VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2
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  VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2
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Author Topic: VA-GOV (WPA Intelligence/R Internal): McAuliffe +2  (Read 1241 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #25 on: June 12, 2021, 06:09:02 PM »

A McAulliffe victory of ~8-12% wouldn't surprise me at all. There seems to be consistency with Democratic margins in Virginia now. Biden won by 10%, Warner by 12%, and Northam by 9% in 2017. The only significant outlier to this was Kaine's 16% win in 2018, and that was against the worst possible Republican candidate (Cory Stewart). There's a slight possibility that Youngkin could pull off an upset, but it is very slight. McAuliffe will run up the numbers in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Tidewater area, and that will be enough for him.

Yes, but that gets him to +6, not +12.  For that, he needs the outer suburbs at Biden levels and/or a better-than-Biden performance in the rurals.  Also, Youngkin has personal connections to VA Beach, so I don't think Biden/Northam level support in the Tidewater is assured.  McAuliffe still wins if it turns into a true NOVA vs. everyone else race, but it would be an unimpressive margin, perhaps +3.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2021, 10:48:22 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 10:53:24 PM by Teflon Joe. »

It's not 2009 anymore, Virginia each year speeds to the left. McAuliffe is going to win by a similar margin as the 2017 race, high single digits. There isn't Trump to energize Democrats, but there is another 4 years of the pro Democratic trend.

 
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Chips
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« Reply #27 on: June 13, 2021, 11:47:47 PM »

I will once again repeat the point. McAuliffe is obviously the favorite to win but it's not a sleeper race. I don't think it will be this narrow in the end but a McAuliffe lead of a margin slightly under Clinton's margin wouldn't surprise me. Youngkin I think has anywhere from a 10-25% chance of winning. Not insignificant but it's McAuliffe favored. Pretty strong Lean D in my opinion.
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« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2021, 02:32:21 PM »

I expect 6 points win for McAuliffe which is in line with this poll when you adjust to a neutral poll
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