Why did Trump underperform in Texas relative to pre 2016 Republicans?

[Motorcity]

Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

[Motorcity]

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.

According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.

Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.

92 and 96 don't really count because of the third party vote

Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.

I know, I live in Tennessee ugh

That said, public polling was what the American public had, unlike the more accurate secret polls the campaigns had access to. Trump jibbersih doesn't count

To the average American who follows politics, Trump over performed in every swing state except Georgia

[Motorcity]

He didn't.

He did better than Ted Cruz, and he was supposed to match.

Houston 'burbs were more Trump heavy than expected, to say nothing of RGV.

According to whom?

He underperformed in both 2016 and 2020 relative to practically all other Republicans in Texas aside from Cruz in 2018 for the last 30 or so years. OP asked why that was and why he didn't win by double digits (which he didn't in 2016 either), not why he didn't match Cruz. And since 2018 was better for Democrats than 2020 practically everywhere except Georgia, Trump only doing 2 points better than Cruz is hardly what I would call an overperformance.

He overperformed the polls that had Texas as a total toss-up, yes, but that's about it. And the polls were off practically everywhere except, again, Georgia. And he still didn't overperform in Texas nearly as much as he did in states like Ohio and Iowa, or even Wisconsin and Michigan which he lost.

Trump did better than Bush 92' and Dole.

92 and 96 don't really count because of the third party vote

Actually, Trump over performed Texas. He won by 6 points, when every poll had him leading by 1-2 points. Basically a tossup

Not only did Trump win Texas by a healthy margin, he won it for Republicans in 2024

Polling is irrelevant. Trump didn't overperform in Texas by any measure. He anticipated he would win Texas by about 5 points, which he did. If you're going to use the polling argument, you would have to say Biden underperformed in Michigan because the polls were completely off and I don't even consider polling. Let's look at previous Presidential candidates again in 2008 and 2012 and tell me Trump overperformed. He had a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than Texas for Christ sake.

I know, I live in Tennessee ugh

That said, public polling was what the American public had, unlike the more accurate secret polls the campaigns had access to. Trump jibbersih doesn't count

To the average American who follows politics, Trump over performed in every swing state except Georgia

The premise is false, in my opinion. Texas never was a swing state. Georgia's margin was way more narrow than Texas was in 2016. I cringed whenever the news labeled Texas a swing state. The mathematical implication require Dallas County to be 70%+ for Biden, Biden carry Collin County by 10%+ which is just so....unrealistic at this point. The voters moving into suburban Atlanta are solidly Dem black voters, while those moving to suburban Texas are mostly non-black. The swing required to flip Texas this cycle was completely irrational.

No one expected Biden to carry Texas nor did anyone think the polls were going to be 100% accurate, just as no one expected Biden to win by 8 points nationally

That said, it was a swing state in the sense Biden could have carried it if he rolled a perfect six. The same couldn't be said for a state like South Carolina or Alaska.