Israel General Discussion: Dawn of the Post-Netanyahu Era

[NewYorkExpress]

The former head of Mossad, Efraim Halevy, says Netanyahu made a mistake attempting to scuttle the Iran nuclear deal.

Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a "big mistake" by trying to scuttle the Iran nuclear deal as it brought Tehran closer to acquiring nuclear weapons, said Efraim Halevy, the former Mossad chief during Netanyahu's first term as prime minister.

Speaking on the Haaretz Weekly podcast, Halevy said, "I have always thought that it was a grave mistake to pressure the previous President of the United States, Donald Trump, to leave the agreement, to more or less cancel the United States’ involvement in this aspect of the relationship with Iran.

“I thought it was a big mistake and the fact of the matter is if we look at the events which took place [since Trump exited] the agreement on behalf of the United States, the situation versus Iran has become all that much worse.”

According to Halevy, Netanyahu also made a significant mistake by publicizing Mossad operations against Iran, which were part of “an attempt to shame the Iranians” but which backfired and produced “negative” results.

[Angel of Death]

Bezalel Smotrich acknowledges the Nakba.

[Hnv1]

Vote on the budget on Wednesday/Thursday. The opposition will filibuster but its 97% going to pass.

Afterwards the government is “safe” for two years, which means that Lapid would be appointed PM in some capacity even if it falls before the rotation date. That is unless the government falls in a constructive vote of no confidence by a majority of 61 (unlikely).

[America Needs R'hllor]

2021 budget passed with no problems. 2022 budget expected today. It includes a minimum wage increase, a raise of women's retirement age and taxes on sugary drinks and plastic dishes that'll raise their prices significantly.

[Hnv1]

2021 budget passed with no problems. 2022 budget expected today. It includes a minimum wage increase, a raise of women's retirement age and taxes on sugary drinks and plastic dishes that'll raise their prices significantly.

There are many huge reforms here. The treasury is going to stop buying secured bonds for pension funds, this will inject some NIS 10 billion into the stock market (though could cause a stir with the NIS\USD rates) and other big reforms. Also, the agricultural reform has finally passed (though considerably softened).

The tax on plastic dishes has actually already been installed by a decree on 31/10, as it is a levy on plastic commodities stocks not on purchase, but never mind that.

They actually tanked the minimum wage, the gradual increase until 2026 is already running behind considering inflation. and they also reformed the working week terribly (saying this is the anti-socialist here) for the workers. Instead of reducing the workweek and workday, employers can now take even more use of employees by forcing an 11 hours workday on them.


After today the coalition will be secured technically but still fragile. The next big legislation is the draft bill and other defense-related issues Gantz is going to be frustrating about

[Hnv1]

House ego maniac Amihai Shikli (nominally Yamina) is going to be declared "unfaithful" MK after voting against the budget. If he does not resign his seat before such declaration he will not be able to run with any party currently represented in the house (i.e., Likud) next round.


I personally find him the most self-righteous muppet to have graced our parliament.

[Hnv1]

After three days Emili Moati (Labour, not the sharpest pencil) misplaced a vote and a part of the budget failed. there were fears the budget for 2022 would have to be delayed but Elkin (the master of the house procedure) call for an immediate vote to stop the session and resume discussion of that part of the budget in the finance committee of the house. The vote on the budget will resume later.


And that's why Bibi's biggest loss was losing both Saar and Elkin, their mastery of the fine details of procedure and politics got him so many victories in the past.

[Hnv1]

The budget for 2021 and 2022 passed. The coalition might still fall due to disagreements, but now Lapid will most likely become the PM if that happens. I've mapped out the different routes for those who can't keep tabs on the pace of changes to our constitution:

Scenario 1: everything runs smoothly, the 2023 budget passes by March 31, 2023, the rotation happens in August 2023 and Lapid is PM.

Scenario 2: the 2023 budget does not pass by the March 31, 2023, Lapid becomes PM but the Knesset dissolves and we go to elections.

Scenario 3: At any point from now until the rotation date the Knesset votes to dissolve itself (a majority of 61 in 3 hearings is required). If 2 MKs from parties "linked" to Bennett vote to dissolve (i.e., New Hope and Yamina but excluding Shikli) then Lapid becomes interim PM.
Note that as things are standing Ra'am is not linked to anyone, so if Ra'am joins the opposition and the JL and votes to dissolve the Knesset (62 seats combined), Bennett remains interim PM (what happens then if no new government is formed until the rotation date? this is still "unknown").
Note that if Meretz or Labour joins in on such vote due to criticism from the left (or in Labour's case, Michaeli's desire not to see Lapid in office), Bennett remains PM.

