Sanders wins Iowa - 2016 TL

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Oh gosh, Bloomberg and Kasich I guess

[RGM2609]

The Democratic National Convention - the triumph of the insurgents

The party convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania was orderly, unlike the RNC, and dedicated to promoting Sanders and his left-wing ideology. The divisions were there, with the Clintons present at the convention but refusing to speak (Hillary has still not endorsed Bernie Sanders), and many Senators, Representatives, and Governors from red-leaning areas refusing to endorse Sanders and in some cases, like Joe Manchin and Claire McCaskill, outright endorsing Michael Bloomberg. However, Sanders would have none of it. Democrats who opposed him got little to no speaking time while quasi-anonymous early endorsers would get prime-time speeches. It would seem as if the Sanders campaign was desperate to project party unity, a goal it has partially accomplished.

Day 1 - The Movement

The first day of the DNC was even more stacked with Sanders loyalists than the other three. Jeff Merkley gave the keynote speech and Sherrod Brown gave the headliner, both of them bringing forward a populist message, signing praises to Sanders and criticizing the Republican candidate as a fake man of the people who would cut taxes for the wealthy and take social services from the poor. They were joined by various controversial US Representatives like Tulsi Gabbard, Alan Grayson, and Keith Ellison, all of them giving rousing endorsements to the Senators. But perhaps the most controversial speaker of the day was Noam Chomsky, an anti-capitalist activist who was put on the schedule by over-enthusiastic leftists inside the campaign without the prior knowledge of the candidate. His appearance only fueled Republican attacks.

Day 2 - The Obamas

Compared to the leftist overreaches of the first day, the second day of the convention seemed to be pretty normal. Former President Jimmy Carter made great efforts to be able to come to the Convention. He was reportedly enthusiastic about the Sanders victory in the primaries, and his speech was optimistic and promised a better future under President Sanders. Other important figures such as John Kerry and Michael Dukakis spoke as well. However, the headlines were the speeches of Michelle and Barack Obama. Both of them fired up the crowd, giving speeches well-received across the Democratic spectrum praising Sanders as a fighter and attacking Trump and his lack of morals and discipline. Neither of them is a fan of the Vermont socialist and were reportedly shocked to see Clinton lose, but they realize that a Trump presidency would be far worse for their legacy.

Day 3 - Warren

Once again, the Vice Presidential nomination proves to be a major headache. The anti-Sanders delegates attempted to prevent the nomination of the Massachusetts Senator and many of them coalesced around Cory Booker. However, Warren still prevailed. She gave a feisty acceptance speech in which she slammed Wall Street and the billionaires and fired up the crowd by promising to change the political system for good. However, she also got a lot of heat for openly declaring herself and Sanders in favor of socialized medicine once again. Many expressed excitement at the thought of a Warren vs Palin debate, while others thought such an event would go off the rails before it began.

Day 4 - Sanders

This day was dedicated to the nominee, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. With many speeches from Vermont allies and ordinary citizens who worked with him over the years, it was designed to paint the humane side of the often grumpy socialist. After a lot of persuasion, Al Gore agreed to speak in favor of Sanders as the only candidate who takes climate change seriously. Russ Feingold also spoke and expressed his rousing support for the nominee. Very controversially, Cenk Uygur was also invited to speak, in a move now ordered by the candidate himself. While nowhere near the Chomsky mess, Uygur speaking did little to reassure Clinton supporters. Finally, Sanders himself spoke and delivered what was considered to be one of the best speeches of his career. He made a brief and clear case for his policy priorities, most of which are popular, moderated his combative rhetoric towards the establishment, and called for unity against Trump and Palin, constantly reminding Democrats of whom they are running against.

Following the Democratic Convention, Sanders regained his healthy lead over Trump as the General Election campaign was finally starting.

