VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2
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  VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2
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Author Topic: VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2  (Read 679 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: June 10, 2021, 09:37:07 AM »

Among other things, no way Youngkin is actually leading with Indies.



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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2021, 11:17:58 AM »

McAuliffe is a runner stamp DLC Politician like Newsom is he might lose
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jimmie
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2021, 12:00:53 PM »

See i told  yall college whites are fleeing dems BIG!!!!
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2021, 12:03:12 PM »

Its a D Midterm where we still are in a Pandemic, naturally Rs are favored to win, Trump would be in the same bind with Covid still an issue if he was still Prez, if D's do lose its not because they are vacating the D party, is that they don't want their taxes raised and Biden keep borrowing monies and a check on Biden
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2021, 01:19:16 PM »

A Republican hack poll. T-Mac is fine and will win by high single digits.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2021, 04:13:35 PM »

1. Wrong board.

2. Post your "analysis"/hackish commentary after posting the poll, preferably in a separate post.

3. Republicans could lose this by a high single-digit margin (as I suspect they will) and 2022 could still be a R mini-wave/great year for the party. Not a bellwether state, kids!
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2021, 04:16:02 PM »

McAuliffe was never gonna runaway with this it was always a 5 pt race
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2021, 04:31:33 PM »

Anything over 45 at this point gives a huge advantage to the Incumbent. This is good for a D incumbent from an R internal poll. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2021, 04:50:57 PM »

A baseline for the R best case scenario?  Not too good if you can't make your own candidate lead in an internal.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2021, 05:30:16 AM »

1. Wrong board.

2. Post your "analysis"/hackish commentary after posting the poll, preferably in a separate post.

3. Republicans could lose this by a high single-digit margin (as I suspect they will) and 2022 could still be a R mini-wave/great year for the party. Not a bellwether state, kids!

Go take your attitude somewhere else. Must suck to be such a miserable person.
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SecularGlobalist
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2021, 06:48:29 AM »

I believe it wholeheartedly.  Mac Daddy almost lost to Ken "Smell my Finger" Cooch; in the immediate afterglow of O's reelection in which Mac Daddy should have theoretically won the Commonwealth by a healthy +20

We technocrats are the new blacks who are trying to sit at the white man's counter.   

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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2021, 07:50:49 AM »

1. Wrong board.

2. Post your "analysis"/hackish commentary after posting the poll, preferably in a separate post.

3. Republicans could lose this by a high single-digit margin (as I suspect they will) and 2022 could still be a R mini-wave/great year for the party. Not a bellwether state, kids!
Literally no one was saying otherwise.
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2021, 08:07:43 AM »

Can yíall stop being annoying for once? Itís just a Republican internal.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2021, 10:54:36 AM »

Every race isn't gonna flow like the Prez race, we are in a Midterm, like MI may vote for an R Gov as so can Cali, but we are gonna win VA.

Also, Rs can certainly win PA Gov
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UncleSam
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« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2021, 10:59:43 AM »

1. Wrong board.

2. Post your "analysis"/hackish commentary after posting the poll, preferably in a separate post.

3. Republicans could lose this by a high single-digit margin (as I suspect they will) and 2022 could still be a R mini-wave/great year for the party. Not a bellwether state, kids!

Go take your attitude somewhere else. Must suck to be such a miserable person.
HuhHuhHuh

What Ďattitudeí, and why is your first reaction to anything you dislike for that person to leave so you donít have to listen to alternative viewpoints anymore? Might wanna consider why that is tbh but either way Iím sure Iím not alone in saying the vast majority donít want MT Treasurer going anywhere, even if I donít always agree with his takes.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2021, 11:10:39 AM »

I will say, if it did end up McAuliffe +2, they could snag AG if there's a couple % of Dems who skip that race due to Herring's scandal. 

Also, if it's McAuliffe +4 or less, there's a good chance the House of Delegates flips.  Clinton just barely won a majority of the seats at +5 in 2016, but Biden's vote distribution was better.  If the state legislative vote exactly follows Biden, they could hold on with a tied Gov race, but recent data (2017 and 2019) suggests that there are some federal Dem voters who haven't flipped at the state legislative level.  A couple of R incumbents held what would be digit Biden seats in both chambers in 2019 (the senate is not up again until 2023).
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2021, 11:13:19 AM »

I will say, if it did end up McAuliffe +2, they could snag AG if there's a couple % of Dems who skip that race due to Herring's scandal. 

Also, if it's McAuliffe +4 or less, there's a good chance the House of Delegates flips.  Clinton just barely won a majority of the seats at +5 in 2016, but Biden's vote distribution was better.  If the state legislative vote exactly follows Biden, they could hold on with a tied Gov race, but recent data (2017 and 2019) suggests that there are some federal Dem voters who haven't flipped at the state legislative level.  A couple of R incumbents held what would be digit Biden seats in both chambers in 2019 (the senate is not up again until 2023).

I mean there is major evidence everywhere that college educated whites are leaving democrats en masse and going to the GOP. It may be less pronounced in Virginia and Maryland but people will be in for a big surprise in the 2022 midterm elections even when Nova is why McAufflie ends up winning.
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Southern Senator Spark
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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2021, 11:31:02 AM »

This is surprising, but yet it is only an R internal poll.. I will be more convinced if we see consistent polling like this and I will have to adjust my prediction.

I hope Youngkin wins, but I think McAuliffe has it in the bag.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2021, 11:33:44 AM »


I hope Youngkin wins, but I think McAuliffe has it in the bag.

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Southern Senator Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2021, 11:34:31 AM »


I agree with him on social issues and guns for that state.
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Holmes
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« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2021, 11:38:56 AM »

I mean there is major evidence everywhere that college educated whites are leaving democrats en masse and going to the GOP.

Where?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #21 on: June 11, 2021, 11:41:23 AM »

I mean there is major evidence everywhere that college educated whites are leaving democrats en masse and going to the GOP.

Where?

His ass
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: June 11, 2021, 09:11:28 PM »

Yeah, sorry if that sounded too confrontational, itís just frustrating to open a thread like this and then already have a narrative forced upon me in the first post instead of just being presented with the actual numbers. Weíre all capable of deducing that this is a R-leaning poll/internal (itís also in the title), so thereís absolutely no need to cherry-pick random crosstabs like Youngkin leading with independents to discredit the entire poll, especially before you even post the actual results. Itís even more frustrating given that this is coming from the same posters who have been doing this for years and havenít learned a thing from the last (or any) election ó itís like interacting with a brick wall at this point. The same goes for the "Republicans will stay home in 2022 because Trump isnít on the ballot" narrative, which has been dignified to an absurd extent and taken to extremes by the same robotic posters.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: June 11, 2021, 09:18:53 PM »

T Mac wins 52/48 but he was never gonna win by more than 2/5 pts
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2021, 04:25:10 PM »

A McAulliffe victory of ~8-12% wouldn't surprise me at all. There seems to be consistency with Democratic margins in Virginia now. Biden won by 10%, Warner by 12%, and Northam by 9% in 2017. The only significant outlier to this was Kaine's 16% win in 2018, and that was against the worst possible Republican candidate (Cory Stewart). There's a slight possibility that Youngkin could pull off an upset, but it is very slight. McAuliffe will run up the numbers in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Tidewater area, and that will be enough for him.
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