After Brnovich v. DNC: Will SCOTUS eventually declare Section 2 unconstitutional?

[I’m not Stu]

Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Remember that Brnovich will do far more damage than Kemp did.

[lfromnj]

Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Oh no, he doesn't want ballot harvesting .

[I’m not Stu]

Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Oh no, he doesn't want ballot harvesting .

You know that isn’t what I’m referring to. What I mean is that Brnovich wants SCOTUS to go farther and kill the VRA.

[SnowLabrador]

Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Oh no, he doesn't want ballot harvesting .

You know that isn’t what I’m referring to. What I mean is that Brnovich wants SCOTUS to go farther and kill the VRA.

They will. This is a coup.

[I’m not Stu]

Remember, Brnovich is running for Senate in Arizona. He's rigging his own election, much like Kemp did in 2018.

Oh no, he doesn't want ballot harvesting .

You know that isn’t what I’m referring to. What I mean is that Brnovich wants SCOTUS to go farther and kill the VRA.

They will. This is a coup.

Do you think it will be a 5-1-3 decision with Alito's majority opinion being assigned by Thomas, with Roberts only partially agreeing with the judgment?

[Torie]

You guys really think SCOTUS is going to kill off the Gingles trigger mechanism, and the ensuing requirement when triggered, of the requirement to have performing minority CD's when triggered?  Thar seems pretty wild to me, given the case is not about that, and the opinion wandering that far afield would be mere dictum. But I admit not to have studied the case on a granular level, much less read the briefs, or listened to oral argument.

[brucejoel99]

[I’m not Stu]

You guys really think SCOTUS is going to kill off the Gingles trigger mechanism, and the ensuing requirement when triggered, of the requirement to have performing minority CD's when triggered?  Thar seems pretty wild to me, given the case is not about that, and the opinion wandering that far afield would be mere dictum. But I admit not to have studied the case on a granular level, much less read the briefs, or listened to oral argument.

Yes. That's what this means.
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1409885797084499972

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

[I’m not Stu]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

[I’m not Stu]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

Democrats would lose too many seats in FL, TX, and GA. Louisville, KY gets cracked. MO gets 8R-0D, TN gets 9R-0D. I doubt 52D-0R in CA, 26D-0R in NY, and 17D-0R in IL can overcome that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

Democrats would lose too many seats in FL, TX, and GA. Louisville, KY gets cracked. MO gets 8R-0D, TN gets 9R-0D. I doubt 52D-0R in CA, 26D-0R in NY, and 17D-0R in IL can overcome that.

St. Louis is too risky to crack, because the districts required to do so would end up being swingy. They'll gut the KC district, but 7-1 is much more likely. As with TN, Cohen will likely stay while Cooper is cut. FL and TX are already Gerrymandered to the extreme, so only 2 or 3 will cut in those states. The thing is, there isn't that much will in these states to do that.

[I’m not Stu]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

Democrats would lose too many seats in FL, TX, and GA. Louisville, KY gets cracked. MO gets 8R-0D, TN gets 9R-0D. I doubt 52D-0R in CA, 26D-0R in NY, and 17D-0R in IL can overcome that.

St. Louis is too risky to crack, because the districts required to do so would end up being swingy. They'll gut the KC district, but 7-1 is much more likely. As with TN, Cohen will likely stay while Cooper is cut. FL and TX are already Gerrymandered to the extreme, so only 2 or 3 will cut in those states. The thing is, there isn't that much will in these states to do that.

No. My 8R-0D map isn't risky at all. Not one House district voted for Jason Kander in 2016 on my map.

8R-0D map 2016 presidential election results.


8R-0D map 2016 US Senate election results. Every district voted for Roy Blunt.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Even if Democrats could gerrymander far more seats, the loss of VRA districts in GOP states would be too much for even aggressive Democratic gerrymandering to overcome.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh no, Dems lose AL, MS, SC... The Democrats can get rid of 8 Republican seats in NY. One or two in IL, One in OR, and the "nonpartisan" commission in CA will certainly nuke a few of their own.

