POLL: AZ SEN: Which Mark wins? Kelly or Brnovich

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I don’t buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.

Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I don’t buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.

Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.

First of all, this "16-point difference" is based solely on two surveys. Second, even if we consider it representative of the current state of those races in general (we shouldn’t, especially given how unreliable the industry in general has become, but I’ll entertain the idea), mere partisanship/PVI will erase most of this difference after the campaign moves into full swing. Was Evan Bayh far more likely to win his race than Maggie Hassan because of the "20- to 30-point difference" in his favor in the polling of IN-SEN and NH-SEN in July 2016? Obviously not, even though you had several people arguing exactly that (and promoting the nonsensical notion that Ayotte could win but that Democrats would still flip the Senate or whatever).

As for your other arguments, again, the R primary electorate is decidedly conservative in pretty much every swing state (don’t see you applying the same argument to your NC-SEN analysis), Hassan is an incumbent as well, Nelson was an astronaut and still lost in a D wave year (can’t believe I’m actually typing this), and there’s no shortage of veterans who have been defeated in Congressional races.

Democrats are in for a world of hurt nationally if they’re losing a federal race in a D-trending Biden +7 state that just reelected its D Senator by 17 points, regardless of the Republican's "candidate quality."

Jeez. The Indiana comparison is wrong. Bayh is wasn't an incumbent and Indiana is much more right-leaning. Bayh still outperformed Clinton by 5 points. As for 'veterans have lost congressional races before' yeah obviously (can't believe I'm actually typing this) due to sheer numbers but it is nonetheless a benefit. AZ has a large veteran community and with Trump's comments the demographic has gotten to have a bit more swing voters.

Kelly has the following advantages compared to Bayh:
-Incumbent
-Married to popular person in the state (Giffords)
-Politically similar to the state's overall lean.
-Veteran.
-State is shifting to be more liberal and moderate.
-Establishment support, which includes large amounts of money that will likely be spent to hold the seat.
-AZ GOP is far, far right.
-Partisan and visible ballot audit (makes AZ GOP look stupid in the eyes of the moderate voters who dominate suburban areas like Scottsdale.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

MT Treasurer, the guy who thinks that Chris Sununu would win D.C. against Kamala Harris, is not the best with analogies, it would appear.

Comparing Heller with Kelly is wrong. Anyone who says that 2022 will be as much of a R year as 2018 was for the democrats has their head in the sand. Nevada's D lean then was more than AZ's R lean in 2022 will likely be. Considering Rosen only won a little over 50% of the vote, these factors could easily push Kelly over the top. I'm not saying Kelly is invincible, he's far from it, but as of now he's more likely to pull it off than not.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Gun to my head, it’s R wins for senate and governor, but the great educational realignment and midterms turnout/composition complicates my feelings toward what happens. I do think it’ll be exceptionally close for both races.

This is definitely a state where the moderate Rs will decide things, and I kinda have no clue where their headspace is — they’ve been voting D in fed races... the “fraudit” does not help steer them back into the fold.

Yeah, while I think the Trump not being President switches a few suburbanite Republicans back into the fold, people like Kelly could still keep their vote.