fictional county of Hickory, TN

[freepcrusher]

basically its Davidson County, TN and the six counties that border it. Here are the numbers beginning in 1972

1972: Nixon 62.5% 199051 votes
1976 Carter 62.3% 254098 votes
1980 Carter 57.2% 287387 votes
1984 Reagan 56% 315347 votes
1988 Bush 56.6% 322674 votes
1992 Clinton 48.1% 388744 votes
1996 Clinton 49.2% 396242 votes
2000 Gore 49.4% 448372 votes
2004 Bush 56.3% 553801 votes
2008 McCain 53.9% 623521 votes
2012 Romney 56.5% 599132 votes
2016 Trump 53.2% 634051 votes
2020 Trump 51.7% 813489 votes

I wanted to do it as a study on the relative crackability or non-crackability an area is at a congressional level. I decided to compare it to Austin, TX and what it would have looked like in 2004 when I assume it would have been more crackable. What I found was that Travis County and the six counties that surround it - in 2004; went for Bush by only 12,000 votes. So its why looking at raw numbers is more important. Davidson gave Biden 64% of the vote while in 2004, Travis only gave Kerry 56%. But raw numbers mean more.

My hope is that by 2030, if you can get the seven county Nashville region back to (Bill) Clinton numbers which may or may not be doable (would probably involve flipping Rutherford and getting Williamson down to 10-15 points), the TN legislature might have to vote sink Nashville again. You could call it the "Nashville zionism" movement (i.e. concentrating rather than dispersing).

[Vosem]

Tennessee is really really really likely to gain a seat in 2030 (per the Census Bureau's own estimates of its 2020 errors, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas should all have gotten an extra seat, at the expense of Minnesota, Colorado, and Rhode Island), and my guess given the absolutely bonkers pace of growth is that it's probably likelier than not that that seat will be a Nashville vote-sink.

[kwabbit]

Tennessee is really really really likely to gain a seat in 2030 (per the Census Bureau's own estimates of its 2020 errors, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas should all have gotten an extra seat, at the expense of Minnesota, Colorado, and Rhode Island), and my guess given the absolutely bonkers pace of growth is that it's probably likelier than not that that seat will be a Nashville vote-sink.

Here's a TN with 10 seat map extrapolating the 2010-2020 pop growth. Each seat is expected to have 747k people in 2030. Growth seems to be accelerating around Nashville even though. Honestly a fair map could have a competitive Nashville suburban seat if population and partisan trends continue.

TN 2030

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's worth saying that a traditional "collar counties" map isn't really useful for Nashville.  The terrain becomes much rougher to the north and northwest of Nashville (except directly following the Cumberland towards Clarksville).  Because of that, Robertson and Cheatham aren't suburbanized as much as you would think they would be.  But, Maury County is very suburban at this point and growing extremely fast (the fastest in the whole state).  Maury and probably Marshall Counties really should be part of this thought process before Robertson and Cheatham Counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tennessee is really really really likely to gain a seat in 2030 (per the Census Bureau's own estimates of its 2020 errors, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas should all have gotten an extra seat, at the expense of Minnesota, Colorado, and Rhode Island), and my guess given the absolutely bonkers pace of growth is that it's probably likelier than not that that seat will be a Nashville vote-sink.

Here's a TN with 10 seat map extrapolating the 2010-2020 pop growth. Each seat is expected to have 747k people in 2030. Growth seems to be accelerating around Nashville even though. Honestly a fair map could have a competitive Nashville suburban seat if population and partisan trends continue.

TN 2030

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3586da-adca-4720-9cae-64ae124565f7
Rs conceding a vote sink is not necessarily inevitable.

[kwabbit]

Tennessee is really really really likely to gain a seat in 2030 (per the Census Bureau's own estimates of its 2020 errors, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas should all have gotten an extra seat, at the expense of Minnesota, Colorado, and Rhode Island), and my guess given the absolutely bonkers pace of growth is that it's probably likelier than not that that seat will be a Nashville vote-sink.

Here's a TN with 10 seat map extrapolating the 2010-2020 pop growth. Each seat is expected to have 747k people in 2030. Growth seems to be accelerating around Nashville even though. Honestly a fair map could have a competitive Nashville suburban seat if population and partisan trends continue.

TN 2030

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3586da-adca-4720-9cae-64ae124565f7
Rs conceding a vote sink is not necessarily inevitable.

That could happen, but the GOP will have 8 incumbents to satisfy. In 2020 all incumbents got to have a completely safe seat, that won't be the case in 2030 if they crack Nashville again.

[Nyvin]

Tennessee is really really really likely to gain a seat in 2030 (per the Census Bureau's own estimates of its 2020 errors, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas should all have gotten an extra seat, at the expense of Minnesota, Colorado, and Rhode Island), and my guess given the absolutely bonkers pace of growth is that it's probably likelier than not that that seat will be a Nashville vote-sink.

Here's a TN with 10 seat map extrapolating the 2010-2020 pop growth. Each seat is expected to have 747k people in 2030. Growth seems to be accelerating around Nashville even though. Honestly a fair map could have a competitive Nashville suburban seat if population and partisan trends continue.

TN 2030

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3586da-adca-4720-9cae-64ae124565f7
Rs conceding a vote sink is not necessarily inevitable.

That could happen, but the GOP will have 8 incumbents to satisfy. In 2020 all incumbents got to have a completely safe seat, that won't be the case in 2030 if they crack Nashville again.

Also we have another ~7 years of trends to go through.   By that point half those districts could be competitive for all we know.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tennessee is really really really likely to gain a seat in 2030 (per the Census Bureau's own estimates of its 2020 errors, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas should all have gotten an extra seat, at the expense of Minnesota, Colorado, and Rhode Island), and my guess given the absolutely bonkers pace of growth is that it's probably likelier than not that that seat will be a Nashville vote-sink.

Here's a TN with 10 seat map extrapolating the 2010-2020 pop growth. Each seat is expected to have 747k people in 2030. Growth seems to be accelerating around Nashville even though. Honestly a fair map could have a competitive Nashville suburban seat if population and partisan trends continue.

TN 2030

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3586da-adca-4720-9cae-64ae124565f7
Rs conceding a vote sink is not necessarily inevitable.

That could happen, but the GOP will have 8 incumbents to satisfy. In 2020 all incumbents got to have a completely safe seat, that won't be the case in 2030 if they crack Nashville again.

Also we have another ~7 years of trends to go through.   By that point half those districts could be competitive for all we know.

Well, the fundamental problem for Rs is the growth of Nashville and, to some degree, some level of erosion of margins in places nearby. The fundamental problem for Ds is that, besides that, they really aren't gaining in rural Tennessee. For Rs, the obvious play, if they can get their incumbents on board, is to create five rurban seats mixing Nashville and rural areas. Especially since the 2018 Senate loss margins have not been able to replicated by Ds, not even close, since...unless white evangelicals suddenly look likely to trend D, in which case, all bets are off.

[Mr. Smith]

Looks more prosperous than Yoknapatawpha at least.