Which state will flip to the Democrats first?

[Ferguson97]

?

[TDAS04]

In 2024?  North Carolina, but if neither does then, Texas could flip first a little later.

[Person Man]

They are only 4 points apart right now and at this rate, Texas will be as Democratic as NC by 2028 but maybe North Carolina will be where Georgia is today by then. Who knows.

[sting in the rafters]

Texas is going to be harder than demographic trends may indicate, we're talking about a state that is still 40+% conservative. Usually it's very hard for a D to win a 40+% conservative state unless it's a landslide or they get overwhelming moderate support like in GA/AZ the past cycle.

While NC has been pretty inelastic the last few cycles the formula of over-performing with high northeastern rural black turnout plus the Research Triangle could close the gap.

[Skill and Chance]

Texas is going to be harder than demographic trends may indicate, we're talking about a state that is still 40+% conservative. Usually it's very hard for a D to win a 40+% conservative state unless it's a landslide or they get overwhelming moderate support like in GA/AZ the past cycle.

While NC has been pretty inelastic the last few cycles the formula of over-performing with high northeastern rural black turnout plus the Research Triangle could close the gap.

I've recently changed my mind on this after the 2020 Hispanic shift coupled with the stability of the black vote.  Like you, I favor NC now.  The McAllen flip has only reinforced this.  Medium-long run Dem prospects in the South are looking better than the Southwest. 

[Schiff for Senate]

North Carolina.

  The only scenario in which I envision North Carolina staying red but TX flipping is probably if the GOP nominee is from NC, or if the Democratic nominee's from Texas (for example, Beto O'Rourke). But I think North Carolina is far likelier to flip blue - even if Texas continues its leftward shift, I think it's likely for the time being that this shift isn't enough to actually flip Texas (especially given wild Hispanic voting trends in South Texas). On the other hand, I can envision several scenarios in which North Carolina could flip (because it voted for Trump in 2020 by a mere 1.34%, less than Texas, with a margin of over 5%) - such as 2024, if the Biden administration is popular enough (in fact, if any state will flip blue in 2024, it will most likely be NC), and especially if Roy Cooper is on the ballot (if Kamala is the Democratic nominee in 2024, she should really pick Cooper - a white man on the ticket to balance the presence of a woman of color, and someone popular in a swing state). In Texas, even if O'Rourke is somehow Harris' running mate, I don't think Texas would flip. This is because NC has always been a swing or Lean R state (at least since the 2000s) - and while its numerous urban areas are Democratic, its suburbs are, in a lot of cases, pretty solidly red, and there likely won't be a lot of Biden voters there who will revert back to the GOP in 2024 if Trump isn't on the ballot. Conversely, I imagine that a lot of gained votes for Democrats in Texas was because Trump was the nominee - if he isn't, I can easily imagine this trend actually reversing somewhat, or at least stopping, so if South TX continues this rightward shift (possible), then Texas could actually vote more Republican in 2024, whether or not O'Rourke runs. In North Carolina, all the Democrats need to do is gain a lot of votes in the suburbs (and they don't need to worry about bleeding support in a historically Democratic region of the state like Texas Democrats do, or a potential loss of votes in the already red-leaning suburbs), and NC might well be the next flip - especially if Roy Cooper (a popular statewide figure who won reelection in 2020 by 4.5% even as Biden lost the state by 1.34%) is on the ballot.