1976: Ford wins
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  1976: Ford wins
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Spark
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« on: June 14, 2021, 09:49:49 PM »

What would have happened if incumbent President Ford won with the below map:

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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2021, 11:57:43 PM »

Democrats win 1980.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2021, 12:57:22 AM »


Vice President Bob Dole (R-KS) / Congressman Jack Kemp (R-NY)
Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA) / Senator Lawton Chiles (D-FL) ✓
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2021, 01:54:41 PM »

While Gerald Ford likely handles the challenges of the late 1970s better than IRL, the economy still would have been an issue, so Jimmy Carter likely makes a comeback in 1980 and wins handily against Bob Dole:

Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Lloyd Bensten (D-TX): 421 EVs (55%)
Vice President Bob Dole (R-KS)/Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld (R-IL): 117 EVs (43%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The Senate is around 70-30 in favor of the Democrats and the House is around 300-135 in favor of the Democrats, giving President-elect Jimmy Carter a solid Congressional mandate. President Jimmy Carter is likely able to turn around the economy and get inflation under control by 1982, which will allow him to get reelected handily in 1984, possibly getting close to a 50 state sweep if he plays his cards right. The Democrats are also a lot more moderate in this scenario, which will allow them to stay in power longer than IRL.
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Chips
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2021, 10:50:54 PM »

1980 is almost certainly a Dem win.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2021, 09:44:06 AM »

While Ford instead of Carter as president probably would've made little difference for 1977-1981, the ripple effect through today (no Reagan revolution, etc) is hard to apprehend.

One of the most important "butterfly effect" elections I can think of, even if the presidential term in question wasn't all that consequential,
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2021, 10:34:19 AM »

While Ford instead of Carter as president probably would've made little difference for 1977-1981, the ripple effect through today (no Reagan revolution, etc) is hard to apprehend.

One of the most important "butterfly effect" elections I can think of, even if the presidential term in question wasn't all that consequential,
I agree that both parties would be very different today if Gerald Ford win in 1976. The Republicans would probably remain similar to how they were during the Eisenhower era on policies, whereas the Democrats likely would take the Christian Democratic route (especially if Jimmy Carter runs again and wins in 1980). The Democratic Party’s main base of support would probably be the South, Appalachia, and the Rust Belt, whereas the Republicans would remain strong in upper New England, states with high suburban populations, and in the Western states.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2021, 11:23:29 AM »

Two terms of either President Gary Hart or President Ted Kennedy
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2021, 09:34:16 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2021, 11:27:14 AM by McGarnagle's Been Vaccinated »

38 - President Gerald Ford (R-MI)
August 9, 1974 - January 20, 1981
Narrowly defeated Jimmy Carter in 1976

39 - President Walter Mondale (D-MN)
January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1989
Easily defeated Bob Dole in 1980 and George H. W. Bush in 1984

40 - President Gary Hart (D-CO)
January 20, 1989 - January 20, 1993
Narrowly defeated Pete Wilson in 1988, lost to Howard Baker in 1992

41 - President Howard Baker (R-TN)
January 20, 1993 - January 20, 2001
Easily defeated Gary Hart in 1992 and Al Gore in 1996;
Soviet Union crumbles in 1996 in this timeline rather than 1991

42 - President Bill Clinton (D-AR)
January 20, 2001 - January 20, 2009
Narrowly defeated Jeb Bush in 2000, easily defeated Mike Huckabee in 2004
9/11 still happens but bin Laden is captured, tried and convicted in 2002, Iraq is not invaded

43 - President John McCain (R-AZ)
January 20, 2009 - January 20, 2017
Narrowly defeated John Kerry in 2008 and easily defeated Martin O'Malley in 2012

44 - President Barack Obama (D-IL)
January 20, 2017 - January 20, 2025
Easily defeated Mitt Romney in 2016 and Donald Trump in 2020

ELECTIONS 1976-2020

1976 - Ford/Dole (R) defeats Carter/Church (D)
1980 - Mondale/Hart (D) defeats Dole/Reagan (R)
1984 - Mondale/Hart (D) defeats Bush/Quayle (R)
1988 - Hart/Bentsen (D) defeats Wilson/Laxalt (R)
1992 - Baker/Crane (R) defeats Hart/Bentsen (D)
1996 - Baker/Crane (R) defeats Gore/Gephardt (D)
2000 - Clinton/Kerry (D) defeats Bush/Gramm (R)
2004 - Clinton/Kerry (D) defeats Huckabee/Santorum (R)
2008 - McCain/Romney (R) defeats Kerry/Clark (D)
2012 - McCain/Romney (R) defeats O'Malley/Edwards (D)
2016 - Obama/Kaine (D) defeats Romney/Ryan (R)
2020 - Obama/Kaine (D) defeats Trump/Moore (R)
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2021, 12:29:30 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2021, 12:37:01 AM by Christian Man »

While Ford would initially be popular, averting the oil/ much of the inflation controversies, he would narrowly lose re-election due to an economic slowdown (although not a recession at this point) and him being weakened by a primary challenger to the right (Likely someone like Jesse Helms).

1980:



While most moderates were initially hesitant about a Kennedy candidacy, he chose senate minority leader Robert Byrd who was acceptable to both Dixiecrats and progressives as a compromise candidate for VP. Kennedy's strategy proved to be successful.

Senator Ted Kennedy/Senator Robert Byrd: 49%
President Gerald Ford/Vice President Bob Dole: 49%


1984: With a roaring economy, V.P. nominee Bob Dole is seen as a sacrificial lamb against incumbent president Ted Kennedy. Kennedy is credited for reviving the Rust Belt economy, averting a potentially devastating farming crisis in its early stages, and for his foreign policy successes, including de-escalation of The Soviet Union. Despite Kennedy's successes, Dole has gained some respect among Southern conservatives, some of whom voted for Kennedy but were alienated by his liberalism during his first term. Unlike Reagan, Dole is not able to fire up The Christian Right and they are likely not going to become a formidable voting group until the culture wars of the 1990s.



President Ted Kennedy/Vice President Robert Byrd: 54%
Former Vice President Bob Dole/Representative Jack Kemp: 44%
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