Why Did California Swing Right in 2020?
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  Why Did California Swing Right in 2020?
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Author Topic: Why Did California Swing Right in 2020?  (Read 1462 times)
perpetual_cynic
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« on: June 14, 2021, 04:47:45 PM »

Do you think it is bad for Democrats or a warning that CA swung to the right in 2020, or is it just a result of high third-party vote in 2016?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2021, 04:57:56 PM »

Primarily because of Hispanics and Asians swinging right.

Democrats should hope it happens more. The EC/PV disparity is partly due to the fact that they pile up so many wasted votes in California.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2021, 07:53:34 PM »

It swung 0.95 percent

Its a a D +30 state. Any election will be different by a point or two. The weather can affect something like this

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ملكة كرينجيتوك
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2021, 09:23:51 PM »

Do you think it is bad for Democrats or a warning that CA swung to the right in 2020, or is it just a result of high third-party vote in 2016?

Yes, although it's irrelevant on the presidential level. I wouldn't worry about it if it was an anti-lockdown/schools closing/single-party rule in a Titanium D state thing that was unique to the 2020 environment.

Primarily because of Hispanics and Asians swinging right.

Democrats should hope it happens more. The EC/PV disparity is partly due to the fact that they pile up so many wasted votes in California.

Elections are about winning hearts and minds, not minimizing the EC/PV disparity. California swinging R because of Latinos and Asians is not good for the Dems if it wasn't just a COVID-related or pro-incumbent swing.
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bayareabay
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2021, 09:51:28 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2021, 09:54:34 PM by bayareabay »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2021, 11:31:56 PM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2021, 11:41:48 PM »

Biden doing the Hispanic  [and pretty much every voting bloc except college educated and +65ers honestly] vote dirty did no favors.

That said, he still took in the highest percentage...ever. Trump largely just picked up the third party votes...which is a bit of the reverse of nationwide trends.
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bayareabay
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2021, 12:22:31 AM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

Stop being nbphobic
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2021, 12:23:01 AM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2021, 12:35:54 AM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2021, 01:07:36 AM »

Dead cat bounce.  Democrats were maxed out so a bit of reversion to mean, same happened in Hawaii.
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bayareabay
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2021, 02:34:20 AM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2021, 02:37:44 AM »

Democrats should hope it happens more. The EC/PV disparity is partly due to the fact that they pile up so many wasted votes in California.

Uh, no?  Those "wasted votes" in the presidential election usually help carry downballot Dems over the finish line in some of the swingier congressional districts.

Besides, there would be no such thing as a "wasted vote" or an EC/PV disparity if we could just hurry up and get rid of the EC already.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2021, 02:40:30 AM »

Oh, and the swing we're talking about here is a whopping 0.83%.  That's slightly less than the swing from Obama to Romney in 2012.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2021, 04:06:23 AM »

Not Another "California Swung Right in 2020?!?" thread.

Where's all the threads about why Nebraska & Kansas swung 6 points leftwards or similarly-partisan Idaho swinging 1.1% to the Dems?

Anyway, I've said plenty on this topic so here's a compilation:


Amongst the counties that swung to Trump:


Counties where Biden improved on Obama/Clinton percentage & Trump improved on his 2016 percentage (But not McCain/Romney): Alameda, Colusa, Merced, San Francisco, San Joaquin, Sutter, Yolo

County where Biden did better than Obama (but not Clinton) & Trump improved on his 2016 percentage (But not McCain/Romney): Los Angeles, Santa Clara

County where Biden did better than Clinton (but not Obama) & Trump improved on his 2016 percentage (But not McCain/Romney): Stanislaus

Counties where Biden did worse than Obama/Clinton & Trump improved on McCain/Romney/2016 percentage: Calaveras, Imperial, Lassen


Biden did better than Obama & Clinton. It's just that Trump improved more from the abysmal bar he set himself in 2016.