Democrats would lose too many seats in FL, TX, and GA. Louisville, KY gets cracked. MO gets 8R-0D, TN gets 9R-0D. I doubt 52D-0R in CA, 26D-0R in NY, and 17D-0R in IL can overcome that.

St. Louis is too risky to crack, because the districts required to do so would end up being swingy. They'll gut the KC district, but 7-1 is much more likely. As with TN, Cohen will likely stay while Cooper is cut. FL and TX are already Gerrymandered to the extreme, so only 2 or 3 will cut in those states. The thing is, there isn't that much will in these states to do that.

No. My 8R-0D map isn't risky at all. Not one House district voted for Jason Kander in 2016 on my map.

8R-0D map 2016 presidential election results.


8R-0D map 2016 US Senate election results. Every district voted for Roy Blunt.

If Missouri Republicans want to give Dems a very good chance of passing a commission using the "efficiency gap" to help draw districts, a map like this is a very good way of doing that.

[I’m not Stu]

If Alito writes it, who assigned it to him?

[NYDem]

As somebody who hasn’t been following this case: Is there any chance that the VRA districts actually get struck down, or is it just dooming about something not relevant to the case?

[I’m not Stu]

As somebody who hasn’t been following this case: Is there any chance that the VRA districts actually get struck down, or is it just dooming about something not relevant to the case?

Yes. It is possible. If Arizona’s bans on out of precinct voting and ballot harvesting are upheld in a narrower decision, redistricting won’t be affected. If a broad decision is made to kill the VRA, it will affect redistricting.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Well you have to weigh the political considerations. The 8-0 map will drive Dem turnout and give them something to point at proving the point of 'anti-democracy republicans'. The fallout from letting Cori Bush have her small district is much smaller.

[SteveRogers]

As somebody who hasn’t been following this case: Is there any chance that the VRA districts actually get struck down, or is it just dooming about something not relevant to the case?

It’s just dooming about something not relevant to the case. This is a case about what standard courts are to apply to voter denial claims under Section 2 of the VRA. Voter dilution claims (I.e. redistricting) are a separate question with its own distinct body of case law where the Court has grappled with standards and tests, etc. I take it that ERM64man thinks that the Court will use this opportunity to strike down all of Section 2 as unconstitutional or something, and he doesn’t seem interested in hearing why that’s not how this works.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does ERM also know that in this worst-case scenario that Democrats can also go nuts with gerrymandering? I can see them getting rid of every single Republican in NY.

Well, there was this.

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/964289867818684417

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

As somebody who hasn’t been following this case: Is there any chance that the VRA districts actually get struck down, or is it just dooming about something not relevant to the case?

It’s just dooming about something not relevant to the case. This is a case about what standard courts are to apply to voter denial claims under Section 2 of the VRA. Voter dilution claims (I.e. redistricting) are a separate question with its own distinct body of case law where the Court has grappled with standards and tests, etc. I take it that ERM64man thinks that the Court will use this opportunity to strike down all of Section 2 as unconstitutional or something, and he doesn’t seem interested in hearing why that’s not how this works.

I take it ERM is not a lawyer. The court will not strike something down just because it can. Most supreme court justices oppose Obamacare. Yet it stood in a 7-2 decision.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

To be fair to ERM, he does have some Twitter bluecheck who writes for Slate dooming along with him, for what that's worth.

[Intell]

Kavanaugh will write the opinion most likely, which fulfils Robert's desire which will be relatively narrow. Alito will definitely write a much more extreme concurrence joined by Thomas and maybe others like Gorsuch and Barett.

[brucejoel99]

Kavanaugh will write the opinion most likely, which fulfils Robert's desire which will be relatively narrow. Alito will definitely write a much more extreme concurrence joined by Thomas and maybe others like Gorsuch and Barett.

I wouldn't be so sure about ACB there, as it didn't seem like she was entirely convinced by the Petitioners' oral arguments.