Which losing campaign was more impressive?

[EJ24]

?

[darklordoftech]

Results-wise or in terms of the decisions the campaign made?

[EJ24]

Results-wise or in terms of the decisions the campaign made?

Results.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tough call. Trump probably defied expectations more, but Kerry came closer to actually winning in only needing Ohio.

[Jamison5]

Tough call. Trump probably defied expectations more, but Kerry came closer to actually winning in only needing Ohio.

2020 was closer than 2004 both in terms of the raw number of votes and in terms of the percentage margins. Bush won Ohio by a very comfortable margin still. 2020 was closer in terms of the tipping point % margin than every election going back to 1916 except for 2000.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hard to say as you can make an argument that both should have won but you can also say both should  have lost by 6-7 points

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump was in a structurally better position due to having the incumbency advantage. I'm voting Kerry.

[Skill and Chance]

Kerry, because a wartime incumbent election should not have been close. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tough call. Trump probably defied expectations more, but Kerry came closer to actually winning in only needing Ohio.

2020 was closer than 2004 both in terms of the raw number of votes and in terms of the percentage margins. Bush won Ohio by a very comfortable margin still. 2020 was closer in terms of the tipping point % margin than every election going back to 1916 except for 2000.

That's true, but as mentioned before, Trump was an incumbent and got less electoral votes than Kerry with more states. Like I said, it isn't cut-and-dry but also considering Trump having an iron grip over the GOP base that Kerry didn't with the Democrats. So I think I'm still giving Kerry the slight edge here.

[Mr. Smith]

Kerry

[Utah Neolib]

Kerry

[sting in the rafters]

Kerry managed to come within shouting distance of the White House despite vacillating on the most important issue of the day. He actually won independents outright according to exit polling, only lost because Bush garnered more crossover support in addition to high GOP turnout. In addition, Kerry won with nearly every group who said their most important issue was something other than Iraq or national security/terrorism. His problem was in a high-turnout election, Bush pumped up the socially conservative base even more.

The warning signs for Trump's re-election were there throughout his presidency. The consistent underwater approvals despite 90%+ support from his own party indicated his weakness outside of his base. COVID was a golden opportunity for Trump to expand outside of his base and strengthen his standing with moderates via a rally-around-the-flag effect. Of course, he completely botched it. The police brutality and protests were net neutral, they didn't really change many minds as much as it pumped up both sides even more. However, Trump does deserve credit for the ground game, the Election Day turnout operation obviously went very well and it's why he came within striking distance of holding the Rust Belt swing states.



The tie-breaker for me is who was facing the stronger candidate? Have to go Dubya for being the incumbent.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

?

What do you think?

[Alben Barkley]

An incumbent president who probably could have won re-election fairly easily if he kept his stupid mouth shut and just sold MAGA branded masks, but due to shooting himself in the foot with his incompetence and royally pissing off most of the country instead, lost by a fairly wide electoral and popular vote margin?

Or an underdog challenger who was up against a pretty popular wartime incumbent and came significantly closer in the electoral and popular vote?

Tough one, really hard.

[EJ24]

?

What do you think?

I'm torn and go back and forth.

I voted Kerry, because I do agree that between Bush and Biden, Bush was the stronger candidate in the context of their respective elections. Kerry also got closer in the electoral math.

However, I can see the case for Trump because starting in about June or July 2020, we started to see indications that an electoral route similar to 1980 could be taking place, and that this would be a "change" election. In the end, I don't really think that's what happened. I think Trump held his base and turned them out in very impressive numbers on election day. This led to Trump outperforming most of his polling in Michigan and Wisconsin, and almost winning Pennsylvania again. He was also much stronger in Arizona and Nevada than most were expecting.

All of this happened despite his handling of COVID, a virus which he himself was hospitalized with, after calling it a "democratic hoax" and mocking masks. That's what's impressive about it.