When you break it down on the county-level, I'd be much more concerned for the GOP's position than the Dems right now. Clinton "did better" than Biden by a whopping 0.8% margin despite swings in LA & SF Bay. The Dem vote is becoming more spread out and you'd be a fool for thinking improvement in Imperial County + dead cat bounces in LA & SF are a worthy trade-off for growing Dem margins in formerly-GOP San Diego, Orange, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Fresno, San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

And hell, all this talk about SF/LA/Imperial ignores the fact that Trump won Kern County & Bakersfield by the closest margin since 1976. That is as big of a warning sign for the CA GOP's current predicament as I've ever seen. Where's all the threads about that?


For a state plenty of folks here considered "maxed out for Dems", there certainly seems to be a lot of (slightly) overblown analysis & questions regarding California 2020.


I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.


I love how much hay has been made about California swinging a gargantuan 0.8% to the right (Not just in this thread)


Biden was the 3rd presidential candidate to ever get >70% in LA County. But we're supposed to be astounded that Trump's performance was only the second worst for a runner-up in 100 years?


One thing I'm surprised more people are talking about is how despite many suburbs swinging hard left, many city centers like Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, Dallas, LA, ect, ect swung right. For the most part, these cities are so one sided that only winning a district 80-20 as opposed to 90-10 isn't going to make a difference, but if the GOP can continue to make gains in these city centers as Trump did, it might cancel out some of the suburban trend, and could potentially bring states like NY and IL into play down the road. What do you think?

I think you just answered your own question.

Not to mention, Trump's percents in LA & San Francisco were the 2nd worst for a Republican in 104 years, next to his 2016 performance.

Or that Trump percents in San Diego, Orange & Riverside Counties were the 4th worst for a Republican since 1912.

But yeah, California Democrats oughta be scared sh*tless


Trump improved his vote% in Los Angeles County.

Trump improved his vote% in Hispanic-heavy communities.

Compton is a Hispanic-heavy community in Los Angeles County.

Trump improved his vote% in Compton,California.


You'll wind up with similar answers if you asked about Imperial County, Fontana, Coachella, Santa Ana or any other majority-minority SoCal community. Just because it's "infamous" doesn't make Compton an exception.

Frankly, I think 95% of the questions or analysis this election regarding California & swings/trends/improvements can be summed up as either "COVID-related angst among working-class minorities" or "Just noise"


I honestly don't think there's anything to extrapolate from California swinging <1% to the right other than "California swinging <1% to the right".

Even with the "significant" swing in LA, Biden is still only the second Democrat to ever get 70% there.

Can't decipher anything from it yet, stabilization or otherwise. Certainly not from one election


Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Not really. To reiterate what I said earlier...

- This is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County
- The 4th election a Dem ever won OC (And he got a bigger percentage than Hillary)
- The 2nd biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County ever and the biggest win for a candidate since 1988
- The 3rd biggest win for a Dem in the Inland Empire (Behind 1964 & 1936)
- The narrowest margin in Kern County since 1976

And that's just in Southern California.


Biden's lead in California is now over 5 million.  Insane.  But so many wasted votes.  That really explains the entire problem Dems have in the electoral college and senate.

If California gerrymandered they could give themselves a real advantage in the house.  But of course Dems love sticking to their principles while the GOP destroys the country.  

A. "Really bad for Democrats to see California vote as strongly for them this year. Portends to ominous trends in the Electoral & popular vote gap."

B. "Really bad for Democrats to see California swing very slightly to the right this year. Portends to ominous trends in their future appeal to Asians/Hispanics"

Choose your own California political adventure. Either way, California can do no right
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2021, 12:18:51 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2021, 12:28:31 PM by erwint.2021 »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.

No, I'm not transphobic. I'm opposed to white people inventing a term about other races and groups of people to complete their sulf-fulfilling prophecy of moral virtue signaling that racial minorities resent. In addition, saying someone is transphobic is not an insult you just throw around at people. It is not an argument and it is frankly very childish.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2021, 04:18:21 PM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.

Latinos dislike "latinx" for linguistical reasons. Just say you're racist and go.

