Did Biden win because of old people dying/young people coming of voting age
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  Did Biden win because of old people dying/young people coming of voting age
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Author Topic: Did Biden win because of old people dying/young people coming of voting age  (Read 334 times)
Motorcity
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« on: June 17, 2021, 11:16:12 PM »

Hillary lost WI/MI/PA by 1%.

I heard some people say that with such close margins, four years of old people dying and people born 1999-2002 turning 18 would flip it alone.

When everything was said and done, did Biden win by virtue of a slightly different electorate from four years ago?
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Annatar
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2021, 11:49:38 PM »

Yes, assuming static turnout from 2016, the entry of new voters would have been equivalent to around 6.5% of existing voters, obviously these new voters have lower turnout so they would have comprised more like 5% of actual voters, assuming Biden won them by 25% which is the margin many exit polls have him winning voters in their 20's by, that would be a 1.25% shift, obviously the shift would be less in some states and greater in others, but certainly greater than the 0.7% margin in WI. The death of older voters who narrowly voted Trump also would shift the margin a bit further.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2021, 12:12:06 AM »

It was definitely a factor. And by 2024, even more seniors will die and more young people will turn 18.
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Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2021, 12:15:03 AM »

I think Biden also did the best a dem as done with Seniors than any dem since 2000
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2021, 12:07:12 PM »

I think Biden also did the best a dem as done with Seniors than any dem since 2000

True.  The problem with this reasoning is that Biden did the best in 20 years with very old people and the worst in at least 12 years, possibly 20 years with very young people.  It was the least age-polarized election in a long time.
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