Is DeSantis the new Hawley?

[Ferguson97]

Is the sudden hype over DeSantis just a redux of the 2019-2020 hype over Josh Hawley? Lots of Democrats suddenly scared that a 2018 election newcomer will somehow be able to keep together the Trump coalition or possibly expand it due to being 'populist'? People sort of abandoned Hawley after 1/6 but what makes DeSantis different? The only argument I could see is that he's from a swing state but we seem to have conceded Florida for the foreseeable future anyway.

So is DeSantis just the new flavor of the month (like Rubio in 2016, Christie in 2012), or is something different?

[Utah Neolib]

I think so. A better comparison would be Scott Walker.
Swing state governor super conservative Republican who would possibly perform poorly on debates

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis has always been more hyped than Hawley particularly since all wings of the GOP like him. Both Jeb Bush and Trump are supported of DeSantis meaning he stands the best shot of being able to find a candidate who can appeal in WWC area and affluent suburban areas at the same time

[Mr. Morden]

The discussion of Hawley was mostly just media talk.  He never made a dent in national polling.  DeSantis is actually leading in most 2024 GOP presidential primary poll questions in which a Trump is not listed as an option, and the “hype” about him largely flows from that fact.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

He’s a Scott walker/Beto O’rourke. Both performed well due to hype despite little name recognition prior to hype.

[President Johnson]

I think so. A better comparison would be Scott Walker.
Swing state governor super conservative Republican who would possibly perform poorly on debates

The Scott Walker parallel might be valid, though I think DeSantis would do better in debates. However, that still doesn't guarantee him to advance as frontrunner in the second half of 2023. Kamala also had a surge after the first Democratic debate in 2019 and still ended her campaign before New Year's Eve.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Ron DeSantis-Scott Walker comparisons are incredibly lazy. If anything Walker-Hawley made more sense as both convey being tough until you see them and they are actually not very imposing figures. DeSantis may as well be a scandal-free Chris Christie. There is little reason to fear him being timid and dull in primetime. That's a role more easily filled by Mike Pence (though Pence is nowhere near Scott Walker levels).

[Mr. Morden]

all the talk of him reminds me of 2005-2006 when people were going about Warner, Bayh and Allen.

None of them ever led in any national (or IA/NH) polls.  Pundits talked about them because they were *predicting* that once voters got to know them, they'd catch on.  But it was based on pundits' gut feelings of what would sell with voters, rather than any actual data.

In DeSantis's case, he's already succeeding with GOP primary voters enough to be leading in most polls that don't include an option for someone in the Trump family.  And that is why pundits talk about him, not because of their own judgment of what kind of candidate will play well.

Now, even if Trump doesn't run, DeSantis could still easily blow it, because polls taken this early aren't that predictive.  He could be like a Rick Perry, who was leading the competition in GOP primary polls for a while in 2011 before he blew it.  But again, the difference between something like a Perry '12 campaign and a Pawlenty '12 campaign is that the former was actually winning the invisible primary, at least briefly, whereas the latter never was, but pundits were simply predicting that he might in the future (a future that never arrived).  DeSantis is more in that Perry '12 category.

[EJ24]

No.

He's weaker than Hawley. And he will flame out faster.

[Benjamin Frank]

DeathSantis is the latest Elite educated elitist Republican to play dumb for the idiot base of Republican voters, so it's not a surprise that he'd get a lot of attention.  Where his stupidity, cynicism and sleaziness takes him is uncertain.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In fairness to DeSantis, he wasn't actively involved in cajoling a hoard of terrorists into descending onto the Capitol and then voting to back up what inspired their fervor...yet. I'm sure if he was still int he House he would have objected to the Arizona and Pennsylvania results.

As for him as a candidate, I see him being a complete dud like Rubio or Walker when he finally starts getting scrutinized.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is loosing to Biden by double digits

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hawley is still IMO a 2024 contender and he is severely underrated on this forum.

[Ferguson97]

DeSantis may as well be a scandal-free Chris Christie.

Scandal-free?

[Roll Roons]

DeSantis may as well be a scandal-free Chris Christie.

Scandal-free?

What are his scandals? The Publix thing was a completely false hitjob and Rebekah Jones has as much credibility as Tara Reade.

[TrumpBritt24]

He’s a Scott walker/Beto O’rourke. Both performed well due to hype despite little name recognition prior to hype.

I really like the Scott Walker comparison. I went into detail about it somewhere else on the forum before, but, the DeSantis '24 hype mirrors the Walker '16 (2013-2015) discussion soooo much.

[Skill and Chance]

No, he's more than that, but I do think he's peaking too soon and something will eventually sink him.  Chris Christie 2016 is the best comparison IMO.

[Chips]

I've been saying that the reason why the GOP loves DeSantis is because he's probably the nominee that provides them with their best chance of winning in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can we wait until after he has to stand Reelection before we assume this, he might lose

He is double digits down to BIDEN

[Benjamin Frank]

DeSantis may as well be a scandal-free Chris Christie.

Scandal-free?

What are his scandals? The Publix thing was a completely false hitjob and Rebekah Jones has as much credibility as Tara Reade.

Rebekah Jones has little credibility but there has been no debunking of her claims.  The National Review 'played the man and not the ball.'

It would be more accurate to say the National Review article was a hit job.

It's already been acknowledged that DeathSantis lowered the Covid death count by only including full time Florida residents.

"And the state health department is counting coronavirus deaths only for people who claimed residency in Florida. The medical examiners, who are legally responsible for certifying fatalities from diseases that constitute a threat to public health, are counting anyone who died in Florida, including snowbirds and visitors.

Public health experts told the Times that the state should tally all deaths that occur in Florida, which has hundreds of thousands of seasonal residents. From there, the state could break out additional statistics for its residents."
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/11/floridas-count-of-coronavirus-deaths-is-missing-some-cases/

Also:
Florida no longer tracking COVID-19 nursing home data
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2021/06/15/ltc-covid-data

So, there is, in fact, credible evidence that Rebekah Jones was telling the truth, even if she herself is not credible.