sting in the rafters
slimey56
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,495
Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30
|
 |
« on: June 11, 2021, 07:40:21 PM » |
|
|
« edited: June 11, 2021, 07:46:42 PM by 215 till I die »
|
Is there any reason to believe DeSantis outside of Florida is anything different from generic R?
To compare to the prior few GOP nominees I'd go
In the Rust Belt:
Trump '16>Trump '20>DeSantis '24>Romney '12
In the Sun Belt:
Romney '12>Trump '16>DeSantis '24>Trump '20
In FL:
DeSantis'24>Trump'20>Trump'16>Romney'12
Please note this is not a prediction of margin but rather a ranking of each candidate's strengths
DeSantis would win back some never-Trumpers. This could go a long way in the more conservative-leaning suburbs of Sun Belt swing states (TX, FL, AZ, maybe GA as a decent amount of country club Republicans still exist despite the demographic trends). However the issue any GOP candidate would have is they would actively have to make a case to these voters. Similar to how Trump solidified his support with exurban whites who might've initially been on the fence about him in '16, inertia favors Biden keeping his gains in inner suburbs.
Could also see his past as a Tea Party conservative hurting him in the northern swing states. He doesn't have some of Trump's more egregious weaknesses, but he also lacks his core strengths.
|
