POLL: AZ SEN: Which Mark wins? Kelly or Brnovich

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but that’s not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.

I think you're kind of strawmanning here. No one is saying that Kelly is unbeatable or that he's overwhelmingly favored. I think a lot of people on here have the race as Tilt or Lean D. Tilt or Lean does not mean he's safe. He's clearly not. But since we don't know who the Republican nominee will be or what the environment will be like in November 2022, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a very slight favorite for now.

I’m not at all strawmanning, it’s pretty evident that many here consider Kelly overwhelmingly favored and believe that it would take an unusually strong Republican nominee to beat him (as opposed to just a generic R). I just wonder why people are so quick to give Kelly the benefit of the doubt but not Hassan — yes, Sununu will likely run in NH, but if you note the uncertainty in the national environment to justify rating AZ Lean D, it seems bizarre to then be this pessimistic about Hassan's electoral prospects (the combination of a decent environment for Democrats & federal partisanship would be enough to offset most/enough of Sununu's advantages in the realm of candidate quality in a Biden +7 state, so why not give her the benefit of the doubt as well?).

Unless AZ has truly gone the way of GA or NH undergoes a dramatic R trend between now and 2022, such a divergence is really hard to explain. I’m not ruling anything out, it just strikes me as a highly improbable (even if not impossible) scenario. I can see a case for rating NH Tilt R and AZ Tilt D (even then, I’m skeptical about Democrats holding AZ on a night when they’re losing NH), but rating NH Lean (or Likely) R and AZ Lean (or Likely) D is a far-fetched assessment.

The reason why Jeanne Shaheen has been able to win reoeadily in NH and Hassan may not win a second term Shaheen won multiple terms as Gov and Hassan only served 2 yrs as Gov from 2014/2016 and then she ran for the Senate

Hassan dug herself this hole, the state Legislature passed the Minimum wage a Sununu vetoed it, and Hassan made a silly vote to vote against minimium wage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Hasan and Whitmer, eventhough D's are in denial about MI, are both on the Endangered species list, both are six pts down and they are supposed to be up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see why people are treating Brnovich as Atlas meme Ron Desantis.
Dude is nothing special, pretty much just generic r

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment. The consensus here is eerily reminiscent of the NV-SEN 2018 analysis (but with the parties reversed), when this forum was missing the forest for the trees by getting carried away by the candidate qualities of the various Democrats & Jacky Rosen's campaign decisions while not realizing that Heller was for all intents and purposes DOA against any Democrat not named Shelley Berkley (and even then...). Kelly might be in a better position than Heller, but that’s not saying much, and the votes are there for the GOP to flip the seat.

I think you're kind of strawmanning here. No one is saying that Kelly is unbeatable or that he's overwhelmingly favored. I think a lot of people on here have the race as Tilt or Lean D. Tilt or Lean does not mean he's safe. He's clearly not. But since we don't know who the Republican nominee will be or what the environment will be like in November 2022, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a very slight favorite for now.

I’m not at all strawmanning, it’s pretty evident that many here consider Kelly overwhelmingly favored and believe that it would take an unusually strong Republican nominee to beat him (as opposed to just a generic R). I just wonder why people are so quick to give Kelly the benefit of the doubt but not Hassan — yes, Sununu will likely run in NH, but if you note the uncertainty in the national environment to justify rating AZ Lean D, it seems bizarre to then be this pessimistic about Hassan's electoral prospects (the combination of a decent environment for Democrats & federal partisanship would be enough to offset most/enough of Sununu's advantages in the realm of candidate quality in a Biden +7 state, so why not give her the benefit of the doubt as well?).

Unless AZ has truly gone the way of GA or NH undergoes a dramatic R trend between now and 2022, such a divergence is really hard to explain. I’m not ruling anything out, it just strikes me as a highly improbable (even if not impossible) scenario. I can see a case for rating NH Tilt R and AZ Tilt D (even then, I’m skeptical about Democrats holding AZ on a night when they’re losing NH), but rating NH Lean (or Likely) R and AZ Lean (or Likely) D is a far-fetched assessment.

You do know that Sununu won by 7 as Gov against Molly Kelly and D's easily won AZ Sinema and OH Brown won,, right in 2018, it's not out of the question that we can have states flip in both directions Ryan and Kelly winning at the same time Sununu wins in NH

[xavier110]

Gun to my head, it’s R wins for senate and governor, but the great educational realignment and midterms turnout/composition complicates my feelings toward what happens. I do think it’ll be exceptionally close for both races.

This is definitely a state where the moderate Rs will decide things, and I kinda have no clue where their headspace is — they’ve been voting D in fed races... the “fraudit” does not help steer them back into the fold.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Gun to my head, it’s R wins for senate and governor, but the great educational realignment and midterms turnout/composition complicates my feelings toward what happens. I do think it’ll be exceptionally close for both races.

