Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I don’t buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.
Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.
First of all, this "16-point difference" is based solely on two surveys. Second, even if we consider it representative of the current state of those races in general (we shouldn’t, especially given how unreliable the industry in general has become, but I’ll entertain the idea), mere partisanship/PVI will erase most of this difference after the campaign moves into full swing. Was Evan Bayh far more likely to win his race than Maggie Hassan because of the "20- to 30-point difference" in his favor in the polling of IN-SEN and NH-SEN in July 2016? Obviously not, even though you had several people arguing exactly that (and promoting the nonsensical notion that Ayotte could win but that Democrats would still flip the Senate or whatever).
As for your other arguments, again, the R primary electorate is decidedly conservative in pretty much every swing state (don’t see you applying the same argument to your NC-SEN analysis), Hassan is an incumbent as well, Nelson was an astronaut and still lost in a D wave year (can’t believe I’m actually typing this), and there’s no shortage of veterans who have been defeated in Congressional races.
Democrats are in for a world of hurt nationally if they’re losing a federal race in a D-trending Biden +7 state that just reelected its D Senator by 17 points, regardless of the Republican's "candidate quality."
Did you forget that Maine re-elected Susan Collins comfortably at literally the exact same time it elected Biden by about the same margin? AND that New Hampshire itself elected Sununu himself for governor by a large margin at literally the exact same time it elected Biden and Shaheen by large margins?
Clearly, the partisanship rules for those upper New England states aren’t so rigid. And don’t necessarily say that much about the national environment. And the comparison to f—king Indiana in 2016 is rather absurd.
And frankly, the dismissive and arrogant attitude you have towards all people who don’t think your analyses are as flawless as you think has gotten beyond old and annoying.
Poll
