Nevada changes from caucus to primary for presidential elections

[MarkD]

Watch as Iowa and New Hampshire move at least a month earlier.

Yep, NH is going to end up being the first Tuesday after Jan 1 to preempt everyone else.  

It's because of the fact that I can foresee an eventual NH primary in December of the odd-numbered year before leap year that I have long been speaking out about the idea that we need to adopt a constitutional amendment that establishes a national schedule for when states can hold presidential primaries or caucuses. I have posted this idea several times before in this board, and I might as well post it again now.

Prohibit any state from holding a presidential primary or caucus before April 1 (of leap year).
Allow the smallest states, which have just 3 or 4 electoral college votes, to hold primaries in April. This would mean Alaska, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming could all choose any date in April for their primaries/caucuses. (The amendment would probably also stipulate that the New Hampshire law that says their state must be first in the nation would be void.)

Allow the medium-sized states, which have 5 to 11 electoral college votes, to hold primaries/caucuses in May. The states which could do so would be Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin. These states could choose any date in May for when to hold their primaries or caucuses.

Make all of the largest states wait until June to hold their primaries or caucuses. That would include California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. Again, these states could choose any date in June. The majority of delegates to the national conventions would not be selected until June.

With our current system, the nominations are usually already assured by March, and we have to wait an agonizing amount of time until the conventions are held.

[MarkD]

An interesting idea, but a concern I'd have with this approach is that having all of the smaller states go first means that the early primary states will be less representative of the nation's demographics (and especially the diverse Democratic coalition). Only DE and DC have sizable black populations, few if any of those states have sizable Hispanic populations, several of them are very rural and the majority have above-average household incomes. Even if the vast majority of delegates is decided later, a candidate doing well in these small early states could cement them as a front-runner before larger and more diverse states get to weigh in - which is somewhat similar to the problem we have now where IA and NH are so important from a media coverage standpoint.

An idea that I've been considering is having a rotational system: have regions or state clusters go together and either rotate the order every election cycle. The benefits would be that no states are continually of outsized importance, and the system could be fine-tuned to balance different constituencies and potential issues.

Either way, I hope something is done to settle this early-state turf war. Our election cycle is already too long and everyone trying to sidestep NH is just escalating the problem.

How about this idea?

First of all, I forgot all of the other U.S. Territories: American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. We need to mention them too.

Here's my new idea for a constitutional amendment. First, exactly the same as my original idea, prohibit any state from holding a presidential primary or caucus before April 1 (of leap year).

Next, delegate to Congress the responsibility of creating the schedule for when each state/territory shall hold its presidential primary or caucus, dividing the primary season into nine weeks -- the first full week of April, the second full week of April, the third full week of April, the first full week of May, the second full week of May, the third full week of May, the first full week of June, the second full week of June, and the third full week of June. Once the schedule is created, then Congress submits to each respective state/territory which week they shall hold their primary or caucus. Then each legislature thereof must choose whether their state/territory shall have a primary or caucus, and which day of the week they will hold it.

Congress must follow these guidelines: compile a list of all states and territories, ranked according to population, and divide the list into three approximately equal groups of the smallest, the medium, and the largest states/territories. For the first full week of April, Congress must schedule four of the smallest states/territories, one medium state or territory, and one large state. The same should be scheduled for the second full week, and for the third full week, four small states/territories, two medium states/territories, and one large state. Congress must ensure there is racial diversity in the selection of which states/territories shall be scheduled for each week of April. All remaining small states/territories must be scheduled for the first and second weeks of May. The third week of June must be made up entirely of large states.

Every four years, when Congress re-schedules the states/territories for the primary season, they must schedule different states/territories for each respective week than the last schedule.