Is DeSantis a stronger candidate then Trump was in 16 or 20
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  Is DeSantis a stronger candidate then Trump was in 16 or 20
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Author Topic: Is DeSantis a stronger candidate then Trump was in 16 or 20  (Read 1022 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: June 10, 2021, 10:02:36 PM »

I’d say so as he’d probably able to have Trump’s appeal in the Midwest plus have the appeal of  downballot republicans in the sunbelt meaning I think he definitely wins
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MarkD
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2021, 10:23:41 PM »

He's not as crazy as Trump, so that's a plus in his favor.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2021, 10:40:55 PM »

I'm of the opinion that his general hostility & prickliness - which is something that those of us here in FL are already well aware of & which will inevitably be further revealed to the rest of the country on the back of the perpetual focus from media attention that presidential prospects receive as they seek to conduct a presidential campaign - wouldn't enable him to pass the beer test against Biden in the same way that Trump did against Hillary & that Biden did against Trump, so no.
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Pericles
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2021, 11:39:27 PM »

You're getting a bit ahead of yourself for someone who won Florida by 3 points less than Trump. We simply don't know much about 2024 or DeSantis.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2021, 12:34:35 AM »

Impossible to say at this point.

By every objective measure, Trump was and is an AWFUL candidate, but somehow he inspired an unhealthy devotion in his followers never before seen in a liberal democracy.

DeSantis looks good on paper, but we have seen PLENTY of candidates in the past that looked good on paper, absolutely bomb in the primaries. Need I mention people like Marco Rubio 2016, Scott Walker 2016, Rudy Guiliani 2008 or even current VP Kamala Harris 2020?
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2021, 01:03:05 AM »

DeSantis isn't winning PA, WI or MI with Bob Casey, Stabenow and Baldwin in ballot and Sinema is wave insurance for Baldwin in case Baldwin has a tough race, that's 291/247 EC votes minus GA

Also Covid is probably over in 2024/ meaning if D's lose the H, Biden will get credit and D's can win the H back in either 2024/2026, even if Biden is Reelected
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MargieCat
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2021, 02:59:36 AM »

I don't know why people assume he'd magically carry the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania meanwhile resurrecting the old Romney sun belt coalition.

Truth is, he might end up doing neither.

He is less likable than Trump and wouldn't hit the rural numbers. I also don't think he'd improve in the suburbs because his attitude is similar to Trump's. Suburbanites that were disgusted by Trump's behavior aren't going to love DeSantis.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2021, 03:18:39 AM »

I don't know why people assume he'd magically carry the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania meanwhile resurrecting the old Romney sun belt coalition.

Truth is, he might end up doing neither.

He is less likable than Trump and wouldn't hit the rural numbers. I also don't think he'd improve in the suburbs because his attitude is similar to Trump's. Suburbanites that were disgusted by Trump's behavior aren't going to love DeSantis.


I’m not saying he’d do as well as Romney did in the sunbelt , just a point or two  better than Trump which is critical in a state like Arizona


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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2021, 03:46:59 AM »

“Opinion of Ron DeSantis?”

Anyway, no way to tell for sure. He’d probably be a better candidate than Trump ‘24, but that’s probably not saying much.
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FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2021, 03:55:26 AM »

"Is Rick Perry a stronger candidate than McCain was in 08?"
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2021, 04:38:42 AM »

FL doesn't have any income tax they have sales and property taxes that's why he is not scrutinized by media

That's why FL hasn't had a Dem Gov since 1999, when Ds did better at the state Legislature, due to fact voters are worried that D's win FL will raise their property taxes, Homes are very expensive in FL

That's why all the Ds run for Congress like Louis Franklen whom was part of the 2000 Gore recount instead of the state Legislature, the are DOA

Once he runs for Prez he will have to come out with a 20% across the board tax cut and in a Pandemic, no one wants a tax cut, they alsoo don't want their taxes raised in MI, PA and WI, not in the Deep South, with the exception of AZ and GA, DeSantis will lose kike Trump MI, WI and PA
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UNBEATABLE TITAN WAYNE MESSAM
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2021, 07:20:00 AM »
« Edited: June 11, 2021, 07:34:38 AM by UNBEATABLE TITAN WAYNE MESSAM »

Yes, most certainly much stronger IMO. He is generally more likable than Trump. He can turn out the rurals but he knows how to behave in front of the mainstream media, and he's signed on to a few bipartisan bills and done a few of those meetings to get a moderate image.

You go outside of your hyperpaetisan circle and you find that most Floridians, even Democrats, don't think he's that bad, and seeing the COVID numbers and the economic performance, even I can't help but agree on some level.

The other difference though is that Biden 2024 is also likelier to be stronger than Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 due to a healthier economy, also being more likable, and incumbency, so DeSantis being stronger doesn't mean he's gonna necessarily win (in fact I think he's likely to lose).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2021, 07:34:17 AM »

I'm not sure why people think the same college+ whites in the suburbs who were turned off by Trump wouldn't be completely turned off by DeSantis as well?
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2021, 08:05:49 AM »

Yes, most certainly much stronger IMO. He is generally more likable than Trump. He can turn out the rurals but he knows how to behave in front of the mainstream media, and he's signed on to a few bipartisan bills and done a few of those meetings to get a moderate image.

