POLL: AZ SEN: Which Mark wins? Kelly or Brnovich

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna win but Yee probably is the next Gov this stayed split votes for Ducey and Sinema in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna win, he along with Fetterman are blue dogs and are gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In order, from least vulnerable to most: Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire. I do think Brnovich will win.

Kelly is leading by 10 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly won in 2020 and we lost ME, even if we lose NH, he still wins, this is Trump's way to take back AZ that he lost last time, a twice impeached Prez who said Hillary was disqualified because Bill Clinton was impeached, the hypocrisy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT Treasurer believes its an R friendly Environment and we can have different races going different directs, Ryan, Jackson and Sununu can be in the Senate together and Craig def Whitmer and Nikki Fried and Laura Kelly and Hobbs can win Gubernatorial contests

Just like Baker and Hogan won last time and Brown and Sinema won too in 2018

Fried and CRIST are very wealthy and can beat DeSantis
But, Johnson will lose

WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME RS WON NPVI, 2016 5.5 YRS AGO, the Congressional PVI not the Prez PVI they lost that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but that’s not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.

I think you're kind of strawmanning here. No one is saying that Kelly is unbeatable or that he's overwhelmingly favored. I think a lot of people on here have the race as Tilt or Lean D. Tilt or Lean does not mean he's safe. He's clearly not. But since we don't know who the Republican nominee will be or what the environment will be like in November 2022, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a very slight favorite for now.

I’m not at all strawmanning, it’s pretty evident that many here consider Kelly overwhelmingly favored and believe that it would take an unusually strong Republican nominee to beat him (as opposed to just a generic R). I just wonder why people are so quick to give Kelly the benefit of the doubt but not Hassan — yes, Sununu will likely run in NH, but if you note the uncertainty in the national environment to justify rating AZ Lean D, it seems bizarre to then be this pessimistic about Hassan's electoral prospects (the combination of a decent environment for Democrats & federal partisanship would be enough to offset most/enough of Sununu's advantages in the realm of candidate quality in a Biden +7 state, so why not give her the benefit of the doubt as well?).

Unless AZ has truly gone the way of GA or NH undergoes a dramatic R trend between now and 2022, such a divergence is really hard to explain. I’m not ruling anything out, it just strikes me as a highly improbable (even if not impossible) scenario. I can see a case for rating NH Tilt R and AZ Tilt D (even then, I’m skeptical about Democrats holding AZ on a night when they’re losing NH), but rating NH Lean (or Likely) R and AZ Lean (or Likely) D is a far-fetched assessment.

The reason why Jeanne Shaheen has been able to win reoeadily in NH and Hassan may not win a second term Shaheen won multiple terms as Gov and Hassan only served 2 yrs as Gov from 2014/2016 and then she ran for the Senate

Hassan dug herself this hole, the state Legislature passed the Minimum wage a Sununu vetoed it, and Hassan made a silly vote to vote against minimium wage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Hasan and Whitmer, eventhough D's are in denial about MI, are both on the Endangered species list, both are six pts down and they are supposed to be up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but that’s not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.

I think you're kind of strawmanning here. No one is saying that Kelly is unbeatable or that he's overwhelmingly favored. I think a lot of people on here have the race as Tilt or Lean D. Tilt or Lean does not mean he's safe. He's clearly not. But since we don't know who the Republican nominee will be or what the environment will be like in November 2022, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a very slight favorite for now.

I’m not at all strawmanning, it’s pretty evident that many here consider Kelly overwhelmingly favored and believe that it would take an unusually strong Republican nominee to beat him (as opposed to just a generic R). I just wonder why people are so quick to give Kelly the benefit of the doubt but not Hassan — yes, Sununu will likely run in NH, but if you note the uncertainty in the national environment to justify rating AZ Lean D, it seems bizarre to then be this pessimistic about Hassan's electoral prospects (the combination of a decent environment for Democrats & federal partisanship would be enough to offset most/enough of Sununu's advantages in the realm of candidate quality in a Biden +7 state, so why not give her the benefit of the doubt as well?).

Unless AZ has truly gone the way of GA or NH undergoes a dramatic R trend between now and 2022, such a divergence is really hard to explain. I’m not ruling anything out, it just strikes me as a highly improbable (even if not impossible) scenario. I can see a case for rating NH Tilt R and AZ Tilt D (even then, I’m skeptical about Democrats holding AZ on a night when they’re losing NH), but rating NH Lean (or Likely) R and AZ Lean (or Likely) D is a far-fetched assessment.

You do know that Sununu won by 7 as Gov against Molly Kelly and D's easily won AZ Sinema and OH Brown won,, right in 2018, it's not out of the question that we can have states flip in both directions Ryan and Kelly winning at the same time Sununu wins in NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's lose either PA or AZ they won't win the Senate, they are blue dogs like Tester, Bullock was a blue dog but Gianforte won too big for him to catch up, that wont be the scenario in the AZ or PA Gov race, Hobbs will win AZ Gov and if Rs pull out give race it's gonna be close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D until we see indications that we are not in a neutral partisan environment.

A neutral partisan environment would not be good enough for Kelly to win against Brnovich.

Last poll had Kelly and Fetterman 10 pts ahead BLUE DOGS WIN, THE ONLY REASON WHY BULLOCK THE BLUE DOG LOST WAS GIANFORTE NOT BECAUSE OF WEAK DAINES, GIANFORTE IS THE ONLY ONE THAT CAN BEAT TESTER BUT HE IS GOV.
RYAN AND JACKSON ARE BLUE DOGS AND CAN WIN😄😄😄