Would a GOP incumbent in MI-SEN have won in 2020?
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  Would a GOP incumbent in MI-SEN have won in 2020?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Would a Republican incumbent in Michigan's senate race have been re-elected in 2020?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Would a GOP incumbent in MI-SEN have won in 2020?  (Read 434 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: June 25, 2021, 01:19:30 PM »
Would a Republican incumbent in Michigan have won a Senate race in 2020?
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2021, 01:21:24 PM »
Looking back at the actual 2020 results there, I would have given that individual a 1-in-3 chance of winning in 2020.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2021, 01:34:44 PM »
Gun to my head, yes.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2021, 01:42:12 PM »
Definitely.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2021, 02:25:56 PM »
Only if Rick Snyder had chosen to run for Senate in 2014, won that race and then was the incumbent in 2020.

I think another incumbent loses to someone like Slotkin or possibly Kildee.
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beesley
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2021, 02:41:19 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2021, 03:00:45 PM by beesley »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on June 25, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Only if Rick Snyder had chosen to run for Senate in 2014, won that race and then was the incumbent in 2020.

I think another incumbent loses to someone like Slotkin or possibly Kildee.

Doubt it, considering it was announced that criminal charges would be filed against him in early 2020. But I agree with your broader point, it would be the Tossup race of the cycle, moreso than NC.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2021, 02:55:20 PM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on June 25, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Only if Rick Snyder had chosen to run for Senate in 2014, won that race and then was the incumbent in 2020.

I think another incumbent loses to someone like Slotkin or possibly Kildee.

Wasn't the Flint crisis in his second term?
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beesley
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2021, 03:02:34 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on June 25, 2021, 02:55:20 PM
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on June 25, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Only if Rick Snyder had chosen to run for Senate in 2014, won that race and then was the incumbent in 2020.

I think another incumbent loses to someone like Slotkin or possibly Kildee.

Wasn't the Flint crisis in his second term?

It gained prominence in his second term but the crisis begun in his first.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2021, 03:22:25 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 03:34:29 PM by CentristRepublican »
Total tossup, possibly tilt R.
On the other hand Biden won by a decentish 2.78%, which I think might be enough for Democrats to flip the seat, provided they have a strong candidate (Slotkin?).
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sting in the rafters
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2021, 05:23:32 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2021, 06:12:33 PM by The Swayze Train »
Perhaps, though an incumbent R could potentially have had the effect of pumping Democratic enthusiasm. The large drop-off between Biden and Peters's margins was partially because many votes for president left their ballot for Senate blank.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2021, 08:54:56 PM »
It would be extremely competitive, but I think Dems would flip it by 10,000 votes or less.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2021, 08:21:24 AM »
Honestly, it depends on the incumbent and the Democratic nominee, as well as the strength of their campaigns. 
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andjey
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2021, 09:25:46 AM »
Quote from: Bibi Be Gone on June 26, 2021, 08:21:24 AM
Honestly, it depends on the incumbent and the Democratic nominee, as well as the strength of their campaigns. 
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