You go outside of your hyperpaetisan circle and you find that most Floridians, even Democrats, don't think he's that bad, and seeing the COVID numbers and the economic performance, even I can't help but agree on some level.

The other difference though is that Biden 2024 is also likelier to be stronger than Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 due to a healthier economy, also being more likable, and incumbency, so DeSantis being stronger doesn't mean he's gonna necessarily win (in fact I think he's likely to lose).

So maybe he could be closer to Mitt Romney 2012. A respectable statesman who comes off as giving something to everyone who runs a well-oiled campaign but ultimately loses by a small but convincing amount (Kerry also comes to mind).
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The Trump Virus
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« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2021, 08:12:41 AM »

Yes, because he won't alienate a significant portion of the population.
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UNBEATABLE TITAN WAYNE MESSAM
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2021, 08:26:26 AM »

Yes, most certainly much stronger IMO. He is generally more likable than Trump. He can turn out the rurals but he knows how to behave in front of the mainstream media, and he's signed on to a few bipartisan bills and done a few of those meetings to get a moderate image.

You go outside of your hyperpaetisan circle and you find that most Floridians, even Democrats, don't think he's that bad, and seeing the COVID numbers and the economic performance, even I can't help but agree on some level.

The other difference though is that Biden 2024 is also likelier to be stronger than Biden 2020 or Clinton 2016 due to a healthier economy, also being more likable, and incumbency, so DeSantis being stronger doesn't mean he's gonna necessarily win (in fact I think he's likely to lose).

So maybe he could be closer to Mitt Romney 2012. A respectable statesman who comes off as giving something to everyone who runs a well-oiled campaign but ultimately loses by a small but convincing amount (Kerry also comes to mind).

Maybe we'll even come full circle!

In 2028, Alex Jones is president and OSR has a signature with "DeSantis/Haley 2024" and "If only we'd elected them".  Angry  Angry  Angry
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2021, 08:57:48 AM »

He won't beat Biden, but if Harris is a candidate, he can beat her, that's why Rs want Harris as the Nominee which they wont get, Jill Biden is just as young as Hillary and enjoys living in WH

DeSantis and Trump are trailing Biden
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2021, 08:58:40 AM »

I'm not sure why people think the same college+ whites in the suburbs who were turned off by Trump wouldn't be completely turned off by DeSantis as well?

Because DeSantis is smarter, saner and has a much cleaner personal life?
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2021, 08:59:52 AM »

I'm not sure why people think the same college+ whites in the suburbs who were turned off by Trump wouldn't be completely turned off by DeSantis as well?

Because DeSantis is smarter, saner and has a much cleaner personal life?

How many people did Trump actually turn off that way?
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Senator-elect Scott🦋
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2021, 10:08:42 AM »

lol ron desantis dat bitch ho, my crew gave me the 411 on that skank ass motherf#cker an he allllllllll about da bling bling for his posse, dem desantis corporate tax cuts for deez limp pimp cracka ass bitches. man i swear dat bitch motherf#cker deserve gettin his ass whipped like dere no tomorow, know what issayin?
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« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2021, 10:14:04 AM »

I'm not sure why people think the same college+ whites in the suburbs who were turned off by Trump wouldn't be completely turned off by DeSantis as well?

Because at least some of them were turned off by Trump for superficial reasons, and DeSantis seems better to them. Voting patterns are based much more on image and group identity than policy.
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slothdem
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« Reply #21 on: June 11, 2021, 06:52:09 PM »

I think DeSantis is stronger than 16/20 Trump, but unfortunately for him Incumbent President Biden is substantially stronger than former Vice President Biden and a different universe from Hillary Clinton.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: June 11, 2021, 06:56:39 PM »

He can lose Reelection in a yr, Fried is tied with Crist now, she is a better opponent than Crist😄😄😄
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The Swayze Train
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« Reply #23 on: June 11, 2021, 07:40:21 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2021, 07:46:42 PM by 215 till I die »

Is there any reason to believe DeSantis outside of Florida is anything different from generic R?


To compare to the prior few GOP nominees I'd go

In the Rust Belt:
Trump '16>Trump '20>DeSantis '24>Romney '12

In the Sun Belt:
Romney '12>Trump '16>DeSantis '24>Trump '20

In FL:
DeSantis'24>Trump'20>Trump'16>Romney'12


Please note this is not a prediction of margin but rather a ranking of each candidate's strengths

DeSantis would win back some never-Trumpers. This could go a long way in the more conservative-leaning suburbs of Sun Belt swing states (TX, FL, AZ, maybe GA as a decent amount of country club Republicans still exist despite the demographic trends). However the issue any GOP candidate would have is they would actively have to make a case to these voters. Similar to how Trump solidified his support with exurban whites who might've initially been on the fence about him in '16, inertia favors Biden keeping his gains in inner suburbs.
Could also see his past as a Tea Party conservative hurting him in the northern swing states. He doesn't have some of Trump's more egregious weaknesses, but he also lacks his core strengths.


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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: June 11, 2021, 07:52:49 PM »

I am rooting for Fried to take out DeSantis
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