Predict Trump's margin of victory in Florida (general election)
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  Predict Trump's margin of victory in Florida (general election)
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Author Topic: Predict Trump's margin of victory in Florida (general election)  (Read 809 times)
SnowLabrador
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« on: June 16, 2021, 05:35:52 PM »

My guess? Six points.
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2021, 05:46:10 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2021, 05:59:29 PM by UNBEATABLE TITAN WAYNE MESSAM »

Biden vs. Trump: R+1.5
Harris vs. Trump: R+2.5
Biden vs. DeSantis: R+3
Harris vs. DeSantis: R+4

seem the most likely to me



Still waiting for info in 2022 to see how much of Miami-Dade's swing is permanent, the above predictions all assume that it swings by 5% or so towards the Democratic party.

It could be more or less.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2021, 07:50:45 PM »

Trump+3

He wins it fairly comfortably, but by less so than 2020
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2021, 07:55:59 PM »

There is no way that Biden can do worse in Miami-Dade than in 2020, but he still might lose by at least 2.5 points against any Republican.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2021, 08:27:37 PM »

DeSamtis can in fact lose FL, and Trump might even win FL when he tries to run.

The state has a Supermajority R Delegation, which will serve as a check on Charlie Crist and he didn't raise income taxes but sales taxes or property taxes are on the table
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2021, 08:35:45 PM »

Trump+2
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2021, 08:58:24 PM »

-2 (Biden wins)
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2021, 09:57:17 PM »

R+6
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Chips
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2021, 10:44:19 PM »

R+2
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2021, 04:32:36 AM »


Charlie Crist can be the next Gov of FL, Scott had a better standing with Afro Americans than DeSantis

Rick Scott wasn't a Trump supporter when he ran for Reelection, DeSantis is, which turns off Afro Americans, themats why he only won by .5 in 2018 over Gillium
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2021, 08:13:21 PM »

52-47
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E-Dawg 🇺🇦🇦🇲
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« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2021, 06:36:36 PM »

Miami Dade is such an unpredictable wildcard that I have no clue. We need to see how Rubio and DeSantis do there in 2022 to have any clue what the county's political trajectory is. I stand by the previous post I made that's quoted below about whether Trump could have done better in Miami Dade or not.

Hard to say based on current information. We won't know the answer to this until we see whether the GOP can continue building on its gains there. If the GOP does gain to the point where they win the county in an upcoming election, then it probably was a realistic possibility if Trump ran a better campaign. However, if the county swings back to the Dems and Trump's performance proves to be an outlier, then he probably did the best he could have done. Either scenario is possible. We'll see how DeSantis and Rubio do here in 2022.

I am still amazed to see people speculate on this county with such certainty. People keep saying things like "This county will FOR SURE swing back Dem! Trump did the best any Republican can do and the Cuban vote is maxed out!" after this county just delivered an unbelievable result literally nobody saw coming in 2020! People who predicted Trump getting 46% would have been called insane trolls! There is no reason to be sure that the county will not become more GOP. I would agree that the county is unlikely to flip, but its certainly a possibly since that would only require a 7 point swing, which is nothing compared to the 22 point swing from 2016-2020.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2021, 02:49:08 PM »

Miami Dade is such an unpredictable wildcard that I have no clue. We need to see how Rubio and DeSantis do there in 2022 to have any clue what the county's political trajectory is. I stand by the previous post I made that's quoted below about whether Trump could have done better in Miami Dade or not.

Hard to say based on current information. We won't know the answer to this until we see whether the GOP can continue building on its gains there. If the GOP does gain to the point where they win the county in an upcoming election, then it probably was a realistic possibility if Trump ran a better campaign. However, if the county swings back to the Dems and Trump's performance proves to be an outlier, then he probably did the best he could have done. Either scenario is possible. We'll see how DeSantis and Rubio do here in 2022.

I am still amazed to see people speculate on this county with such certainty. People keep saying things like "This county will FOR SURE swing back Dem! Trump did the best any Republican can do and the Cuban vote is maxed out!" after this county just delivered an unbelievable result literally nobody saw coming in 2020! People who predicted Trump getting 46% would have been called insane trolls! There is no reason to be sure that the county will not become more GOP. I would agree that the county is unlikely to flip, but its certainly a possibly since that would only require a 7 point swing, which is nothing compared to the 22 point swing from 2016-2020.

Dade is unique and weird enough that it could go R+10 in 2024 in the same election Biden wins GA, NC, WI, MI, PA ,AZ, NV and TX from additional suburban gains. Its mix of Cubans/South Americans is just completely different than Mexicans in TX/AZ/NV and no other county in the country is like it.

By this logic it could also go D+22
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2021, 05:57:33 PM »

Trump's not running.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2021, 06:10:50 PM »


They said the same in 2016.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2021, 06:22:39 PM »

Biden vs. Trump: R+1.5
Harris vs. Trump: R+2.5
Biden vs. DeSantis: R+3
Harris vs. DeSantis: R+4

seem the most likely to me



Still waiting for info in 2022 to see how much of Miami-Dade's swing is permanent, the above predictions all assume that it swings by 5% or so towards the Democratic party.

It could be more or less.

This seems right.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2021, 09:06:40 PM »
« Edited: June 19, 2021, 09:13:00 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Biden vs. Trump: R+1.5
Harris vs. Trump: R+2.5
Biden vs. DeSantis: R+3
Harris vs. DeSantis: R+4

seem the most likely to me



Still waiting for info in 2022 to see how much of Miami-Dade's swing is permanent, the above predictions all assume that it swings by 5% or so towards the Democratic party.

It could be more or less.

This seems right.

I hope Charlie Crist beats your DeSantis in a Chamber of Commerce poll he is up by 10 in reality he is only up by 5 and Crist hasn't run any ads yet scrutinzing DeSantis and he will, states don't always vote the same way in off yrs elections and Crist lost to Rick Scott, Scott had more of a favorable view among Afro Americans, and DeSantis almost lost to Gillium and Crist will solidify the Black vote again

I would gladly trade MI and OR for FL and OH since Whitmer is loosing to Craig and Jessica Gomez is a mainstream R in OR


Crist winning along with an Supermajority R state Legislature will allow us to hold down R gains in the H to 5 loss seats between TX and FL after we run the score up in Cali, IL, NY to 15, This holding the H by 10 votes
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