FL-Gov: Who's a stronger GE candidate?

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm not so sure, tbh, but lean towards saying Crist is a stronger GE candidate. That said, I don't expect either to win.

[S019]

All of the signs point towards Crist, Fried's Resist Twitter-style campaigning is not a good idea

[Senator-elect Spark]

Crist unfortunately.

[Donerail]

Crist is the greatest retail politician this state has ever known. Not sure how much that counts for these days, but if you have to roll the dice, he's probably more able to make something happen.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fried. Crist is easy to paint as a career politician

[Roll Roons]

Say what you want about Crist, but he is a very well-known figure in the state. Fried's whole campaign just seems to be a "Florida Man Bad" resistance grift.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has the same exact Approvals as he did on Election day, D's aren't winning FL in a 304 map

[Biden his time]

Charlie Crist and it isn't close the way Fried's behaving

This is how I expect the primary to go:



Even if you disagree with my characterization of Fried and Crist as grifters (they might not be grifters but they straddle the line) you gotta admit that Fried will get Fried by DeSantis hard.

Fried makes a compelling argument to support her though, in the fact that she's a very good sacrificial candidate. Crist serves a function currently in holding the Pinellas district so he could be useful there. Fried has no use at all other than channeling money from the New Jersey suburban wine moms into a failed campaign. Sooner she's gone the better (and 2022 might just be the time to do it!). God forbid she's the challenger in an actually winnable race such as the 2024 Senate election.

On the other hand, there are arguments to support Crist as well. He will not be as much of a downballot disaster and more downballot politicians means a bigger bench for Florida Democrats in the future.

[SnowLabrador]

Fried. Crist has already lost three statewide races. Plus, the fact that Fried won when Bill Nelson lost surely counts for something.

[Donerail]

Fried. Crist has already lost three statewide races. Plus, the fact that Fried won when Bill Nelson lost surely counts for something.

Are you counting... the 1998 Senate race? Hardly relevant to today. As for the other two, in one he outpolled the Democratic nominee as an independent, and in the other he lost by a point in a very Republican year. Not sure either demonstrates a glaring weakness.

[Biden his time]

Plus, the fact that Fried won when Bill Nelson lost surely counts for something.

I don't really think it does.

He didn't campaign allowing Gillum to become the face of the Florida Democratic Party.
His opponent was very strong and had far more name recognition.
Fried's opponent though was not very strong, well-known, or memorable.

Fried's win was a fluke.

She in fact was weaker than Gillum (the socialist who should've done worse than her among Venezuelans, Cubans etc.) in Hispanic and Black precincts and municipalities (Pembroke Pines, Miramar for example) even in her own county. She only outperformed in heavily rich white areas of the Gold Coast. The issue is that Fried will have to win some of these Hispanics and Blacks (and they shifted heavy Republican from 2016 -> 2020) back in order to win the state as a whole. They are essential to a Democratic victory. On the other hand the places Fried overperformed in 2018 were some of the few places which swung Biden in a Florida red wave year such as 2020.

Crist has shown immense strength among Blacks and Hispanics in the past on the other hand.

[Real Texan Politics]

Fried's only appeal is to establishment #resist libs in Broward County and out of state. That's it.

Crist is more boring, but he has broader appeal throughout Florida.

DeSantis will win re-election, but he'd do so by less against Crist than against Fried.

[President Johnson]

I heavily tend towards Crist. I think he has broader appeal than Fried. The question is whether Fried could compensate that with turnout among Democrats and liberals. However, latter is probably not enough flip the state.

[brucejoel99]

Say what you want about Fried's "resistance" style, but her winning in 2018 wasn't really all that much of a fluke, unless DeSantis' & Scott's wins were flukes too: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming & she really stood out in a way that you just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commish. She also had an organizing field staff independent of the chronically incompetent FDP - although they obviously worked together when necessary - & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have recently been falling short here. I think that she's ultimately good enough at message-discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that she manages to edge Crist out for the title of "stronger GE candidate," even though - of course - nobody's beating DeSantis next year in any event.

[THG]

Fried is the Democratic equivalent of Kelly Ward running for statewide office.