Scenario 4: motion of no confidence. since 2002 Israel abolished the standard option for a motion of no confidence and now there can only be a constructive vote of no confidence. That means 61 MKs in the house right now need to vote against the government and suggest an alternative government. In that case, the government falls. neither Lapid nor Bennett can be proposed as PM or alternative PM in such a vote.
the Bibi opposition has 52 seats atm (53 with Shikli who might resign), they need 8-9 more. It was floated that they will offer Gantz the PM role so they will have 61 for a new government. It seems Gantz isn't down, nor is his party, nor do a lot of Likud MKs. so that's off the cards.
As the Ra'am option remains untenable, the only alternative atm is the scenario where Bibi resigns\loses his primaries and the new leader of Likud forms a government with his bloc and New Hope + Yamina. Unlikely.

Scenario 5: miscellaneous. If from now until the rotation Bennet is: (i) convicted in an unappealable decision of a competent court, (ii) resigns, (iii) dies, (iv) medically incapacitated, (v) resigns as MK; then Lapid becomes acting PM.
In the case Bennet can resume office in good health he can do so.
In the case of subsection (i) (ii) (iii) (v) or (iv) where Bennett is too ill to resume office, then his party (Yamina, though if Yamina merges with NH by then...) can choose a new leader, and if he receives the confidence of the house in a vote he\she can resume office up to a week before the rotation date. otherwise, the knesset dissolves and Lapid remains as interim PM.

I hope this sorts everything out

[Conservatopia]

Whoever drafted the above Basic Law must be whip-smart because that's pretty watertight.

[Hnv1]

Whoever drafted the above Basic Law must be whip-smart because that's pretty watertight.

Basically in 2020 Gantz had so little faith in Bibi (he wasn’t wrong) so they just moved their coalition agreement into the constitution…they brought Avi Licht a former deputy of the attorney general (clever person and I can attest to that in person) to draft it, but even he forgot the budget slip and Lapid-Bennett changed it when they assumed office.

It goes to show how weak a constitution is where every new government for decades had to change it to accommodate their contingent agreements. And that the political game can always outsmart the legal text

[Hnv1]

Another amendment to the basic law just passed preliminary vote. A 8 year cap to tenure as PM with a blank slate every 3 years. Odd arrangement in a parliamentary system but that gives Sa’ar a publicity score against Bibi.

4 new justices to be elected today to court. So far judge Khaked Kabub (TA district) a certainty to become the SC first Muslim justice (on a permanent post). The rest are TBD

[NewYorkExpress]

The Netanyahu's are suing Ehud Olmert for saying they are mentally ill.

Two former Israeli prime ministers have faced off in court in Tel Aviv, as Benjamin Netanyahu and his family began a defamation suit against Ehud Olmert.

Mr Netanyahu, his wife Sara, and their eldest son Yair are suing Mr Olmert for $269,000 (£198,000) in damages for saying that they were mentally ill.

Mr Olmert made the claim in two Israeli TV interviews last April.

He is arguing that it was not libellous because it was true, and also that he was clearly expressing an opinion.

The suit filed by the Netanyahus accuses Mr Olmert of "obsessive efforts to harm their good name in public, out of jealousy and deep frustration".

It is based on two interviews he gave in the wake of Israel's last general election, when Mr Netanyahu was attempting to remain in power while standing trial on corruption charges.


In the first, Mr Olmert told DemocraTV: "What can't be fixed is the mental illness of the prime minister and his wife and son. That's not fixable."

In the second interview, with Channel 12, he refused to retract the claim and laughed when warned that he might be sued.


At Monday's hearing Mr Olmert was asked by Judge Amit Yariv what he had based his comments on.

"I followed their actions, I heard recordings of the family, I conferred with experts and people who are associated with them and know them well," he answered, according to the Times of Israel. "They described to me behaviours that are popularly seen as abnormal, crazy behaviour."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another amendment to the basic law just passed preliminary vote. A 8 year cap to tenure as PM with a blank slate every 3 years. Odd arrangement in a parliamentary system but that gives Sa’ar a publicity score against Bibi.

4 new justices to be elected today to court. So far judge Khaked Kabub (TA district) a certainty to become the SC first Muslim justice (on a permanent post). The rest are TBD

Obviously any PM that has the political capital to last longer than 8 years can simply repeal it.

Thanks for the rundown btw. That was really helpful to understand the mess that is current Israeli constitutional law.

[DavidB.]

They actually tanked the minimum wage, the gradual increase until 2026 is already running behind considering inflation. and they also reformed the working week terribly (saying this is the anti-socialist here) for the workers. Instead of reducing the workweek and workday, employers can now take even more use of employees by forcing an 11 hours workday on them.

Aren't Labor and Meretz supposed not to do this kind of thing? How are they selling it to their members/voters?

[Hnv1]

Another amendment to the basic law just passed preliminary vote. A 8 year cap to tenure as PM with a blank slate every 3 years. Odd arrangement in a parliamentary system but that gives Sa’ar a publicity score against Bibi.

