POLL: AZ SEN: Which Mark wins? Kelly or Brnovich
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 22, 2021, 06:46:43 AM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  POLL: AZ SEN: Which Mark wins? Kelly or Brnovich
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Who wins this hypothetical matchup?
#1
Captain Mark Kelly
#2
Attorney Mark General Brnovich
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: POLL: AZ SEN: Which Mark wins? Kelly or Brnovich  (Read 813 times)
MargieCat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 767
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 10, 2021, 10:28:27 PM »
« edited: June 10, 2021, 10:55:14 PM by MargieCat »

I feel like Brnovich would be a strong opponent for Kelly.

I wouldn't be suprised if McConnell and Rick Scott put their thumb on the scale to try and get Brnovich the nomination.

But Trump is not a big fan.

If Brnovich does get the nomination, does he win?

Or does Mark Kelly hold on?
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,859
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2021, 10:49:29 PM »

(Tilt) Kelly, if Trump's recent barbs that've been directed toward Brnovich have anything to say about it.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,253
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2021, 11:05:14 PM »

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I donít buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.
Logged
Minnesota Mike
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,468


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2021, 12:30:40 AM »

No guarantee Brnovich is the Republican nominee. Trump has previously ripped him for insufficiently supportive of the wacky election theft conspiracies.

For the record Kelly likely wins re-election.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,648
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2021, 01:11:19 AM »

Kelly is gonna win but Yee probably is the next Gov this stayed split votes for Ducey and Sinema in 2018
Logged
Mitch O'Donnell, Mayor of Louisville
theflyingmongoose
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 555
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2021, 03:00:34 AM »

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I donít buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.

Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.
Logged
MATTROSE94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,188
Iran, Islamic Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2021, 08:01:45 AM »

Easily Mark Brnovich by around a 2% margin.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,949
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2021, 08:28:46 AM »

Easily Mark Brnovich by around a 2% margin.

These cannot be be describers of the same race.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,253
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2021, 09:48:23 AM »

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I donít buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.

Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.

First of all, this "16-point difference" is based solely on two surveys. Second, even if we consider it representative of the current state of those races in general (we shouldnít, especially given how unreliable the industry in general has become, but Iíll entertain the idea), mere partisanship/PVI will erase most of this difference after the campaign moves into full swing. Was Evan Bayh far more likely to win his race than Maggie Hassan because of the "20- to 30-point difference" in his favor in the polling of IN-SEN and NH-SEN in July 2016? Obviously not, even though you had several people arguing exactly that (and promoting the nonsensical notion that Ayotte could win but that Democrats would still flip the Senate or whatever).

As for your other arguments, again, the R primary electorate is decidedly conservative in pretty much every swing state (donít see you applying the same argument to your NC-SEN analysis), Hassan is an incumbent as well, Nelson was an astronaut and still lost in a D wave year (canít believe Iím actually typing this), and thereís no shortage of veterans who have been defeated in Congressional races.

Democrats are in for a world of hurt nationally if theyíre losing a federal race in a D-trending Biden +7 state that just reelected its D Senator by 17 points, regardless of the Republican's "candidate quality."
Logged
SnowLabrador
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,302
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2021, 10:07:13 AM »

In order, from least vulnerable to most: Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire. I do think Brnovich will win.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,912
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2021, 11:14:31 AM »

Tilt Brnovich. It's possible that Kelly wins, but I think that would say more about the direction that AZ is heading than Kelly as a candidate.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,648
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2021, 11:21:09 AM »

Kelly is gonna win, he along with Fetterman are blue dogs and are gonna win
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,275
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2021, 11:27:26 AM »
« Edited: June 11, 2021, 11:32:19 AM by Alben Barkley »

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I donít buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.

Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.

First of all, this "16-point difference" is based solely on two surveys. Second, even if we consider it representative of the current state of those races in general (we shouldnít, especially given how unreliable the industry in general has become, but Iíll entertain the idea), mere partisanship/PVI will erase most of this difference after the campaign moves into full swing. Was Evan Bayh far more likely to win his race than Maggie Hassan because of the "20- to 30-point difference" in his favor in the polling of IN-SEN and NH-SEN in July 2016? Obviously not, even though you had several people arguing exactly that (and promoting the nonsensical notion that Ayotte could win but that Democrats would still flip the Senate or whatever).

