VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2 (user search)
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  VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2  (Read 1247 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: June 10, 2021, 04:50:57 PM »

A baseline for the R best case scenario?  Not too good if you can't make your own candidate lead in an internal.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2021, 11:10:39 AM »

I will say, if it did end up McAuliffe +2, they could snag AG if there's a couple % of Dems who skip that race due to Herring's scandal. 

Also, if it's McAuliffe +4 or less, there's a good chance the House of Delegates flips.  Clinton just barely won a majority of the seats at +5 in 2016, but Biden's vote distribution was better.  If the state legislative vote exactly follows Biden, they could hold on with a tied Gov race, but recent data (2017 and 2019) suggests that there are some federal Dem voters who haven't flipped at the state legislative level.  A couple of R incumbents held what would be digit Biden seats in both chambers in 2019 (the senate is not up again until 2023).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2021, 06:09:02 PM »

A McAulliffe victory of ~8-12% wouldn't surprise me at all. There seems to be consistency with Democratic margins in Virginia now. Biden won by 10%, Warner by 12%, and Northam by 9% in 2017. The only significant outlier to this was Kaine's 16% win in 2018, and that was against the worst possible Republican candidate (Cory Stewart). There's a slight possibility that Youngkin could pull off an upset, but it is very slight. McAuliffe will run up the numbers in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Tidewater area, and that will be enough for him.

Yes, but that gets him to +6, not +12.  For that, he needs the outer suburbs at Biden levels and/or a better-than-Biden performance in the rurals.  Also, Youngkin has personal connections to VA Beach, so I don't think Biden/Northam level support in the Tidewater is assured.  McAuliffe still wins if it turns into a true NOVA vs. everyone else race, but it would be an unimpressive margin, perhaps +3.
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