Majority-Amish counties?

[Biden his time]

While of course the Amish aren't gonna take over anytime soon, I've always thought it's inevitable that they take over certain counties in the near future.

Just think about it, where do the Amish live? In rural Midwestern counties which are facing extensive outmigration. How fast do they grow? 35% - 40% every decade due to a high fertility rate.

Do the math, Amish-majority counties are gonna happen soon. I'll give an example as to how this could occur, using data for a specific county in Indiana where the Amish make up a large proportion of the population currently. It's called Adams County, Indiana, and it has a relatively fast-growing community. Maybe a different sect or something but it isn't all that far off from the Amish average.

2015 - Total Population Estimated: 34,962


Amish Population: 8,275
Non-Amish Population: 26,687

2020 - Total Population Estimated: 35,839

Amish Population: 10,305 (+25% since 2015)
Non-Amish Population: 25,534 (-4% since 2015)


Now let's say that every five years the Amish population and the Non-Amish population keep growing and shrinking the same way. What does the future look like? It looks like this:

2025 - Total Population: 37,393

Amish Population: 12,881 (34.5% of the population)
Non-Amish Population: 24,512

2030 - Total Population: 39,633

Amish Population: 16,101 (40.6% of the population)
Non-Amish Population: 23,532

2035 - Total Population: 42,717

Amish Population: 20,126 (47.1% of the population)
Non-Amish Population: 22,591

2040 - Total Population: 46,845

Amish Population: 25,158 (53.7% of the population)
Non-Amish Population: 21,687


And just like that the Amish make a majority (even if this study is somewhat flawed). Even if they grow a little less slowly to be more in-line with the general Amish population, you can see that they'd still have a shot at taking the majority. Under the scenario where they grow 20% every five years or 15% every five years, the majority occurs in 2045 and 2055 respectively.

Also, you might be thinking that don't Amish leave? They have a retention rate of 85% - 90% as per a cursory google search. So even the tiny amount that do leave barely make a difference. And no indications that this retention rate is dropping.


So what do you all think? Is the time nigh that Amish take over certain midwestern rural counties? Or no? And what will this mean? Politically, culturally, economically?

[jimrtex]

What is the Amish population of Holmes County, OH?

[Biden his time]

What is the Amish population of Holmes County, OH?

No exact numbers according to the Amish database.

The area as a whole has 37,800 Amish but it includes surrounding counties.
Rural people need space to spread out seemingly.

I checked census data language by household and it says that 39.4% of households in 2013 in Holmes County spoke an Indo-European language not Spanish or English. That's probably where the Amish are at. Because of their large household sizes, we can't say for sure how big they are unfortunately. Maybe they make up 45% of the population?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What is the Amish population of Holmes County, OH?

According to Wikipedia, it was 42% Amish in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Holmes County, OH might become so by the next decade. I can't see anywhere else.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania is still growing at a decent clip, albeit much slower than it has over the past few decades, but enough of that is the non-Amish population in and around the city of Lancaster itself that I don't see it becoming majority-Amish unless Lancaster itself undergoes an extended period of shrinking. More rural counties like Mifflin might be future candidates, however.

[VPH]

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania is still growing at a decent clip, albeit much slower than it has over the past few decades, but enough of that is the non-Amish population in and around the city of Lancaster itself that I don't see it becoming majority-Amish unless Lancaster itself undergoes an extended period of shrinking. More rural counties like Mifflin might be future candidates, however.

People who hear about "Amish Country" in Lancaster County assume the whole place is Holmes County, OH when Lancaster is a respectably sized, very diverse city much larger than its surroundings.

[Bismarck]

Holmes County, OH might become so by the next decade. I can't see anywhere else.

Lagrange County Indiana isn’t too far behind.

[jimrtex]

What is the Amish population of Holmes County, OH?

According to Wikipedia, it was 42% Amish in 2010.

Lots of statistics here:

Amish Studies

The Amish population has doubled between 2000-2020.

The largest concentrations are Lancaster, PA; Holmes, OH; and Elkhart/LaGrange, IN.

These settlements are longstanding (PA from the 1760s, OH from 1808, and IN from 1849).

Lots and lots of settlement are quite new post-WW II and into the 21st Century, with more growth in newer areas such as NY, WI, KY, and IA, presumably as a result of some sort of colonization effort.