General Election Polling - National
Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - 47,7%
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 40,4%
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY)/Governor John Kasich (R-OH) - 10,5%
Former Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Former Governor Bill Weld (L-MA) - 1,3%
Former CIA Officer Evan McMullin (R-UT)/Consultant Mindy Finn (R-DC) - 0,2%

[RGM2609]

Bloomberg tries to reach 15% with ad blitz as the race remains rather static

Well aware that the free coverage received by the main party nominees had the effect of reducing his standing in the race, Michael Bloomberg has launched a massive ad blitz, one of the most expensive in American history focused primarily but not exclusively on suburban media markets. His ads cast Sanders and Trump as dangerous extremists who would destroy the status quo and America as the people know it as well as promoting the managerial experience of Michael Bloomberg and his moderate views. The goal of this was to get Bloomberg back to 15% in the polls, as his campaign believes that only by being part of the debates would the voters perceive him as a major candidate.

The two other campaigns have stayed on message in August, as both Sanders and Trump fire up massive crowds everywhere they go. Warren focused on campaigning in New Hampshire, the 2nd District of Maine, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina while Sanders went on a trip to Nevada, Arizona, and even urban centers in Texas but largely stayed in the Midwestern states of Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has also been laser-focused on the Midwest where he delivered grievance-filled, race-baiting, and populist speeches to white working-class voters in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Palin went to the Floridian panhandle, rural areas of Georgia and North Carolina as well as one trip to Miami and to Texas. Her speeches were much more focused on social conservatism and anti-socialism but otherwise just as rambling as those of Trump.

Polls disagreed on the trajectory of the race. While some showed the gap between Trump and Sanders narrowing, most showed it remained static at around 8% as Bloomberg gained from both candidates and is now right under the 15% threshold. Regardless, the Sanders campaign felt optimistic going into September.

[Frodo]

It's been awhile... 

[Cassandra]

Love this timeline!

[lord_moxley]

Inject more into my veins I fiend for more of this timeline

[Elcaspar]

Yes! This is just what i needed more of! Continue the great work!

[RGM2609]

Thank you so much for your interest! I have been on vacation since the last update but I will resume writing once I get back home tomorrow!

[RGM2609]

Sanders suffers a heart attack, vows to fight on

On September 11th, shortly after a 9/11 memorial ceremony from which he had to leave after feeling unwell, Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack and was hospitalized for a week. While he was not in danger and is now mostly recovered, the attack has spurred a lot of conspiracy theories about the health of the candidate. Many online conservatives and far-rightists have claimed that Sanders is already dead or at least in a coma, and those theories were seemingly taken up by Sarah Palin who, at a rally in Pensacola, claimed to have insider knowledge that the Democrats have been using a look-alike. Donald Trump said that while he does not know whether Sanders is dead or not, he still might die during his term and leave the Presidency to Pocahontas. Bloomberg declined to engage with the conspiracy theories, but still called the heart attack alarming and bragged about his own great health.

At an event in Des Moines on September 18th, the first one since the heart attack, Sanders reassured voters that he is feeling great and he is healthy enough to be President. He said that he challenges Trump and Bloomberg to keep up with his schedule and see how they are doing, which prompted angry tweets from the Republican nominee. Regardless, his numbers have taken a dive, and he is now only leading Trump by 4 points in the RCP average.

[RGM2609]

Hillary Clinton endorses Bloomberg, pushes him over 15%

In what may be one of the most consequential endorsements in recent history, former Secretary of State and candidate for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton, has endorsed Michael Bloomberg today at a rally in Los Angeles, adding to the ever-growing list of Democratic and Republican public figures backing the independent ticket. In her speech, which drew the largest crowd seen by the Bloomberg campaign this cycle (though still far behind what Sanders and Trump have on a daily basis), Hillary Clinton claimed that while she has her political disagreements with the former Mayor and his running mate, the ticket is the only sane choice against two dangerous candidates. She has been uncharacteristically emotional in her speech, with passionate attacks against Bernie Sanders, about whom she said that he is a dangerous radical and that nobody likes him in Washington, claiming that he is just another career politician posing into a change agent. While she got a lot of push back from Democrats, the endorsement seems to have boosted Bloomberg over the 15% needed to take part in the debates. Thus, the Commission announced that the first debate will be between Sanders, Trump and Bloomberg.