This is definitely a state where the moderate Rs will decide things, and I kinda have no clue where their headspace is — they’ve been voting D in fed races... the “fraudit” does not help steer them back into the fold.

Yeah, while I think the Trump not being President switches a few suburbanite Republicans back into the fold, people like Kelly could still keep their vote.

[Calthrina950]

As of right now, this race is a tossup. If I were forced to say who would win, it would be Brnovich, who will probably be benefited by the national environment and who is the kind of Republican candidate that could win back enough moderate suburbanites to prevail here.

However, as has been noted on here, it is uncertain that he will be the Republican nominee, given how hardline much of the Arizona Republican Party is, and the attacks which he's received from Trump for not abetting his conspiracy theories about the election. I do agree with MT Treasurer that Arizona is in greater jeopardy of flipping than New Hampshire is-although neither state can be taken for granted. Kelly does have strengths (i.e. "the Giffords factor", his perceived moderate reputation, incumbency, party support) that could be of aid to him, and I think that if the Republican nominee is someone like Gosar, Biggs, Lesko, Schweikert, or Ward, Kelly would win.

[NYDem]

The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment.

At this point I’m convinced that you’re literally incapable of describing an opinion you disagree with without strawmanning it.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=426793.0 <——— A majority of Atlas calls the race “Tossup”
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=429748.0 <——— Atlas calls the race “Lean D”

Atlas does not think Republicans need a huge wave to win AZ against Mark Kelly. If they’re calling it a tossup (or god forbid, a lean D) race, then they are in fact saying that Republicans have good chances of winning.

[UWS]

It might depend on the border crisis. If it goes better, it benefits Kelly. If it gets worse, Brnovich may win this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's lose either PA or AZ they won't win the Senate, they are blue dogs like Tester, Bullock was a blue dog but Gianforte won too big for him to catch up, that wont be the scenario in the AZ or PA Gov race, Hobbs will win AZ Gov and if Rs pull out give race it's gonna be close

[MATTROSE94]

If D's lose either PA or AZ they won't win the Senate, they are blue dogs like Tester, Bullock was a blue dog but Gianforte won too big for him to catch up, that wont be the scenario in the AZ or PA Gov race, Hobbs will win AZ Gov and if Rs pull out give race it's gonna be close

I agree 100% with this post.

[sting in the rafters]

Lean D until we see indications that we are not in a neutral partisan environment.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean D until we see indications that we are not in a neutral partisan environment.

A neutral partisan environment would not be good enough for Kelly to win against Brnovich.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D until we see indications that we are not in a neutral partisan environment.

A neutral partisan environment would not be good enough for Kelly to win against Brnovich.

Last poll had Kelly and Fetterman 10 pts ahead BLUE DOGS WIN, THE ONLY REASON WHY BULLOCK THE BLUE DOG LOST WAS GIANFORTE NOT BECAUSE OF WEAK DAINES, GIANFORTE IS THE ONLY ONE THAT CAN BEAT TESTER BUT HE IS GOV.
RYAN AND JACKSON ARE BLUE DOGS AND CAN WIN😄😄😄

[sting in the rafters]

Lean D until we see indications that we are not in a neutral partisan environment.

A neutral partisan environment would not be good enough for Kelly to win against Brnovich.

Why not? That'd basically mean he'd lose despite a NPV of ~D+3-4. Sure he could bleed some independent/moderate support however you'd think that would be reflected at least somewhat nationally. I have this Lean D for the same reason I have WI Lean R, when in doubt I feel the incumbent in a swing state is the slight favorite until they show why they shouldn't be or the national environment is favoring a party. To say anything more right now would be too much speculation for my blood. Don't know enough about Brinovich as a candidate aside from the court case and he's won 2x by pretty standard margins. 

Now an even, D+1, or maybe D+2 NPV? Yeah Brnovich probably has that one.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Tilt D for now, but Kelly is probably the first Democratic incumbent to lose if Sununu doesn’t run.

[Vosem]

Voted Kelly even though I'm pretty confident he loses the general election at the current environment (much less that of November 2022), because I don't think Brnovich is particularly likely to be the GOP nominee. Kelly personally is a much likelier winner, even if I think (R) is likelier than (D).

[I’m not Stu]

Brnovich is a big cheater.

[Lognog]

Brnovich is a big cheater.

elaborate

[I’m not Stu]

Brnovich is a big cheater.

elaborate

He has a SCOTUS case involving the VRA.

[Lognog]

Brnovich is a big cheater.

elaborate

He has a SCOTUS case involving the VRA.

what is he arguing and how does that make him a cheater

[I’m not Stu]

Brnovich is a big cheater.

elaborate

He has a SCOTUS case involving the VRA.

what is he arguing and how does that make him a cheater

The scope of section 2. Narrowing the scope would make it easier for Brnovich to beat Kelly.