Will Rubio win Miami-Dade in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

Does Marco Rubio carry Miami-Dade County in 2022?

[Roll Roons]

I don't think so, but it could be within 5 points.

[Donerail]

Very doubtful. Would require 2020 margins among Hispanics and substantial inroads with some other D-voting group — I don't see Rubio being the one to produce a substantial shift among Haitians or something. The D floor in Dade is fairly high and unlikely to crack this cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, because the race is already completove Grayson internal has Rubio only up 5 pts not 20 pts, Grayson or Deming's can win in 500 days

Biden has done good as Prez, he gave everyone stimulus checks and Rubio is helping Rs Filibuster Voting Rights and Commission

[SnowLabrador]

Lean Yes. Rubio's going to win by at least 10 points, and Miami-Dade probably swings further R than the statewide average.

[AGA]

Trump already did very well with Cubans, so there wouldn't that much room for Rubio too grow. Rubio will probably win by a few more points than Trump, though, so I'd expect Miami-Dade County to come within five points.

[NewYorkExpress]

Possibly.

However, Rubio's going to get crushed everywhere else in South Florida (Demings will dominate in Broward and Palm Beach), and the I-4 Corridor should be a bunch of easy Demings victories as well, so Demings should still have a chance, even if she loses Miami-Dade.

[UWS]

No, because the race is already completove Grayson internal has Rubio only up 5 pts not 20 pts, Grayson or Deming's can win in 500 days

Biden has done good as Prez, he gave everyone stimulus checks and Rubio is helping Rs Filibuster Voting Rights and Commission

This is an internal and internals are usually trash polls so they don’t really count. If Rubio is ahead by 5 in this poll, that means he’s ahead by more in real life. And also a poll showed Rubio ahead of Stephanie Murphy by 10 points and Murphy would have been a stronger candidate than Demings.

As it relates to Miami-Dade, Rubio will likely perform better in that county than Trump did. He already outperform him there in 2016 in the general election and he is popular among Cuban Americans who represent an important part of the local population. So I predict it the results in Miami Dade could be within 5 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's are Chamber of Commerce poll

[TDAS04]

I doubt it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that Rubio won't win but there is plenty of time before Election day, DeSantis and Rubio haven't been scrutinized and DeSantis hasn't been scrutinized since 2018, the lead will be only 5 once there is scrutiny, just like Sununu, there are zero ads running it's all about fundraising now

No, Rubio won't win Miami

[MATTROSE94]

Possibly.

However, Rubio's going to get crushed everywhere else in South Florida (Demings will dominate in Broward and Palm Beach), and the I-4 Corridor should be a bunch of easy Demings victories as well, so Demings should still have a chance, even if she loses Miami-Dade.

I don’t think Val Demings has too much of a chance for victory. Maybe at best she loses 51-47 or 52-46. Marco Rubio is an extremely popular Senator and has a relatable base with Cuban Americans as well as extremist Trump voters. 

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Probably

[Lognog]

Not ruling it out, but Demmings might not a decent campaign that results in a non humiliating loss for dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably

No, because the Election is in 599 days not 90 days and Rubio and DeSantis haven't been SCRUTINIZED yet, Crist running for Gov is the best thing for D's, DeSantis doesn't reach out to Afro Americans like Rock Scott, Afro Americans congrats to Rick Scott when he won, no prominent Afro American congratulations to DeSantis after he beat Gillium, because he a TRUMP supporter

Val or Grayson and Crist in debates will scrutinize DeSantis and Rubio, and come close to winning, FL is a R plus 2 state

[Non Swing Voter]

hot take - Rubio does worse than Trump in Miami-Dade in 2022. 

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm too lazy to reiterate my points about Rubio's strengths in Miami-Dade County, so just see what I've written in previous posts related to this subject. And in answer to your question, I can see Rubio winning Miami-Dade County, though it's unlikely, or perhaps losing it but by plurality:

Dade County gubernatorial results by year:

Year	Dem	Rep	Margin
2018	59.94%	39.00%	20.95 pp
2014	58.44%	39.32%	19.12 pp
2010	56.29%	42.00%	14.29 pp
2006	53.32%	45.30%	8.02 pp
2002	46.47%	52.96%	6.50 pp
1998	47.51%	52.49%	4.99 pp
1994	52.04%	47.96%	4.09 pp
1990	62.69%	37.31%	25.37 pp
1986	49.28%	50.72%	1.43 pp

I'm not seeing any rightward trend here; what I am seeing is four consecutive elections where Democratic performance improved from the previous election. Are you basing your statement entirely on the results of the 2020 presidential election?

Not entirely. It's also based on the fact that Rubio being Cuban may give him an advantage, and add to that the fact that 2022 may well be a good GOP year, and that might put Rubio over the edge in Miami-Dade in 2022. Murphy beat Rubio by far less than the margins in your table; he won by just 11.3%. While the 'just' seems unwarranted, you need to remember Trump lost Miami-Dade by even less, and I imagine some Murphy/Trump voters will switch to Rubio. In addition he already likely has some Cuban Biden voters, which he should largely retain, and he'll likely do better overall given the expected red wave year. Perhaps outright victory is unlikely, but it's plausible, and a plurality victory for Demings is a serious possibility.

What Democrats shouldn't try to do is to pretend, even to themselves, that Florida is in play. I can see that most of them expect OH to go red, but they're less pessmistic about Florida - well, they really should be. Rubio won by 7.7% in 2016 after breaking a promise to not run. Let's say the 2022 environment nationally is somewhat similar to 2016. Well, even then, Rubio will win - BY A LOT, as Trump would say. In 2016 Rubio kept the margin down in Miami-Dade County. Since it's shifted to the right and Rubio (who is Cuban) is popular there, I don't see it altogether out of the question that it goes Republican, or Democratic by plurality. And with Miami-Dade Rubio's margin will likely go up to 9% or so.

I mostly agree with your map, but I don't think it would be overestimating Rubio's support to make Florida Safe Republican. It voted for him by 7.7% in 2016, and 2022 will very possibly be a better year for the GOP. And because Southeast Florida's politics may have shifted to the right, Rubio (who is Cuban), could even possibly flip Miami-Dade County, sealing his win and expanding his margin. My guess, given Southeast FL's rightward shift, the fact that 2022 will likely be a red year, and Rubio's popularity in the state, is that he win's by at least 9% or so, maybe 10%. I can guarantee that no Democrat will beat him, whoever they nominate in 2022 - Demings, Crist, Murphy or Fried.

[Xing]

This red Miami-Dade fantasy is weird and quite silly. Hot take: Rubio is more likely to do worse than Trump than to win Miami-Dade.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. I actually agree that he could do worse than Trump. However, the narrative of Miami not being the stronghold that Democrats can rely on to win in Florida anymore will still persist. Not that record margins in the county even mattered either, if 2016 was any indication.

[GALeftist]

[Suburbia]

I have to say, potentially, yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, because the Surfside and Cuban crisis have how's Rubio and DeSantis polls, Deming's was the James Carville pick, she isn't gonna make win, he was talking about Demings challenge to Rubio since Nov 2020, it's not working out

[Calthrina950]

No, although it will almost certainly be within single digits, and I could see Rubio outperforming Trump by a few points.

[BoiseBoy]

No, but I would not be surprised if he did.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This red Miami-Dade fantasy is weird and quite silly. Hot take: Rubio is more likely to do worse than Trump than to win Miami-Dade.

Cubans love Trump's machismo. Rubio is Cuban, but he is a boring establishment politician. He is not going to win Miami Dade.