If Trump had conceded, do Republicans win the Georgia runoffs?
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  If Trump had conceded, do Republicans win the Georgia runoffs?
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Author Topic: If Trump had conceded, do Republicans win the Georgia runoffs?  (Read 1104 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« on: June 15, 2021, 06:12:37 PM »

I think Perdue would have won by 6, and Loeffler would have won by 5.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2021, 06:49:53 PM »

Not by that much, but these were races that Republicans should have won. Trump screwed their turnout, and I expect he swung a few Biden voters to Ossoff and Warnock (attacking people's votes should do that but I haven't seen it confirmed yet).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2021, 07:15:39 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2021, 07:22:42 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Trump never was gonna concede, he said that it's unpatriotic to concede an Election, but we nominated Biden whom had the Hunter Biden probe instead of Bernie like we did in 2016, and Biden like Hillary didn't win the wave insurance seats

I said on this forum it was a mistake to nominate Biden, he only got a bump from Floyd protests, he was up by 14 pts and it disappeared

Remember Bullock got into the race in MT purely based on Biden and if Bernie won he said he was out.yes, of course it would of helped but McConnell blocked 2,K cheques and it wasn't that much money it lasted 2 mnths, you can't get rich, there was a calling for UBI benefits, that way R Govs could not cut off Unemployment cheques and it should of been indexed not 300 for everyone, according to your based salary

Now, with R Govs cancelling Unemployment, they are winning Southern Races
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2021, 07:34:56 PM »

Yes. You gotta remember how close both races were.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2021, 07:35:11 PM »

yea I would say so. Atleast Purdue would win by 5pts and Loeffler would narrowly win but that didnt happen
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2021, 07:35:29 PM »

Yes. But a more likely way for the GOP to win the runoffs was McConnell allowing Trump's $2000 checks to pass.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2021, 07:37:14 PM »

Interesting question. I think they would have (possibly both but definitely at least one), given that the Democrats won both races narrowly enough, and that Georgia was one of the states whose results Trump questioned. Voters probably don't like having their votes threatened/invalidated or even questioned, so he probably put some GOP voters into the Democratic column and sent most undecides there as well. A split result would be possible as well, given that they still did win both elections by over a point and that the key catalyst was likely that Senate control hinged on the two election results. Almost certainly at least one seat might stay red, probably the regular election (David Perdue), given the results there were a lot closer. Both races going red might not be too likely, since Warnock won by over 2%, but I think at least one would stay in the GOP column.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2021, 08:08:20 PM »

No, if anything Democrats would've won by more. Trump gave nutjob Republicans hope by refusing to concede. If he admits he lost, they become sad and don't vote.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2021, 09:05:08 PM »

I think this would result in a Perdue+1/Warnock+1 split decision.  Georgia is the most inelastic place ever, but I think Republicans can get an extra 1-2% from not having this controversy hanging out there.
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2021, 09:19:35 PM »

No, if anything Democrats would've won by more. Trump gave nutjob Republicans hope by refusing to concede. If he admits he lost, they become sad and don't vote.

I don't disagree Democrats could win, but the bolded part is false. Him saying that the election was rigged likely depressed turnout among Republicans, and this probably was enough to cost Perdue, but Loeffler may have been doomed either way.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2021, 09:22:14 PM »

I don't think so. Considering how polarized the Senate map was last year it seems unlikely that a split from the presidential race would have occurred.
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2021, 09:30:34 PM »

I don't think so. Considering how polarized the Senate map was last year it seems unlikely that a split from the presidential race would have occurred.

Ossoff and Warnock overperformed Biden by a lot more than Republicans would have needed to overperform Trump to win. Indeed, Republicans likely would have won both Senate seats if the November elections had decided the outcome. Even on a uniform swing, if Warnock only won by as much as Biden (0.2%) then Ossoff would have only gotten 49.7% of the vote and so Republicans would have retained the Senate. Though it was still a pretty small gap between the races so most likely Loeffler would win if Perdue wins.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2021, 10:20:02 PM »

Maybe they win, maybe they still narrowly lose. But anyone predicting this would cause 5-6 pt wins for Perdue are flat out wrong. This was a still a state Biden won.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2021, 10:29:08 PM »

When there is a Gore type of situation, the Rs lost their credibility due to Trump, it's all gonna play out in 2022/Rs don't have it in the bag yet
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TML
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2021, 10:55:25 PM »

Another thing to remember about these “double-barrel” Senate races: the last time two parties split a pair of such races was 1966 in South Carolina. In this case, given how the two candidates of both parties often campaigned together as tag-teams, I still think it would have been highly likely that the same party wins both races.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2021, 10:56:46 PM »

At least one of them, probably. His spending the 2 months between Nov. 7th & Jan. 5th actively delegitimizing elections in general - & GA's elections in particular - & saying that his voters' votes didn't matter since it was rigged against them was death-from-a-thousand-cuts for Perdue & Loeffler. Without all of that, enough of his voters probably still come to turn-out.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2021, 07:50:53 AM »

Yes.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2021, 10:23:11 AM »

Another thing to remember about these “double-barrel” Senate races: the last time two parties split a pair of such races was 1966 in South Carolina. In this case, given how the two candidates of both parties often campaigned together as tag-teams, I still think it would have been highly likely that the same party wins both races.

One of the two in that double-barrel was of course Thurmond, who had a very strong personal brand that overrode the still-nascent realignment of the state at that time. I think that a split result in the Georgia runoffs would've been more likely than in many double-barrel races due to the clear differences in coalitions between the two (especially Perdue's overperformance in GA-06), but it was still always unlikely that there would be a split.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2021, 02:21:19 PM »

No, because Republican voters would have felt that the battle is lost anyway. I think this can be true at the same time than Trump claiming the presidential election was stolen and as a result de facto saying it's not worth it to cast a ballot.
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AGA
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2021, 07:24:53 PM »

Not really sure. Maybe Perdue would have won, but I doubt Loeffler would have. Two points isn't that close.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2021, 12:06:49 AM »

I mean Republicans won Georgia Senate runoffs in 1992 and 2008 after Democrats won the White House. It seems like runoffs usually go against the party that did well nationally in the November election because the losing party is more motivated to turn out. But as we all know, Trump threw a wrench in that...
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2021, 12:38:56 AM »

I mean Republicans won Georgia Senate runoffs in 1992 and 2008 after Democrats won the White House. It seems like runoffs usually go against the party that did well nationally in the November election because the losing party is more motivated to turn out. But as we all know, Trump threw a wrench in that...

The difference here can be attributed to changing party coalitions more so than Trump's presence. The fact is that the GOP was nowhere near as reliant on supercharging rural turnout/receiving sky-high margins out of rural/small-town GA in those elections given their strength in areas containing the highest concentration of the type of voter most likely to turn out in a runoff election:



(Paul Coverdell's victory map in the 1992 runoff election)

2008 was even more lopsided — while Democrats had bled considerable support in ancestrally Democratic (esp. in the Coastal Plains) or only modestly Republican-leaning areas (in the North), the GOP had retained or broadened its support in ruby-red Atlanta suburbia/exurbia. These elections were held during a time when college-educated white voters were not notably less Republican than non-college-educated voters and do not serve as particularly pertinent points of comparison.
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beesley
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2021, 04:14:39 AM »

As unlikely as a split would be, this is probably the best chance for it realistically.
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2021, 04:28:31 AM »

Yes, if he said he accepted the results and that Georgia needed to stop Biden from having the trifecta.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2021, 09:17:03 AM »

yep.
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