I will say, if it did end up McAuliffe +2, they could snag AG if there's a couple % of Dems who skip that race due to Herring's scandal.
Also, if it's McAuliffe +4 or less, there's a good chance the House of Delegates flips. Clinton just barely won a majority of the seats at +5 in 2016, but Biden's vote distribution was better. If the state legislative vote exactly follows Biden, they could hold on with a tied Gov race, but recent data (2017 and 2019) suggests that there are some federal Dem voters who haven't flipped at the state legislative level. A couple of R incumbents held what would be digit Biden seats in both chambers in 2019 (the senate is not up again until 2023).
I mean there is major evidence everywhere that college educated whites are leaving democrats en masse and going to the GOP. It may be less pronounced in Virginia and Maryland but people will be in for a big surprise in the 2022 midterm elections even when Nova is why McAufflie ends up winning.