[Skill and Chance]

In the short term, yes, this will probably happen, but in the long term, keep in mind that the Amish lifestyle is simply incompatible with high population density or urban living.  They will have to come more into line with mainstream American culture as population density grows or spread out across tons of rural land. 

[dpmapper]

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania is still growing at a decent clip, albeit much slower than it has over the past few decades, but enough of that is the non-Amish population in and around the city of Lancaster itself that I don't see it becoming majority-Amish unless Lancaster itself undergoes an extended period of shrinking. More rural counties like Mifflin might be future candidates, however.

People who hear about "Amish Country" in Lancaster County assume the whole place is Holmes County, OH when Lancaster is a respectably sized, very diverse city much larger than its surroundings.

And it's not just the city of Lancaster; many (if not most) of the smaller towns and cities in the county are also non-Amish, and they are also growing with exurban development. 

[Tintrlvr]

Holmes County, OH might become so by the next decade. I can't see anywhere else.

I don't think the Amish population in Holmes County is growing much. Most young Amish families are relocating to surrounding counties because there isn't viable farmland available in Holmes County to support new young Amish families, and Amish mostly don't live in towns, even small towns like Millersburg, Berlin or Nashville, which are almost entirely non-Amish (though lots of Mennonites). My family lives nearby (in Knox County), and the Amish population is surging there as a result, especially around Danville.

[DINGO Joe]

Long story short

For awhile in the 2000s my father-in-law had a small factory outside of Akron that made rubber gaskets primarily for concrete piping (he is the Hank Hill version of gaskets and gasket accessories) and he employed quite a few Amish workers.  Since the Amish don't drive (though they will operate machinery) there was a service that ran commuter vans picking up the Amish.  There was tension between Amish and non-Amish workers as they Amish were viewed as keeping wages down.  My father-in-law said he hired them because they were reliable, implying that the other workers weren't so reliable, but it wouldn't surprise me if the wages aspect played into it too.  The whole thing blew-up with the 2008 bust of the housing bubble.

Anyway, there is only so much farmland out there, so the Amish have little choice other than enter some basic trades like construction and factory work.

My parents also live just outside of Lancaster in this period too and I was under the impression that some Amish were selling out their higher priced land and moving further into the interior of PA (like Mifflin where the land was cheaper).

[Flyersfan232]

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania is still growing at a decent clip, albeit much slower than it has over the past few decades, but enough of that is the non-Amish population in and around the city of Lancaster itself that I don't see it becoming majority-Amish unless Lancaster itself undergoes an extended period of shrinking. More rural counties like Mifflin might be future candidates, however.

the amish build a amish city

[HAnnA MArin County]

It's got a long a ways to go, but Daviess County, MO has the largest Amish population in the state. There's also a large Amish presence in Southwest Missouri in Webster County near Seymour (about half an hour east of Springfield), one of the 12 largest Amish communities in the country.

[Biden his time]

Interesting data from the 2015 - 2019 American Community Survey regarding language usage

% of Population 5+ speaking an "Other Indo-European Language" (all expect English and Spanish):

46.8% - Holmes County, Ohio

27.1% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
46.3% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
59.3% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

40.3% - LaGrange County, Indiana

19.3% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
38.2% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
57.1% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

12.6% - Adams County, Indiana

5.8% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
11.0% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
21.3% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

11.8% - Geauga County, Ohio

6.5% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
11.1% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
20.0% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

11.1% - Daviess County, Missouri

0.9% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
11.4% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
21.3% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

9.2% - Wayne County, Ohio

4.0% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
8.0% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
18.3% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

8.0% - Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

5.0% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
7.3% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
13.4% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17

7.6% - Coshocton County, Ohio

1.4% - Proportion of those aged 65 and above
8.6% - Proportion of those aged 18 to 64
11.2% - Proportion of those aged 5 to 17


Also, updated poll to make it readable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

[Tintrlvr]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

I don't think that can be read to mean Amish only. Many Mennonites also speak German dialects at home.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

I don't think that can be read to mean Amish only. Many Mennonites also speak German dialects at home.

Fair point.

[Biden his time]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

As "Tintrlvr" says, of course, they aren't all Amish (but they definitely all are some sort of "special" group, most rural Midwestern counties are less than 1%), but another part of this is that the proportion is simply growing incredibly fast.