[swf541]

Loving this tl, looking forward to more

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

snip

This is incredibly unrealistic.

[RGM2609]

snip

This is incredibly unrealistic.

My goal is certainly not realism. Truth be told, if Sanders had won Iowa, Clinton would probably still have won the nomination.

However, this part is not unbelievable in my view. Clinton went out of her way to stop Sanders OTL, those weird comments from before Iowa come to mind. I think that if she actually lost the nomination to him, her frustration would have been much bigger. And while prominent establishment Democrats like Obama and Pelosi issued half-hearted endorsements of Sanders, many moderates ITTL endorse Bloomberg.

[RGM2609]

Alright so do you have advice/comments on this TL or things you would like me to write other than debates&other campaign developments?

[lord_moxley]

Senate and house races would be litty

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Alright so do you have advice/comments on this TL or things you would like me to write other than debates&other campaign developments?

Debates

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Senate and house races would be litty

Yeah, since while the race for the White House is multi-polar, the downballot is presumably not.

[RGM2609]

Bernie Sanders

Bernie was nervous. He made it further than anyone ever expected him to. All those lobbyists and random congressmen and White House officials laughed when he announced that he is running. Well, they are not laughing anymore. However, as Election Day came closer and closer, Bernie could feel his heart beating faster and faster. He knew why that heart attack happened. Stress. If he loses to the worst Republican nominee in recent history, his movement is dead and the Wall Street-backed moderates will rule over the Democratic Party for decades. He can not let that happen. He had to win, or die trying.

The rather annoying voice of Lester Holt announcing the candidates interrupted his thoughts and he had to go on the stage and wave to the cheering crowd. Next to him, two arrogant billionaires with their smug faces. It was a great pleasure to spend time with them... He spent his entire career fighting guys like them, now he had the chance to defeat them for good.

[RGM2609]

Michael Bloomberg

And so it began. The first question annoyingly went to Sanders first. Something about jobs and pockets. Whatever. The socialist grandpa went on the classical delusions, promising that he would rein in Wall Street and big corporations, restore fairness, put the poor and middle class first, increase the minimum wage. Then Trump went on. God, what has that party come down to. Massive tax cuts, bringing back jobs. He is lying and he knows it. Then he went on to call Sanders a dangerous communist who would ruin the economy. Following that, the whole segment collapsed into a furious fight between the two radicals, which left Michael and Holt just standing there watching.

”Mr. Trump is a phony as always, he claims to be with the people when in fact he just wants to cut taxes and regulations for the crooks on Wall Street. My plan would give the American people access to the social services that every other major country on Earth...”

”You have been in Congress for decades, and you have done nothing! Why have you not done anything until now? Your proposals would bring the United States on the brink of maybe the worst recession in history...”

At last, Lester Holt intervened and made both Sanders and Trump shut up. He said he wants to bring Michael in. He happily took the opportunity.

”Look, what we have just watched shows the two dangerous, radical candidates that divide America. Unfortunately, our two major parties have failed us in nominating them. However, there is another choice. I seek to unite the people of our country with a sensitive, centrist agenda that would make their lives better in clear ways...”

At that point Sanders interrupted, accusing Bloomberg of wanting to maintain the status quo. He dodged. Then Trump intervened, railing against free trade. This debate truly was a mess.

[RGM2609]

Sanders, narrowly victorious after chaotic debate

The first presidential debate of the 2016 cycle shows just how hard it is to moderate a debate involving 3 controversial candidates. The fight between Sanders and Trump during the economic segment was just a prequel as the two major-party nominees sparred on almost every issue. According to the polls, Sanders narrowly won the debate, but many thought that it was a draw or that no one won. Debate watchers thought that Sanders made a better case as to why he is the best choice for the pocketbooks, however many of the Trump attacks on socialism did not go unnoticed and some skeptical Republicans seem to be returning back to the fold. Michael Bloomberg was largely forgettable, as he got little speaking time and did not interact a lot with the other candidates. However, he might benefit from Sanders and Trump both seeing drops in their favorability after the debate.

