Which House races do you think will be the closest in 2022?

[Schiff for Senate]

Which House races do you think will be the closest in 2022? Which party do you think will win each race and by how much?

[S019]

Going to need to wait for the maps, but my early guess is seats that Biden won around 9 or so with weak or mediocre incumbents that are not zooming towards the Democratic Party (I expect a red wave in 2022).

[Sir Mohamed]

We need the map first. It's possible Mike Garcia gets a more D-leaning seat redrawn and will either win very narrowly or lose very narrowly.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

We need the map first. It's possible Mike Garcia gets a more D-leaning seat redrawn and will either win very narrowly or lose very narrowly.

He's going to be blanched given that he seems to vote like he repersents rural kentucky rather than a double digit Biden District. Seriously voting to overturn the election resulsts was the dumbest thing he could have ever done.

[S019]

We need the map first. It's possible Mike Garcia gets a more D-leaning seat redrawn and will either win very narrowly or lose very narrowly.

His current seat is around Biden+10, and honestly I think a redrawn seat might be too blue for him to hold on, when you get to say Biden+13-15, the headwinds in that seat become quite perilous, and even in a bad midterm for Democrats, I think he'd go down by a somewhat decent margin (like 3-5)

[MATTROSE94]

Probably NJ-7 or a similar weak Biden district.

[Devils30]

Probably NJ-7 or a similar weak Biden district.

That one will be a good test of the post-insurrection GOP.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably NJ-7 or a similar weak Biden district.

That one will be a good test of the post-insurrection GOP.

You are right. Tom Kean Jr. seems to be neutral regarding Donald Trump, so I don’t know how well he would with moderate voters.

[Meatball Ron]

Very hard to speculate until we see the new district lines, but I think to the extent any of the Biden districts in CA with GOP incumbents keep the same or similar lines, those would be really close. Even in an R-leaning midterm, hard to see Garcia, Kim, etc. winning reelection by more than a couple of points under the current lines. The GOP is just on borrowed time in those districts, regardless of the national environment. Even though it's the most Democratic of the bunch, CA-21 is a bit of a different story because a) Valadao has a much longer history than these other Reps of over-performing b) Biden actually underperformed Clinton in the district, so it's trend isn't clearly Democratic.

Under current lines, I'd expect NV-03 and NV-04 to be really close in 2022, along with IA-03, VA-07, MI-08, and others. If Dems are having a good night, Cartwright's and Kind's districts could be close, though in a median scenario I'd expect them to lose by more than 2 points.

Again, I don't actually expect any of these districts to look the same in 2022 though.

[Pericles]

Assuming it's a relatively normal midterm, it's probably not a seat that was super close in 2020 but it probably is a Biden district. Maybe something like WA-08 which was D+4% and Biden+7%, so Republicans need a good year for a narrow win there now.

[Schiff for Senate]

Under current boundaries, I think that Wisconsin's 3rd (Southwest Wisconsin; Rep. Ron Kind (D)); Iowa's 3rd (Southwest Iowa; Rep. Cindy Axne (D)); Pennsylvania's 8th (Northeast Pennsylvania; Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)); Maine's 2nd (Rural Maine; Rep. Jared Golden (D)) Texas's 24th (Fort Worth suburbs; Rep. Beth van Duyne (R)); Illinois's 17th (Northwest Illinois; Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)) California's 39th (Los Angeles suburbs; Rep. Young Kim (R)) might be close. Wisconsin's 3rd voted for Trump, but voted for Kind by 3% - he has represented the district for nearly 25 years and has crossover appeal, which may dry up in the wake of a red wave but I think the race may still be close, since I don't think Kind has that many more votes to lose, even in the wake of a red wave. Iowa's 3rd is in southwest Iowa and includes some suburbs of Omaha, and Des Moines. It is now Iowa's bluest district, barely voting for Trump in 2020 and reelecting Rep. Cindy Axne (D) by 1.3%. While it might flip red, it will likely do so by less than 5%. IL-17, in northwest Illinois, might flip red - it's an Obama/Trump/Trump district that expanded Trump's margin from 2016 to 2020 and where Cheri Bustos (D) was elected by over 20% in 2016 but was reelected in 2020 by just 5%. PA-08 should flip, since it voted for Trump in 2020 and only narrowly reelected Matt Cartwright (D). ME-02 is prime Trump territory - a well-known Obama/Trump district that gave Trump his only electoral vote in the Northeast in 2020. It's the most Republican district with a Democratic representative, at R+6, so Jared Golden (D) should be a prime target for the GOP in 2022, and could very easily lose, and possibly by more than 5%, depending just how good 2022 is for the GOP. Because while 2022 will be a good GOP year, I think some of that might be dampened somewhat with Biden's popularity in the suburbs and January 6 as well as them supporting the Big Lie, so I think districts like TX-24 (which voted for Biden by 5% and has a representative who objected to electoral results in Congress) and CA-39 (which voted for Biden by double digits and has a GOP representative) could possibly even flip Democratic, though they'll likely stay in the red column. 

 Of course, this could all change, given the 2020 redistricting, and the districts could change dramatically. After the redistricting is completed, we'll all have a better idea of what seats are competitive, but I think the ones above are most likely to flip (plus some others). I don't think that 2022 will necessarily be a landslide GOP election like 2010 or 2014, given Biden's popularity in Trump/Biden states and counties, as well as January 6 and the GOP's persual to overturn the results of a democratic election because they lost.

[Mr.Phips]

Assuming it's a relatively normal midterm, it's probably not a seat that was super close in 2020 but it probably is a Biden district. Maybe something like WA-08 which was D+4% and Biden+7%, so Republicans need a good year for a narrow win there now.

WA-08 is a district that will very likely get more Dem in redistricting (by shedding the counties east of the Cascades).  This likely moves the district to around 56%-57% Biden and likely out of reach for Republicans.