Just see the previous percentages of people speaking an "Other Indo-European Language" as per five-year American Community Survey data. There's a lot of this (for simplicity I'm only showing the average year here BTW, since the 2019 5-Year ACS truly reflects the year 2017):

Holmes County, Ohio

2017 - 46.8%
2013 - 46.0%
2008 - 43.0%

LaGrange County, Indiana

2017 - 40.3%
2013 - 39.5%
2008 - 34.7%

Tons of marginal fluctuation going on, for instance watching Holmes reach as high as 48% in one year and Adams County getting past 14%, but there is a certain trend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

As "Tintrlvr" says, of course, they aren't all Amish (but they definitely all are some sort of "special" group, most rural Midwestern counties are less than 1%), but another part of this is that the proportion is simply growing incredibly fast.

Just see the previous percentages of people speaking an "Other Indo-European Language" as per five-year American Community Survey data. There's a lot of this (for simplicity I'm only showing the average year here BTW, since the 2019 5-Year ACS truly reflects the year 2017):

Holmes County, Ohio

2017 - 46.8%
2013 - 46.0%
2008 - 43.0%

LaGrange County, Indiana

2017 - 40.3%
2013 - 39.5%
2008 - 34.7%

Tons of marginal fluctuation going on, for instance watching Holmes reach as high as 48% in one year and Adams County getting past 14%, but there is a certain trend.

Is it fair to say Holmes County OH is plurality Amish at this point?

[Biden his time]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

As "Tintrlvr" says, of course, they aren't all Amish (but they definitely all are some sort of "special" group, most rural Midwestern counties are less than 1%), but another part of this is that the proportion is simply growing incredibly fast.

Just see the previous percentages of people speaking an "Other Indo-European Language" as per five-year American Community Survey data. There's a lot of this (for simplicity I'm only showing the average year here BTW, since the 2019 5-Year ACS truly reflects the year 2017):

Holmes County, Ohio

2017 - 46.8%
2013 - 46.0%
2008 - 43.0%

LaGrange County, Indiana

2017 - 40.3%
2013 - 39.5%
2008 - 34.7%

Tons of marginal fluctuation going on, for instance watching Holmes reach as high as 48% in one year and Adams County getting past 14%, but there is a certain trend.

Is it fair to say Holmes County OH is plurality Amish at this point?

It's arguable, and definitely true from a religious demographics perspective
You might even go farther and say it already has an Amish majority (I chose Option #1 on the poll)

[David Hume]

Just out of curiosity, could Amish ever get their own VRA seat?

[Хahar 🤔]

Just out of curiosity, could Amish ever get their own VRA seat?

There is a wide spectrum of Amish practice and it is not universally the case that Amish do not vote, but in general they do not engage in the political process. It is hard to imagine a credible argument that the Amish need representation that they do not desire.

[Tintrlvr]

47% for Holmes County OH is higher than expected.

As "Tintrlvr" says, of course, they aren't all Amish (but they definitely all are some sort of "special" group, most rural Midwestern counties are less than 1%), but another part of this is that the proportion is simply growing incredibly fast.

Just see the previous percentages of people speaking an "Other Indo-European Language" as per five-year American Community Survey data. There's a lot of this (for simplicity I'm only showing the average year here BTW, since the 2019 5-Year ACS truly reflects the year 2017):

Holmes County, Ohio

2017 - 46.8%
2013 - 46.0%
2008 - 43.0%

LaGrange County, Indiana

2017 - 40.3%
2013 - 39.5%
2008 - 34.7%

Tons of marginal fluctuation going on, for instance watching Holmes reach as high as 48% in one year and Adams County getting past 14%, but there is a certain trend.

Something of a trend, but you can tell also that there's a certain upper-bound in those counties given the slow further growth. The "problem" as it were is that there is only some much productive farmland in each county, and a large portion of the population, probably a majority even in a very rural county like Holmes, will always come from people living in towns rather than farmsteads, which is simply incompatible with true Amish observance (though not with Mennonites that embrace some modern technologies, such as cars or electricity). So the growth pressure is more outward to surrounding counties (which have had much larger growth from a lower base) than in the counties that are the centers of Amish culture.