Elliott County, KY

[Schiff for Senate]

Elliott County never voted for a Republican from its founding in 1869 until 2016. It gave Kerry 70% in 2004 and Obama 61% in 2008. But in 2012, it voted for him by just 2.5% (the worst performance ever for a Democrat in its history; it gave Walter Mondale over 73% and George McGovern over 65%). In 2016 it swung the hardest to the right in any county in the country - Obama still carried the county, but Clinton lost there, 70-26% - a 47 point shift to the right in just four years. In 2020, Trump carried the county by even more, garnering 75%. It's now a typical rural county, with 50-point margins of victory for the GOP. This has translated to GOP improvements down the ballot - Mitch McConnell had never carried Elliott County in any of his six senate campaigns (the only other such county was the rural Wolfe County, not far from Elliott), but won it by nearly 40% in 2020 (Wolfe County, by the way, also voted for him by a similar margin).  Hal Rogers (R), representative for KY-05 for over 30 years, never carried Elliott - until 2018. And voter registration has gone through the roof for the GOP in recent years here: 4.2% in November 2012 to 8.2% in October 2016 to 10.6% in April 2019. So, what do you think? Will the GOP train continue its rapid accelaration through Elliott County, speeden, slow down, stop or even reverse in the 2024 presidential election if Haley is the nominee and faces Harris?

[Calthrina950]

I expect for the Republican rise in Elliott County to continue for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't surprise me if Elliott County were voting 80% R a decade from now at the presidential level. The real test with regards to Elliott County's shift will be in 2023, when Andy Beshear is up for reelection. Beshear won Elliott County in 2019, on his way to a narrow statewide triumph over Matt Bevin. Every Kentucky Democratic nominee for statewide office that year won Elliott County. If Beshear and the other statewide Democrats lose Elliott, then that will provide confirmation that it's gone for the Democrats at all levels.

[Alben Barkley]

I think Beshear on the ticket and Haley being the GOP nominee could be enough to at least keep Trump’s margin from being surpassed, probably swing it back slightly towards the Dems, but we certainly won’t win it outright or even come close.

As Calthrina said, if Beshear can’t even win it in 2023 that would be an even more ominous sign that shows just how far gone it is.

[Schiff for Senate]

I expect for the Republican rise in Elliott County to continue for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't surprise me if Elliott County were voting 80% R a decade from now at the presidential level.

This assessment is correct:

I think Beshear on the ticket and Haley being the GOP nominee could be enough to at least keep Trump’s margin from being surpassed, probably swing it back slightly towards the Dems, but we certainly won’t win it outright or even come close.

While Trump's support has converted to a rise in GOP support/performance in Elliott County, I feel like he's the ultimate Republican for Elliott County voters. Elliott County voters like outsider, anti-establishment candidates who support the "little guy" (see https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/09/politics/elliott-county-kentucky-democratic-streak-broken-by-donald-trump/index.html), and Trump ran as that candidate. This, combined with Elliott County naturally reddening (69% for Kerry to 61% for Obama to 51% for Obama), partly because of the environmental issue (Elliott County is coal country), as well as conservative social values, led to his blowout victory there. I feel like while Haley would obviously win, she wouldn't go north of Trump's margin or possibly even 70%, in any scenario. Also, there is the fact that Beshear is from Kentucky, and carried Elliott County in 2019, as you yourself mentioned, which will likely boost the Harris/Beshear ticket. So I think it would probably give the GOP anywhere from the low- to mid-sixties. As far as other candidates go, sure, they might meet Trump's performance in Elliott, but they wouldn't exceed it, or at least not until some kind of landslide or until the GOP nominates a Kentuckian, like Rand Paul, for the presidency or makes a Kentuckian the VP nominee.

[Chips]

I expect for the Republican rise in Elliott County to continue for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't surprise me if Elliott County were voting 80% R a decade from now at the presidential level. The real test with regards to Elliott County's shift will be in 2023, when Andy Beshear is up for reelection. Beshear won Elliott County in 2019, on his way to a narrow statewide triumph over Matt Bevin. Every Kentucky Democratic nominee for statewide office that year won Elliott County. If Beshear and the other statewide Democrats lose Elliott, then that will provide confirmation that it's gone for the Democrats at all levels.

Yeah, pretty much.