.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Aside from the sizable number of undecideds, this looks about right. Murphy will win by the typical mid-teens margin. The only real variable, that might be an asset to Ciatarelli to close the gap somewhat, is my state's absolutely abysmal turnout in off-year elections that generally benefits Republicans, as 2019 demonstrated.

[Suburbia]

Likely D, Murphy needs to talk more about property taxes.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably more like D+10.

I am thinking Phil Murphy wins by a 55-43 or 56-42 margin. Jack Ciattarelli probably only wins Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset, Sussex, Cape May, Salem, Warren, and Hunderton Counties and loses Morris County when compared to Kim Guadagno in 2017. Really Jack Ciattarelli‘s best strategy would be to focus on property taxes and some of Phil Murphy’s more unpopular COVID mitigation, but that wouldn’t make a difference in the end.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably more like D+10.

I am thinking Phil Murphy wins by a 55-43 or 56-42 margin. Jack Ciattarelli probably only wins Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset, Sussex, Cape May, Salem, Warren, and Hunderton Counties and loses Morris County when compared to Kim Guadagno in 2017. Really Jack Ciattarelli‘s best strategy would be to focus on property taxes and some of Phil Murphy’s more unpopular COVID mitigation, but that wouldn’t make a difference in the end.

Ciatarelli is not winning Somerset, especially if he loses Morris. I actually think the reverse is more likely.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably more like D+10.

I am thinking Phil Murphy wins by a 55-43 or 56-42 margin. Jack Ciattarelli probably only wins Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset, Sussex, Cape May, Salem, Warren, and Hunderton Counties and loses Morris County when compared to Kim Guadagno in 2017. Really Jack Ciattarelli‘s best strategy would be to focus on property taxes and some of Phil Murphy’s more unpopular COVID mitigation, but that wouldn’t make a difference in the end.

Ciatarelli is not winning Somerset, especially if he loses Morris. I actually think the reverse is more likely.

That could be possible as well. Both counties will probably be pretty close.