Colin or Denton?

[Schiff for Senate]

My guess is this:
 Neither county goes blue in the 2022 elections (the gubernatorial election).
 In 2024, they both may flip in the Senate election if Cruz runs and presidentially if Trump runs.
 In 2026, they might flip blue but only if Cornyn doesn't run, though even if he retires they may stay red, or have voted Democratic before then.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Collin flips in 2028, Denton in 2032

[Xing]

Hot take: Both flip in 2024, though Denton will be exceptionally close. These are not typical suburbs; they are among the fastest growing counties in the country, and even if suburban trends slow down, the growth in these counties means that the shift from 30+ point wins for the Republicans to single-digit wins won't simply reverse themselves "because Trump." Considering that Collin even voted a bit left of the state, both counties should flip even if Republicans hold Texas by a few points in 2024, and even if the trend deniers are right and Texas swings a bit to the right, Collin could still easily flip.

[S019]

My hunch is Collin in 2024 and Denton in 2028, but I agree with Xing largely otherwise. Republicans are in big trouble in both, given the large swings we saw there, in fact I think these two counties were some of the few where Biden outperformed O'Rourke.

[Schiff for Senate]

My hunch is Collin in 2024 and Denton in 2028, but I agree with Xing largely otherwise. Republicans are in big trouble in both, given the large swings we saw there, in fact I think these two counties were some of the few where Biden outperformed O'Rourke.

I copied a list of recent election results in the two counties onto the poll but it got deleted for some reason; I think there's a word limit or it just got cut out. But you're right, the two actually trended slightly bluer between 2018 and 2020: Collin supported Cruz 52.6-46.6%; Denton 53.6-45.5% Collin voted for Trump 51.4-47%; Denton 53.2-45.2%.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Collin County is probably a goner for Republicans in 2024, they might be able to still narrowly hold Denton County though.

[Schiff for Senate]

Collin County is probably a goner for Republicans in 2024, they might be able to still narrowly hold Denton County though.

Perhaps not, unless Trump is the nominee again. If the GOP nominates a mainstream like Nikki Haley, they could hold onto Collin County and perhaps even improve their margin. If they nominate someone like Kristi Noem, though, then it could possibly flip Democratic, especially if Biden is popular nationally and in suburban areas.

[Vladimir Leninov]

GOP will lose neither and win Tarrent back in 2024

[Real Texan Politics]

Collin goes blue in 2024 if the GOP nominates Trump, it'll go red if they nominate DeSantis. Assuming the latter, that may be the last hoorah for Collin and possibly Tarrant.

Denton probably doesn't flip until the early 2030s, but will continue to be competitive until that point.

Collin County is probably a goner for Republicans in 2024, they might be able to still narrowly hold Denton County though.

If they nominate someone like Kristi Noem, though, then it could possibly flip Democratic, especially if Biden is popular nationally and in suburban areas.

Noem seems establishment enough to hold onto Collin IMO.

[Schiff for Senate]

Collin goes blue in 2024 if the GOP nominates Trump, it'll go red if they nominate DeSantis. Assuming the latter, that may be the last hoorah for Collin and possibly Tarrant.

Denton probably doesn't flip until the early 2030s, but will continue to be competitive until that point.

Collin County is probably a goner for Republicans in 2024, they might be able to still narrowly hold Denton County though.

If they nominate someone like Kristi Noem, though, then it could possibly flip Democratic, especially if Biden is popular nationally and in suburban areas.

Noem seems establishment enough to hold onto Collin IMO.

Noem is so unpopular (SD was the only state to refuse COVID-19 government financial aid; SD also has the most cases per capita along with its northern neighbour) that she won by less than 5 points in a state Trump won by 30%. Noem isn't "establishment" - see her handling on COVID-19. Nikki Haley is. In a Noem vs. Harris matchup in a good Democratic year, I can see Harris carrying Collin and quite possibly Denton County.