Let's talk about Alaska

[President Johnson]

I've now read a couple of times this may be a sleeper battleground state or at least trend more Democratic. What's the specific evidence for that? I kinda doubt the 2016-2020 swing means much if anything by considering third parties were much stronger in 2016 and Joe Biden overall did better than Hillary nationwide. Trump won Alaska 53-43% in 2020, which isn't that close. There isn't much population change either. Or do I miss something here?

[Ferguson97]

I think it's the Democrats' Vermont. By demographics, Republicans should be doing very well in Vermont, but it's one of the most Democratic states in the country. Alaska isn't exactly a stronghold, it only went to Trump by 10 points, but I don't see Democrats flipping it soon.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2020 was the highest share of the vote Dems have gotten in Alaska since 1964

[PSOL]

I do think by 2028 it will become a swing state, but by 2024 is just too early. Anchorage candidate Forrest Dunbar did just barely lose to his Republican opponent, but local races do not translate to national votes as the ticket-splitting in 2020 shown, and such analysis doesn’t take into account the huge Republican margins in the suburbs of Anchorage and to a lesser extent all Alaskan “Exurbs”.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think it will quite reach the battleground state point by 2024, but it may continue trending left.

Also I appreciate that this is being brought up, because for all the concern trolling about negligible swings to Trump in Clinton states like California and Illinois; Republicans should be talking about Alaska, among a few other states, far more.

[Minnesota Mike]

Alaska is not going to be a battleground in the near future although in a Democratic landslide a Democrat could squeeze out a win. Who knows down the road. It was not that long ago Colorado and Virginia were considered battlegrounds and Alaska was closer than either of then in 2020.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The movement is promising, but for the foreseeable future the state's mouth is too tight around the teat of the petrochemical industry for it to become a genuine liability for the GOP. It worries me to think of what developments might be necessary for that to change.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This far out, I rate Alaska as Likely R in 2024. Theoretically winnable and indeed winnable but extremely hard to come about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah if Gross can upset Kelly which is a possibility, she is a female Trump, in a tsunami, AK is in play in 2024.

Just like Rs understimate Ryan, Jackson and Kunce, let's he clear in a tsunami, will those flip, but this is the first midterm since 2002 that an INCUMBENT Prez is above 50

[Utah Neolib]

If you read this from any other way, you’d think this thread was about Allah

[izixs]

If you read this from any other way, you’d think this thread was about Allah

Hmm... if there was a mass movement of folks converting is Islam in Alaska, would the new pro-Allah vote change the state's voting behavior?

[Pericles]

If you read this from any other way, you’d think this thread was about Allah

I thought it was about Alabama, which would be pretty random, but this is Atlas!

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think it's the Democrats' Vermont. By demographics, Republicans should be doing very well in Vermont, but it's one of the most Democratic states in the country. Alaska isn't exactly a stronghold, it only went to Trump by 10 points, but I don't see Democrats flipping it soon.

Alternately it’s the Democrats West Virginia circa the 90s, where demographics say they should do well but the GOP dominates the state until the bottom falls out very quickly

[Crumpets]

A big reason Alaska has been so conservative is that the economy of its main urban center was focused on oil. There are some naturally deeply conservative areas around Wasilla and Palmer, but Anchorage following the same trend as all other major cities and flipping to Biden is a big warning sign for Republicans that the local economy alone won't be enough to save them indefinitely. I'm not sure what the economy of Alaska looks like these days - I imagine oil is still a huge part - but the extent to which the growth is in other sectors will be a big determining factor in whether the trends towards the Democrats will continue over the next few cycles.

If you read this from any other way, you’d think this thread was about Allah

I'm sure the Muslim-Jamaican diaspora in Anchorage will get right on starting the Allah-Ska revival movement we've all been waiting for.

[SWE]

The biggest city in Alaska has voted for exactly two democrats for president in its entire history: LBJ and Joe Biden. Alaska's long term trends are definitely not reducible to Biden being a better candidate than Hillary. Alaska probably won't flip soon, but assuming Biden improves his overall performance in 2024 with an incumbency advantage (which is far from a guarantee but this far out looks like the most likely of many possible timelines), I could see Alaska as looking similar to where Iowa and Ohio are now, and that's pretty big movement considering where the state was not that long ago.

[Spectator]

Alaska is a less-pressing Trump state that the GOP needs to keep an eye on compared to Texas and North Carolina, but the warning signs are there. The GOP can’t afford for the Democrats to start winning Anchorage like the blowout margins Democrats win in other cities of a similar size in the continental US.

[President Johnson]

Alaska is a less-pressing Trump state that the GOP needs to keep an eye on compared to Texas and North Carolina, but the warning signs are there. The GOP can’t afford for the Democrats to start winning Anchorage like the blowout margins Democrats win in other cities of a similar size in the continental US.

True, I just wonder why Anchorage and Fairbanks aren't more Democratic?

[Devils30]

Alaska is a less-pressing Trump state that the GOP needs to keep an eye on compared to Texas and North Carolina, but the warning signs are there. The GOP can’t afford for the Democrats to start winning Anchorage like the blowout margins Democrats win in other cities of a similar size in the continental US.

Dems do well with rural natives so a drop in Anchorage is risky for the GOP

[SWE]

Alaska is a less-pressing Trump state that the GOP needs to keep an eye on compared to Texas and North Carolina, but the warning signs are there. The GOP can’t afford for the Democrats to start winning Anchorage like the blowout margins Democrats win in other cities of a similar size in the continental US.

True, I just wonder why Anchorage and Fairbanks aren't more Democratic?

Their economies are heavily reliant on the oil sector

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

On paper, Democrats should actually be doing worse in Alaska long-term due to the oil and gas industry, as West Virginia trends Republican due to the collapse of the coal industry. Remember that even people who aren't directly employed by Big Oil are affected by it; like coal in West Virginia, it's a major revenue generator for the state - especially thanks to the APF.

This is one state though where Democrats should expect improvement in rural areas thanks to demographic trends, as with Anchorage and Fairbanks. But I agree that it will not be competitive in 2024. Democrats should hope that Murkowski wins next year somehow, because she really is the best we're going to get from that state right now.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_House_of_Representatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Senate

Pretty amazing how Republicans have a clear supermajority in the Senate while Democrats basically control the House with moderate Republicans as a coalition. We'll see how that changes next year.

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_House_of_Representatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Senate

Pretty amazing how Republicans have a clear supermajority in the Senate while Democrats basically control the House with moderate Republicans as a coalition. We'll see how that changes next year.

Alaska is a rare state where Democrats have a geographic advantage; Biden won 19 of 40 State House districts even while losing by ten points, while only 15 districts elected Democrats. There's clear room for growth in the legislature, but we'll see if midterm dynamics get in the way and/or the coalition independents and Republicans get tossed out for hard-liners.

[Mr. Smith]

Alaska is a less-pressing Trump state that the GOP needs to keep an eye on compared to Texas and North Carolina, but the warning signs are there. The GOP can’t afford for the Democrats to start winning Anchorage like the blowout margins Democrats win in other cities of a similar size in the continental US.

True, I just wonder why Anchorage and Fairbanks aren't more Democratic?

Their economies are heavily reliant on the oil sector

Decent military presence too...at least in Fairbanks.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Alaska turns blue, then we can get the 278 friewal back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Gross wins in 2022, which is a possibility, he is running against Kelly not Murkowski or Sullivan, then AK is in play but wave insurence seats we won't know about until next yr since they are mostly polling Cali recall, VA and NJ races