If Maine, Vermont, Minnesota and Washington State became Canadian provinces

[King of Kensington]

How would they vote?  What would the parliamentary representation look like?

[mileslunn]

Maine would probably vote Tory provincially, but federally swing.  Would have been solid PC pre-merger but more mixed post merger.  Vermont would be big time Liberal.  Washington state would have a strong East/West divide with Tories winning big in Eastern half, but Western half going mostly Liberal and Seattle probably NDP.  Tories would win some rural Western Washington areas and some Seattle suburbs depending on leader.  Probably vote a lot like BC.  Minnesota would go Conservative like Manitoba usually does but not blowouts.  Minneapolis-St. Paul would go Liberal, suburbs bellwethers while rest of state outside Iron Range would go Conservative.  Iron Range would have gone NDP/Liberal around 2000, but probably Conservative today. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Minnestota might be more NDP-friendly than many US states because of the Farmer Labor thing?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Very interesting question. Agree that Maine would have a strong Tory presence, though I can imagine some NDP support in the more industrial areas like Androscoggin County, or the St John Valley. Plus support for the Liberals on Mount Desert Island and in Portland, maybe Tory support down towards Kennebunkport? Overall I can imagine it quite competitive.

Vermont is interesting. Historically, it would have been ultra-safe for the Tories I think. They would have held on longer than the GOP did; though supporting the PCs as opposed to Reform? The Tory base nowadays would be the Northeast Kingdom, plus Orange County. However, the rest of the state I guess would be Liberal, with some NDP support in Burlington or the particularly left-wing towns. Greens too I suppose.

Minnesota would, historically at least, have a good NDP base due to industry and unionisation. This might affect current politics and make it relatively stronger for the NDP than the Liberals, plus NDP support in central Minneapolis. Suburban Minneapolis Tory-turned-Liberal? Exurban Minneapolis would be the Tory base, though I can see them improving in the rest of the state in recent decades. The strength of the NDP could help split the left-leaning vote and, like Maine, make it very competitive.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would think that the NDP would do quite well in Vermont because of Bernie Sanders. After being mayor of Vermont, perhaps he becomes an MP. Maybe he learns French, and becomes federal party leader. The party wins all (or almost all) of Vermont's ridings on his coattails. The provincial party does well as a result too. I'm thinking it would be similar to the NDP in Nova Scotia, which benefited from Alexa McDonough as being leader.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think Minnesota would have minimal liberal presecence being split between the NDP and Conservative pronvicanly but probably safe conservative Federally with 2 NDP ridings. Remember the DFL is a merger of the Farmers and Labour party  withe dems, with the dems being the smaller part of the state merger.

[King of Kensington]

Canadian constituencies on average have about 100,000 residents.  So parliamentary representation would look something like this:

Washington  76
Minnesota  56
Maine  13
Vermont  6

[Tintrlvr]

Canadian constituencies on average have about 100,000 residents.  So parliamentary representation would look something like this:

Washington  76
Minnesota  56
Maine  13
Vermont  6

Well, except it depends on history, doesn't it? If they were provinces from the beginning, you'd reach a different result. Maine and Vermont had much higher populations, relatively speaking, in the past, so they'd be overrepresented in the same way the Maritimes are, whereas Washington and Minnesota would probably be more like BC/Alberta/Ontario in being underrepresented.

May try to do a map and guess representation based on this allocation, though.

[King of Kensington]

Dropping the threshold to 75,000 for Maine and Vermont would get 17 and 8 seats, respectively, based on 2010 US census (2021 census riding redistribution in Canada hasn't occurred yet).

[King of Kensington]

And at 105,000 per district (in line with Ontario/BC), Washington gets 56 and Minnesota gets 47, based on 2010s distribution.

[King of Kensington]

Among the major cities, Seattle should get 6 seats.  Minneapolis would get 3-4 and St. Paul 2 or 3 (some would be shared with nearby suburbs).

I'm guessing Seattle and Minneapolis proper would be a mix of Liberal and NDP, depending on the election.  Suburbs mostly Liberal (though maybe the polyglot south King County suburbs could go NDP as well, just as the NDP has strength in Burnaby, New Westminster and sometimes Surrey BC).