As for your other arguments, again, the R primary electorate is decidedly conservative in pretty much every swing state (donít see you applying the same argument to your NC-SEN analysis), Hassan is an incumbent as well, Nelson was an astronaut and still lost in a D wave year (canít believe Iím actually typing this), and thereís no shortage of veterans who have been defeated in Congressional races.

Democrats are in for a world of hurt nationally if theyíre losing a federal race in a D-trending Biden +7 state that just reelected its D Senator by 17 points, regardless of the Republican's "candidate quality."

Did you forget that Maine re-elected Susan Collins comfortably at literally the exact same time it elected Biden by about the same margin? AND that New Hampshire itself elected Sununu himself for governor by a large margin at literally the exact same time it elected Biden and Shaheen by large margins?

Clearly, the partisanship rules for those upper New England states arenít so rigid. And donít necessarily say that much about the national environment. And the comparison to fóking Indiana in 2016 is rather absurd.

And frankly, the dismissive and arrogant attitude you have towards all people who donít think your analyses are as flawless as you think has gotten beyond old and annoying.
Logged
LVScreenssuck
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,687


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2021, 02:41:14 PM »

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r
Logged
CookieDamage
cookiedamage
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,187


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2021, 02:45:36 PM »

Tilt/Lean D. Kelly is a strong candidate
Logged
Mitch O'Donnell, Mayor of Louisville
theflyingmongoose
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 555
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2021, 04:23:44 PM »

Depends on the overall environment, turnout patterns, Biden approval numbers, and extent of DEM/GOP-friendly trends canceling each other out (sane), but I donít buy this meme that Kelly is some godlike juggernaut who would be immensely difficult to dislodge even in a neutral year. I maintain that this is the most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats, with or without Brnovich. Tilt R.

Presently, NH with Sununu is more vulnerable. The 16 point polling difference between the two is just so much that it can't be MOE. It's not that Kelly is a godlike juggernaut, rather he's just a good candidate (veteran, astronaut, moderate reputation) and an incumbent. The bigger part is that the AZ R primary electorate is far right for a swing state, which means that the best candidate to win might not get through a primary.

First of all, this "16-point difference" is based solely on two surveys. Second, even if we consider it representative of the current state of those races in general (we shouldnít, especially given how unreliable the industry in general has become, but Iíll entertain the idea), mere partisanship/PVI will erase most of this difference after the campaign moves into full swing. Was Evan Bayh far more likely to win his race than Maggie Hassan because of the "20- to 30-point difference" in his favor in the polling of IN-SEN and NH-SEN in July 2016? Obviously not, even though you had several people arguing exactly that (and promoting the nonsensical notion that Ayotte could win but that Democrats would still flip the Senate or whatever).

As for your other arguments, again, the R primary electorate is decidedly conservative in pretty much every swing state (donít see you applying the same argument to your NC-SEN analysis), Hassan is an incumbent as well, Nelson was an astronaut and still lost in a D wave year (canít believe Iím actually typing this), and thereís no shortage of veterans who have been defeated in Congressional races.

Democrats are in for a world of hurt nationally if theyíre losing a federal race in a D-trending Biden +7 state that just reelected its D Senator by 17 points, regardless of the Republican's "candidate quality."

Jeez. The Indiana comparison is wrong. Bayh is wasn't an incumbent and Indiana is much more right-leaning. Bayh still outperformed Clinton by 5 points. As for 'veterans have lost congressional races before' yeah obviously (can't believe I'm actually typing this) due to sheer numbers but it is nonetheless a benefit. AZ has a large veteran community and with Trump's comments the demographic has gotten to have a bit more swing voters.

Kelly has the following advantages compared to Bayh:
-Incumbent
-Married to popular person in the state (Giffords)
-Politically similar to the state's overall lean.
-Veteran.
-State is shifting to be more liberal and moderate.
-Establishment support, which includes large amounts of money that will likely be spent to hold the seat.
-AZ GOP is far, far right.
-Partisan and visible ballot audit (makes AZ GOP look stupid in the eyes of the moderate voters who dominate suburban areas like Scottsdale.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,362
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2021, 05:15:05 PM »

It's a tossup, assuming Brnovich even gets nominated and doesn't face backlash for not being a Trump toady with the state's presidential election results. I'm not as bearish on Arizona as many others seem to have turned since 2020, and it's probably due to being more bearish about the state last year and having my expectations grounded for it.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,648
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2021, 05:15:55 PM »

In order, from least vulnerable to most: Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire. I do think Brnovich will win.

