Philly Suburbs Shift Towards Democrats

[Frodo]

Philly Suburbs Shift Toward Democrats

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: September 24, 2006
Filed at 1:00 p.m. ET

DOYLESTOWN, Pa. (AP) -- Growing disenchantment over the Iraq war is proving the great equalizer in many areas, blurring traditional social and demographic distinctions that made it easy to paint sections of the electoral map red or blue.

Take the well-off Philadelphia suburbs, bastions of sidewalk cafes and million-dollar-plus homes. Here, Ginny McGovern, a mother of two and a nutrition therapist, no longer considers herself the lone Democratic voice among a chorus of Republicans.

McGovern said she and her neighbors now are singing from the same page -- at least on issues such as the war, spending and President Bush.

''I think they were all for Bush in the beginning, but I think now they've kind of changed their tune a little bit,'' said McGovern, 42. ''It doesn't matter if they're Republican or Democrat, they all think it's unnecessary.''

The wealthy Philadelphia suburbs historically have been a Republican stronghold, but recent shifts in voter registration and voting patterns have moved the region toward the Democrats.

This summer, for the first time since the state began keeping registration records in 1934, slightly more than 49 percent of voters in the four-county region listed their affiliation as Republican.

In 1990, 63 percent of voters in Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester counties were Republicans. Since then, Democratic registration has increased 7 percent to more than one-third of voters while the number of independent and minor party members doubled to 14 percent.

Whether the registration shift coupled with unhappiness with the president, the war and the country's direction translates into Democratic wins in three GOP-held seats and the competitive Senate race is the million-dollar question.

[Alcon]

I think that Northern and Western suburbs are where Bush is hurting most, but for very different reasons than his similar cratering in places like Ohio.  Here, instead of economic downturns, he's actually managed to lose support among those who are still well-off.

[Keystone Phil]

We've known this for awhile now. Did the AP run out of stories to write up?

[TomC]

I think that Northern and Western suburbs are where Bush is hurting most, but for very different reasons than his similar cratering in places like Ohio.  Here, instead of economic downturns, he's actually managed to lose support among those who are still well-off.

I would have said he's managed to lose support among those who are educated, but same difference.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think that Northern and Western suburbs are where Bush is hurting most, but for very different reasons than his similar cratering in places like Ohio.  Here, instead of economic downturns, he's actually managed to lose support among those who are still well-off.

In my opinion it's more western and southwestern Philly suburbs.  Bucks for some reason is fielding a solid GOP organization, while Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware counties are flying leftward.  Reason I think is because Bucks County receives more conservative, Catholic NE Philly transplants while the others are simply moving left.  I do think 20-30 somethings in these counties are quite liberal.  I've been at parties with people from the suburbs and their liberalism is quite extreme (Free Mumia). 

Side note-  I think there is a greater generation gap with political views in the Philly suburbs as opposed to Northeast/South Philly.  Of 20-30 somethings, I find more conservatives in the latter areas as opposed to the Philly burbs. 

[Smash255]

This ties into many other suburban areas as well.  The NYC suburbs, especially Long Island were traditional Republican Strongholds, but despite a GOP voting registartion advantage (though its closing pretty sharply) the area is now quite Democratic.  With the exception of LBJ's 64 landslide the GOp won every pres election in Nassau from 1916 to 88 & Suffolk to 92.  dems have won every time since, 04 was closer due to 9/11 bump Bush had, but 96 & 00 were both double digit victories (just udner 20 both years in Nassau.  In the 90's 4 out of the 5 LI congressman were Republican, now 4 out of the 5 are Democrats, and while likley to win the lone Republican Peter King is the only one who isn't safe.  Both county governments were long controlled by the GOP now both nassau & Suffolk Counties have Dem County Executives, Dem legislatures, Dem DA's.

The Demm suburban swing isn't just limited to NY & Philly.  believe it or noot the Boston & San Fran suburbs were once GOP friendly (they were the first ones to really change).  Now we are seeing sharp changes in the D.C suburbs (the MD side has generally been solid Dem, but the VA side fairfax especially was a strong GOP stronghold.  Now the suburbs in Northn VA could soon move VA into a toss up state.  Same thing with suburban Denver.  the Boulder area has long been Dem friendly, but has become a bit stronger of late & much of the surrounding area is moving in a Democratic direction.

[nini2287]

This is exactly true.  It seems the only kind of Republicans who can win around my area are Rockefeller/socially liberal Republicans.  I feel as if I know more Republicans who voted for Kerry than who voted for Bush (in Montgomery County, PA not here at school).  This trend is even starting to go down to state and local races--in the 2005 school board primary in my district, a Democratic incumbent made the ballot as both a Democrat and a Republican, denying a true Republican a ballot spot.