4 new justices to be elected today to court. So far judge Khaked Kabub (TA district) a certainty to become the SC first Muslim justice (on a permanent post). The rest are TBD

Obviously any PM that has the political capital to last longer than 8 years can simply repeal it.

Thanks for the rundown btw. That was really helpful to understand the mess that is current Israeli constitutional law.

Well the more dramatic piece on the works is a new Basic Law: Legislation, that will define a new procedure to enact basic laws that will take a longer period of time thus thwarting political whimsical behaviours with constitutional norms. Moreover it is going to regulate judicial review and possibly finish the Israeli constitution (the why and how require some complicated considerations of constitutional theory I will spare you).

If both pieces pass it will be difficult for any politician to change basic laws ad hoc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another amendment to the basic law just passed preliminary vote. A 8 year cap to tenure as PM with a blank slate every 3 years. Odd arrangement in a parliamentary system but that gives Sa’ar a publicity score against Bibi.

4 new justices to be elected today to court. So far judge Khaked Kabub (TA district) a certainty to become the SC first Muslim justice (on a permanent post). The rest are TBD

Obviously any PM that has the political capital to last longer than 8 years can simply repeal it.

Thanks for the rundown btw. That was really helpful to understand the mess that is current Israeli constitutional law.

Well the more dramatic piece on the works is a new Basic Law: Legislation, that will define a new procedure to enact basic laws that will take a longer period of time thus thwarting political whimsical behaviours with constitutional norms. Moreover it is going to regulate judicial review and possibly finish the Israeli constitution (the why and how require some complicated considerations of constitutional theory I will spare you).

If both pieces pass it will be difficult for any politician to change basic laws ad hoc.

Oh, interesting. I always wondered why Ben Gurion didn't ratify a proper constitution when he clearly had the legitimacy and political capital to do so. I have mixed feelings about a hodgepodge government held together by their mutual hatred of the other guy and hanging on by a threadbare Knesset majority doing so now.

[Hnv1]

They actually tanked the minimum wage, the gradual increase until 2026 is already running behind considering inflation. and they also reformed the working week terribly (saying this is the anti-socialist here) for the workers. Instead of reducing the workweek and workday, employers can now take even more use of employees by forcing an 11 hours workday on them.

Aren't Labor and Meretz supposed not to do this kind of thing? How are they selling it to their members/voters?

The is-ought gap is big within the Israeli left…

The Labour left and Meretz voters I think are mostly confused. After so many years in the opposition it’s not quite clear what they want. The old voters just want to see Bibi stay out. The radicals are unhappy about the Palestinians and the rest are in large disarray over policy. Horowitz got some minor achievements to the gay community so some of the libs are happy.
On the Labor law issues they seem to be quiet as this was agreed by the treasury and the workers union. I saw some resentment from fringe leftist in “standing together”. Nothing more.


Some MKs and voters do drift towards more socialist positions (strangely more in Labour with MK Lazimi at the fore), the rest seem more content with lobbying for the rich farmers or trying to signal their discontent with the situation at the West Bank (like Raz and Laski).

But overall it seems both parties are ambivalent about their unexpected place in a coalition. I think Labour voters are happier than Meretz voters atm though as Michaeli and Labour appear more competent and influential while Meretz in the Knesset are quiet as mice and Zandberg and Horowitz are not generally perceived as good ministers with the public.

[Hnv1]

Another amendment to the basic law just passed preliminary vote. A 8 year cap to tenure as PM with a blank slate every 3 years. Odd arrangement in a parliamentary system but that gives Sa’ar a publicity score against Bibi.

4 new justices to be elected today to court. So far judge Khaked Kabub (TA district) a certainty to become the SC first Muslim justice (on a permanent post). The rest are TBD

Obviously any PM that has the political capital to last longer than 8 years can simply repeal it.

Thanks for the rundown btw. That was really helpful to understand the mess that is current Israeli constitutional law.

Well the more dramatic piece on the works is a new Basic Law: Legislation, that will define a new procedure to enact basic laws that will take a longer period of time thus thwarting political whimsical behaviours with constitutional norms. Moreover it is going to regulate judicial review and possibly finish the Israeli constitution (the why and how require some complicated considerations of constitutional theory I will spare you).

If both pieces pass it will be difficult for any politician to change basic laws ad hoc.

Oh, interesting. I always wondered why Ben Gurion didn't ratify a proper constitution when he clearly had the legitimacy and political capital to do so. I have mixed feelings about a hodgepodge government held together by their mutual hatred of the other guy and hanging on by a threadbare Knesset majority doing so now.

Ben Gurion wasn’t very excited about having any constraints on his government and had a very basic notion of democracy. He was against any binding of future Parliament by former majorities and disliked the liberal discourse of rights.