Crist is the Floridian equivalent of Martha McSally running for office, except that he has switched parties multiple times and thus is a spectacular flip flopper, akin to a pancake.

Both are abysmal candidates, but better to lose safe (Crist) than to lose sorry (Fried).

[Senator-elect Spark]

Fried's only appeal is to establishment #resist libs in Broward County and out of state. That's it.

Crist is more boring, but he has broader appeal throughout Florida.

DeSantis will win re-election, but he'd do so by less against Crist than against Fried.

[Utah Neolib]

Crist is the greatest retail politician this state has ever known. Not sure how much that counts for these days, but if you have to roll the dice, he's probably more able to make something happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is gonna win on this Environment look at the polls he along with Rubio are up 60/40%

[Meatball Ron]

I agree with most of the previous posts on here but, my god, they are both so weak.

If FL Dems were really playing to win this cycle, the two statewide candidates should have been some subset of DMP, Stephanie Murphy, and Demings - all three of those would (and in Demings' case, will) be way stronger than Crist and Fried.

What's interesting is that I assume Fried had to have been a somewhat strong candidate / campaigner to win in '18 given no other statewide Dems did (maybe I am missing something, like a flaw with her opponent?) She should be trying to just replicate that message / strategy rather than this bizarre extremely online resister style campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree with most of the previous posts on here but, my god, they are both so weak.

If FL Dems were really playing to win this cycle, the two statewide candidates should have been some subset of DMP, Stephanie Murphy, and Demings - all three of those would (and in Demings' case, will) be way stronger than Crist and Fried.

What's interesting is that I assume Fried had to have been a somewhat strong candidate / campaigner to win in '18 given no other statewide Dems did (maybe I am missing something, like a flaw with her opponent?) She should be trying to just replicate that message / strategy rather than this bizarre extremely online resister style campaign.

Demings is loosing to Rubio too 60/40, as long as DeSantis is on the ballot with Rubio, they are safe bets to win Reelection, remember DeSantis almost lost in 2018 because he was running with Rick Scott not Rubio, 55/45 wins for Rubio and DeSantis

[Donerail]

What's interesting is that I assume Fried had to have been a somewhat strong candidate / campaigner to win in '18 given no other statewide Dems did (maybe I am missing something, like a flaw with her opponent?) She should be trying to just replicate that message / strategy rather than this bizarre extremely online resister style campaign.

The Fried strategy in 2018 was fairly simple: ride the coattails of two strong Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket to 49.5%, and distinguish yourself enough on one issue to get a handful of crossover votes to get you over 50%. Not a bad strategy to win downballot, but not exactly something you can replicate when, uh oh, it's you who's now at the top of the ticket.

[GregTheGreat657]

Fried is the Democratic equivalent of Kelly Ward running for statewide office.

Crist is the Floridian equivalent of Martha McSally running for office, except that he has switched parties multiple times and thus is a spectacular flip flopper, akin to a pancake.

Both are abysmal candidates, but better to lose safe (Crist) than to lose sorry (Fried).

If Crist wins the nomination, I can already see a line from the debates.

DeSantis: You offer flip flops, I offer (property) tax breaks.

[Meatball Ron]

Fried is the Democratic equivalent of Kelly Ward running for statewide office.

Crist is the Floridian equivalent of Martha McSally running for office, except that he has switched parties multiple times and thus is a spectacular flip flopper, akin to a pancake.

Both are abysmal candidates, but better to lose safe (Crist) than to lose sorry (Fried).

If Crist wins the nomination, I can already see a line from the debates.

DeSantis: You offer flip flops, I offer (property) tax breaks.

Lol - great line from an old JibJab video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Q-sRdV7SY&ab_channel=JibJab

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't think anyone would be "stronger" against DeSantis next year. You might as well ask if Youngkin or Gillespie would stand a better chance of beating TMac this year (Even though Virginia is much more of a partisan state than Florida yet their governors race is seen as more competitive. Funny how that works out)

I guess Crist iin that he'll only lose by 5 instead of 6.

[Suburbia]

Fried.

Neither will win unless DeSantis becomes seriously unpopular.