Kelly is leading by 10 pts
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,253
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2021, 05:24:52 PM »

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldnít be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but thatís not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.
Logged
Roll Roons
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,435
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2021, 05:48:39 PM »

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but that’s not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.

I think you're kind of strawmanning here. No one is saying that Kelly is unbeatable or that he's overwhelmingly favored. I think a lot of people on here have the race as Tilt or Lean D. Tilt or Lean does not mean he's safe. He's clearly not. But since we don't know who the Republican nominee will be or what the environment will be like in November 2022, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a very slight favorite for now.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,648
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2021, 05:50:51 PM »

Kelly won in 2020 and we lost ME, even if we lose NH, he still wins, this is Trump's way to take back AZ that he lost last time, a twice impeached Prez who said Hillary was disqualified because Bill Clinton was impeached, the hypocrisy
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,276


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 11, 2021, 05:53:37 PM »

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

He held on in 2018. Ancestral Republicans are somewhat more accustomed to voting for him than they would be for a fresh face, and that makes him an ok candidate to resist trends. Not necessarily much better than generic R, but better than most of the current competition and Biggs.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,648
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 11, 2021, 05:54:50 PM »

MT Treasurer believes its an R friendly Environment and we can have different races going different directs, Ryan, Jackson and Sununu can be in the Senate together and Craig def Whitmer and Nikki Fried and Laura Kelly and Hobbs can win Gubernatorial contests

Just like Baker and Hogan won last time and Brown and Sinema won too in 2018

Fried and CRIST are very wealthy and can beat DeSantis
But, Johnson will lose

WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME RS WON NPVI, 2016 5.5 YRS AGO, the Congressional PVI not the Prez PVI they lost that
Logged
Mitch O'Donnell, Mayor of Louisville
theflyingmongoose
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 555
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 11, 2021, 06:13:36 PM »

MT Treasurer, the guy who thinks that Chris Sununu would win D.C. against Kamala Harris, is not the best with analogies, it would appear.

Comparing Heller with Kelly is wrong. Anyone who says that 2022 will be as much of a R year as 2018 was for the democrats has their head in the sand. Nevada's D lean then was more than AZ's R lean in 2022 will likely be. Considering Rosen only won a little over 50% of the vote, these factors could easily push Kelly over the top. I'm not saying Kelly is invincible, he's far from it, but as of now he's more likely to pull it off than not.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,253
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 11, 2021, 06:22:11 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2021, 06:29:20 PM by MT Treasurer »

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldnít be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but thatís not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.

I think you're kind of strawmanning here. No one is saying that Kelly is unbeatable or that he's overwhelmingly favored. I think a lot of people on here have the race as Tilt or Lean D. Tilt or Lean does not mean he's safe. He's clearly not. But since we don't know who the Republican nominee will be or what the environment will be like in November 2022, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a very slight favorite for now.

Iím not at all strawmanning, itís pretty evident that many here consider Kelly overwhelmingly favored and believe that it would take an unusually strong Republican nominee to beat him (as opposed to just a generic R). I just wonder why people are so quick to give Kelly the benefit of the doubt but not Hassan ó yes, Sununu will likely run in NH, but if you note the uncertainty in the national environment to justify rating AZ Lean D, it seems bizarre to then be this pessimistic about Hassan's electoral prospects (the combination of a decent environment for Democrats & federal partisanship would be enough to offset most/enough of Sununu's advantages in the realm of candidate quality in a Biden +7 state, so why not give her the benefit of the doubt as well?).

Unless AZ has truly gone the way of GA or NH undergoes a dramatic R trend between now and 2022, such a divergence is really hard to explain. Iím not ruling anything out, it just strikes me as a highly improbable (even if not impossible) scenario. I can see a case for rating NH Tilt R and AZ Tilt D (even then, Iím skeptical about Democrats holding AZ on a night when theyíre losing NH), but rating NH Lean (or Likely) R and AZ Lean (or Likely) D is a far-fetched assessment.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 15 queries.