In Israel coalitions are usually built on hate of someone, leftist, Haredi, or Arab. There is simply no other way in such a diverse and polarised political climate to form coalitions on mutual positive agreements

[Hnv1]

We might be heading toward a rocky period. Heavy rumours Bibi is opting for a plea bargain before the AG Mandelblitt (i.e. the worse jurist in Israel) finish his tenure on February 1st. Former Chief Justice Barak, i.e., self-proclaimed judge Hercules, endorsed it publicly.

The big issue here for the non Israeli posters is that Bibi either resigns from the Knesset (and possibly public life) or “convicted with shame” (an Israeli legal term) right now.
Anyhow that’s a 7 years minimum period in which he is blocked from becoming an MK and thus PM. As he’s already passed the age of 70 that will be goodbye to him.
Moreover if this were to happen the Likud will elect an interim leader and that leader could, on paper, form a right wing government with New Hope and parts of Yamina via a constructive motion of no confidence.

It would be hard for people like Elkin, Shaked and Haskel to withhold the pressure and stay in a government with Ra’am and Meretz

[Hnv1]

NSOgate in full force. It appears the police had hacked the phones of well everybody using NSO software without warrants or beyond their scope.

Politicians, senior civil servants, mayors, business leaders, the son of Bibi, and others were all hacked.

The government will probably have a state inquiry panel to look into it. This will be the third panel formed within the last year.

The bizarre part is that atm neither the police nor the ministry of justice has any clear idea on how wide was the rogue SIGINT operation. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

2021 budget passed with no problems. 2022 budget expected today. It includes a minimum wage increase, a raise of women's retirement age and taxes on sugary drinks and plastic dishes that'll raise their prices significantly.

If you tax sugary drinks, how are your taxes on cigarettes and alcohol?

[Hnv1]

2021 budget passed with no problems. 2022 budget expected today. It includes a minimum wage increase, a raise of women's retirement age and taxes on sugary drinks and plastic dishes that'll raise their prices significantly.

If you tax sugary drinks, how are your taxes on cigarettes and alcohol?

Pretty high. It was raised several years ago. And with alcohol you also have import taxes and costs making it quite hard to get drunk

[America Needs R'hllor]

NSOgate in full force. It appears the police had hacked the phones of well everybody using NSO software without warrants or beyond their scope.

Politicians, senior civil servants, mayors, business leaders, the son of Bibi, and others were all hacked.

The government will probably have a state inquiry panel to look into it. This will be the third panel formed within the last year.

The bizarre part is that atm neither the police nor the ministry of justice has any clear idea on how wide was the rogue SIGINT operation. 

Do you think it'll affect the Netanyahu trial like right wing hacks want it to?

[Hnv1]

NSOgate in full force. It appears the police had hacked the phones of well everybody using NSO software without warrants or beyond their scope.

Politicians, senior civil servants, mayors, business leaders, the son of Bibi, and others were all hacked.

The government will probably have a state inquiry panel to look into it. This will be the third panel formed within the last year.

The bizarre part is that atm neither the police nor the ministry of justice has any clear idea on how wide was the rogue SIGINT operation. 

Do you think it'll affect the Netanyahu trial like right wing hacks want it to?

It really depends.

From what I saw so far the only link alleged is that the use of Pegasus provided some leads on the misconduct of witnesses. This, however, does not raise the high bar set by the SC in several rulings (including one this year on the hacking into Bibi's media staff phones) to disqualify evidence or argue for a mistrial. Moreover, the police themselves say a lot of the information didn't move from SIGINT to intel and to investigations so I'm not sure how it could contaminate the investigation enough to disqualify evidence.

But who knows? The former chief of police is awfully quiet...and I'm sure there's more than meets the eyes here. NSOgate can prolong the trial though and force the prosecution to seek a softer plea bargain with Bibi if it would publically look like he was haunted down.

I personally find it both amusing and pleasant that Bibi's trial surfaces all sorts of claims the left raises against the police for years to public attention.

[Hnv1]

Another amendment to the basic law just passed preliminary vote. A 8 year cap to tenure as PM with a blank slate every 3 years. Odd arrangement in a parliamentary system but that gives Sa’ar a publicity score against Bibi.

4 new justices to be elected today to court. So far judge Khaked Kabub (TA district) a certainty to become the SC first Muslim justice (on a permanent post). The rest are TBD

4 new justices were picked in the end with two justices belonging to the liberal camp picked with Justice Kabub (the first Muslim justice on full appointment) and Justice Ronen, and two justices joining the conservative camp with Justice Kanfi-Steinitz (wife of) and respected barrister Yechiel Kasher.

By my count, the conservative camp now numbers 7 justices of the 15 justices of the supreme court. With two more justices to be picked later this year we might have the first conservative majority in the supreme court since the 1970's