Who won the debate?
Bernie Sanders - 35%
Donald Trump - 30%
Michael Bloomberg - 17%
No one - 18%

[RGM2609]

General Election Polling - National

Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - 42,2%
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 37,4%
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY)/Governor John Kasich (R-OH) - 17,9%
Former Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Former Governor Bill Weld (L-MA) - 2,2%
Former CIA Officer Evan McMullin (R-UT)/Consultant Mindy Finn (R-DC) - 0,3%

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

#ILikeMike
#Bloomberger
#Meetinthemiddle

[RGM2609]

Democrats favored to take back the Senate

As Democrat Bernie Sanders leads over Republican Donald Trump in national polls, so do down-ballot Democrats. The Democrats seem favored to flip the needed 4 seats if Sanders wins or 5 if Trump does to make Mitch McConnell the Senate Minority Leader. Two seats appear to be pretty safe pick-ups for them - Wisconsin, where former Senator Russ Feingold is leading by an average of 11 points in the polls over incumbent Republican Ron Johnson, and Illinois, where Representative Tammy Duckworth has been leading in every poll released in months, even if by narrow margins in some. Another seat that Democrats ought to feel good about is Indiana, where former Senator Evan Bayh is up by 6 over Todd Young. Those 3 seats would not be enough however for a majority.

Two seats where Democrats are up by only 2-3 points are Pennsylvania and Missouri. In Pennsylvania, former Chief of Staff Katie McGinty seems to be a narrow favorite against Senator Pat Toomey, though if you are a Republican, do not give up on hope for now. And the biggest surprise of this cycle is probably the Missouri race, a reliably red state in which Secretary of State Jason Kander is performing admirably against Senator Roy Blunt. It is this race that Senate Republicans are most worried about, and they hope for the Trump coattails to save them this seat.

There are two states in which the race is at a dead heat - North Carolina, where Deborah Ross is trying to unseat Senator Richard Burr and, in a bright spot for Republicans, Nevada, their only pick-up opportunity this cycle, Joe Heck being a formidable candidate against Catherine Cortez Masto, the preferred successor of Harry Reid. Marco Rubio is running away with the Florida Senate race, while Michael Bennett seems like a sure bet for re-election.

[RGM2609]

John Kasich

Jesus Christ. How could the Republican Party fall so low.

That is what John Kasich thought as he listened to the moderator introducing Sarah freaking Palin as the Republican nominee for the Vice Presidency of the United States. Once, Republicanism meant Ronald Reagan. Now, it means being a crazy, racist demagogue. That is why he joined the ticket of Michael Bloomberg, towards whom he has no sympathy. To start creating an alternative to a GOP controlled by the far-right. And maybe, just maybe, lead the rebuilding once Trump and Palin lose.

The first question is something generic about what recommends the candidate for being Vice President. John got to be first.

”I believe that my record of getting things done in Congress and Ohio by working on a bi-partisan basis will help as I will help Michael Bloomberg transcend partisanship, division, and gridlock to put forward a centrist agenda to move this country forward...”

Then Warren got to speak next.

”This Democratic ticket is the only one who has a plan to make your lives better. We care about you. We want to expand the social safety nets, we want to ensure universal healthcare, we want to tax the wealthy at a fair rate so that billionaires like Trump and Bloomberg can not pay less in taxes than a janitor. The other candidates only have bland talking points about moderation or racial dog-whistling...”

Meh. She was pretty persuasive but everyone knows those things are socialist delusions. Now, the moment the entire country has been waiting for...

”These crony capitalists, these crooks seek to stop this movement to restore America with all of its pride, its glory. I have gone around the country and I have seen the real America. The patriots and the working moms and the fighters for liberty. They do not want a communist government to dictate their lives! To take away their guns, their freedom, to defund the troops! They want to protect the troops, they love the troops...”

Yeah. As expected...

[lord_moxley]

Bump