Predictions as of June 2021

[Ferguson97]

2021: New Jersey and Virginia HOLD Democrat
2022: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Kansas FLIP Republican; Maryland FLIPS Democrat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning WI, if you are a Dem why made an R map, I would never give Rs that map

[S019]

Rs aren't winning WI, if you are a Dem why made an R map, I would never give Rs that map

It's a prediction, not an "I want this to happen map"


Anyways, mine:

Incumbents assumed to run, unless they said they haven't:



Retirements would only change VT and MA, though

and with tossups:



Ohio moves to Likely, if DeWine loses a primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[😥]

Assuming all incumbents are running and assuming DeWine losing primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't losing WI and Abrams haven't even announced yet

[LabourJersey]

GOP gains:

Wisconsin
Kansas
Nevada

DEM gains:
Maryland
Georgia

PA is at a knife's edge but for now I think the Democrats will win that. And if Baker retires than MA is then favored for the Democrats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP gains:

Wisconsin
Kansas
Nevada

DEM gains:
Maryland
Georgia

PA is at a knife's edge but for now I think the Democrats will win that. And if Baker retires than MA is then favored for the Democrats

Where do you get this WI gain for Rs, Evers and Nelson was leading 48/44

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R: ID, WY, NE, OK, AR, TN, AL, SC, VT (assuming Scott runs for reelection — Likely D if he doesn’t)
Likely R: SD, TX, IA, FL, MA (assuming Baker runs for reelection — Lean D if he doesn’t)
Lean R: AK, AZ, KS
Toss-up/Tilt R: NV, WI, MI, NH (assuming Sununu runs for Senate — Safe R if he doesn’t)
Toss-up/Tilt D: GA, PA
Lean D: ME
Likely D: MD, NM, MN, CT, RI
Safe D: CA, OR, CO, IL, NY

So R+2, with four R gains in NV/WI/MI/KS and two D gains in GA/MD.

[Mr.Phips]

Safe R: ID, WY, NE, OK, AR, TN, AL, SC, VT (assuming Scott runs for reelection — Likely D if he doesn’t)
Likely R: SD, TX, IA, FL, MA (assuming Baker runs for reelection — Lean D if he doesn’t)
Lean R: AK, AZ, KS
Toss-up/Tilt R: NV, WI, MI, NH (assuming Sununu runs for Senate — Safe R if he doesn’t)
Toss-up/Tilt D: GA, PA
Lean D: ME
Likely D: MD, NM, MN, CT, RI
Safe D: CA, OR, CO, IL, NY

So R+3, with four R gains in NV/WI/MI/KS and one D gain in GA.

You’re forgetting the D gain in MD.

[MT Treasurer]

You’re forgetting the D gain in MD.

Good catch, thank you. Apparently my mind has already written that one off and still can’t believe that it was ever a R hold in the first place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is in deep trouble in MI not Evers

The reason why Evers leads on the two polls taken is that he has youthful Nelson running, the Rs make it seem like Evers is too old to be Prez but Johnson is the same age as Evers and he is DONE


Last two polls have Evers and Nelson leading 48/44 and I Endorsed Smith in IA already he can win off the back of Abby Fink

D's can also lose OR with Jessica Gomez, she seems like a nontraditional R, Knute almost beat Brown


The reason why Craig can beat Whitmer because he is an Afro American

OR isn't safe D





Fully endorse this map
NAN Whaley can win off of Ryan beating  Mandel, Abrams isn't running yet. UNDERSTESTIMATE JACKSON, BEASLEY, ABBY FINK, AND KUNCE IF YOU WANT RS

Fully endorse this map Whitmer is losing to Craig by six pts same as Hassan

Bartlette can certainly win in PA even if Lamb or Fetterman win

The D's are up 9 pts ahead on Generic ballot a a blue wave can develop

This isn't my final map but in order for D's to keep the H, FL, OH, NC and Ia have more pt value and the R state Legislature are gonna be a check on D Govs except for IL, and Cali of course. States don't have to vote the way they would in Prez Election and we haven't had 2 Elections in a row duplicate maps

[Real Texan Politics]

So you think Baker won't run for re-election? And I'm surprised you didn't make Georgia blue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abrams haven't said she is running