See how easy this is?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2021, 04:33:32 PM »

So, since this trend is destined to continue forever, CA will be a swing state in 120 years when all of us except for olawakandi are dead!
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #18 on: June 15, 2021, 05:12:24 PM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.

Latinos dislike "latinx" for linguistical reasons. Just say you're racist and go.

See how easy this is?

English is one of the only languages that does not have gendered nouns. If we release Latino or Latina with Latinx we would also have to replace 'La bicicleta' with 'La bicicletx'. Approximately 75% of Latinos have never even heard of Latinx, and 65% don't want to be referred to this way. Source: NPR https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2020/08/11/901398248/hispanic-latino-or-latinx-survey-says
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2021, 05:17:18 PM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.

Latinos dislike "latinx" for linguistical reasons. Just say you're racist and go.

See how easy this is?

English is one of the only languages that does not have gendered nouns. If we release Latino or Latina with Latinx we would also have to replace 'La bicicleta' with 'La bicicletx'. Approximately 75% of Latinos have never even heard of Latinx, and 65% don't want to be referred to this way. Source: NPR https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2020/08/11/901398248/hispanic-latino-or-latinx-survey-says

Certainly. The entire idea makes absolutely no sense to anyone who prefers to actually engage with the Spanish language instead of sling around hyperbolic insults as if they're valid argumentative points in and of themselves.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2021, 06:01:24 PM »

LA county swung right by 5 points likely due to their large Asian and Latinx population shifting right. White voters in California shifted more left from 2016 and it balanced out almost evenly.

Stop using that term.

I completely agree. All of the Hispanics I have talked to have expressed resentment or even ignorance of this term. They really don't care and many take offense.

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.

Latinos dislike "latinx" for linguistical reasons. Just say you're racist and go.

See how easy this is?

English is one of the only languages that does not have gendered nouns. If we release Latino or Latina with Latinx we would also have to replace 'La bicicleta' with 'La bicicletx'. Approximately 75% of Latinos have never even heard of Latinx, and 65% don't want to be referred to this way. Source: NPR https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2020/08/11/901398248/hispanic-latino-or-latinx-survey-says

Certainly. The entire idea makes absolutely no sense to anyone who prefers to actually engage with the Spanish language instead of sling around hyperbolic insults as if they're valid argumentative points in and of themselves.

In addition, those that identify as female are Latina and those that identify as non-binary can identify as Hispanics, which many Hispanics prefer anyway.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2021, 06:20:21 PM »

Higher turnout and less active voters turning out. It's nothing to worry about though in my opinion. I say this all the time about 2020 swings to Trump, but with some exceptions (Mahoning County, Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley) most of the swings were probably just temporary noise in a completely unique election. I'm not all that concerned about a 1% or less swing here or in Illinois, Nevada, Washington D.C., etc.

The only California result I am still actively bothered by is CA-25.

Oh wait, a "latinx" discussion? I made a mistake posting here. I will never be back.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2021, 11:17:33 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2021, 11:21:50 PM by erwint.2021 »

Higher turnout and less active voters turning out. It's nothing to worry about though in my opinion. I say this all the time about 2020 swings to Trump, but with some exceptions (Mahoning County, Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley) most of the swings were probably just temporary noise in a completely unique election. I'm not all that concerned about a 1% or less swing here or in Illinois, Nevada, Washington D.C., etc.

The only California result I am still actively bothered by is CA-25.

Oh wait, a "latinx" discussion? I made a mistake posting here. I will never be back.

I agree it is not cause for concern. The power that LA County had was immense. Frankly, I'm not even that concerned about the LA County swing because LA County also shifted towards Obama in 2012. It seems the incumbent gets a boost.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2021, 02:38:58 AM »

All of North America is moving leftward and the San Andreas fault was like "nuh uh."
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2021, 11:07:40 AM »

Transphobic people dislike "latinx" for transphobic reasons. Just say you're transphobic and opposed to change in the community and go.
I dislike "Latinx", but more because I think it sounds stupid and like Elon Musk trying to bring back ancient Rome. Am I transphobic?
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