VA-JMC- McAuliffe +4
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  VA-JMC- McAuliffe +4
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Author Topic: VA-JMC- McAuliffe +4  (Read 2087 times)
Matty
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« Reply #25 on: June 13, 2021, 04:42:14 PM »

Throw it in the average. That Biden approval is way too low

Yep. Biden's approval being +5 and Northam being +1 is just ridiculous.

It’s embarrassing that VA voters have forgiven northam for the yearbook abomination
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #26 on: June 13, 2021, 04:58:47 PM »

Throw it in the average. That Biden approval is way too low

Yep. Biden's approval being +5 and Northam being +1 is just ridiculous.

It’s embarrassing that VA voters have forgiven northam for the yearbook abomination

Is it? A great many elected officials have done or are in the process of doing worse as mature adults without electoral detriment. I would argue Northam's governance shortcomings are worse than his racism in school, but even if you weight for personal failure highly, VA's elected (and will continue to elect) worse.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: June 13, 2021, 06:07:20 PM »

McAuliffe is a blue dog just like Ryan, Jackson, Kelly, and Fetterman whom all can win this yr and next yr

Bullock was a blue dog and he only lost due to Gianforte not Daines, that's why I donate to blue dogs only and have donated to Ryan and Jackson, Kelly, Fetterman have enough money, already
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Chips
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« Reply #28 on: June 13, 2021, 11:43:38 PM »

This seems plausible. Youngkin certainly has a chance at the upset but the indication is that this is still McAuliffe's race to lose.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2021, 08:00:09 AM »

I can reasonable believe that this is a worst case for Democrats.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #30 on: June 14, 2021, 01:42:06 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2021, 01:58:12 PM by Skill and Chance »

Did they forget to poll NoVa? I still think this race will be decided by 10-12%, at worst 8-10% favoring the Dems. This isn’t 2009-10 VA anymore. It’s clearly a blue state at every level, and there are no signs of these trends de accelerating, let alone reversing, anytime soon.

Interestingly, if you look at the crosstabs, basically all of McAuliffe's decline vs. Biden is in NOVA.  NOVA looks like the Obama era in this poll, but the rest of the state looks just like 2020. 

Exactly. That doesn’t make any sense.

It would be broadly consistent with a collapse in the Asian/Hispanic Dem vote while they are matching or exceeding 2020 with white and black voters.  The recent special election results would be consistent with this (TX-06 lockout, GOP flip of McAllen, easy Dem holds in Scranton and NH, coalition shift from Hispanic to white areas of ABQ in NM-01). 
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #31 on: June 15, 2021, 06:31:58 PM »

I am pretty skeptical of this poll as well. I'm still not all that worried about this race. I do, however, think that McAuliffe will win by less than Northam for a litany reasons like statewide party fatigue (if that's even a thing), Youngkin not being as desperate and pathetic as Gillespie (from what it seems so far), and a potential for Democratic turnout to be less enthused compared to 2017. I could buy McAuliffe winning by six points maybe if that all that turns out to be true. And I don't know what that would suggest about 2022.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #32 on: June 16, 2021, 08:58:26 PM »

McAuliffe is a blue dog just like Ryan, Jackson, Kelly, and Fetterman whom all can win this yr and next yr



McAuliife is not a Blue Dog in any way, shape, or form.

He's too sleazy and greasy.  

As an Arlingtonian, he is whatever I want him to be.   And blue dog ain't it.  At the time being.

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Holmes
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« Reply #33 on: June 16, 2021, 09:21:35 PM »

Did they forget to poll NoVa? I still think this race will be decided by 10-12%, at worst 8-10% favoring the Dems. This isn’t 2009-10 VA anymore. It’s clearly a blue state at every level, and there are no signs of these trends de accelerating, let alone reversing, anytime soon.

Interestingly, if you look at the crosstabs, basically all of McAuliffe's decline vs. Biden is in NOVA.  NOVA looks like the Obama era in this poll, but the rest of the state looks just like 2020.  

So excited for the “REPUBLICAN SURGE IN NOVA” posts and articles for the next five months.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #34 on: June 19, 2021, 08:49:25 PM »

Did they forget to poll NoVa? I still think this race will be decided by 10-12%, at worst 8-10% favoring the Dems. This isn’t 2009-10 VA anymore. It’s clearly a blue state at every level, and there are no signs of these trends de accelerating, let alone reversing, anytime soon.

Interestingly, if you look at the crosstabs, basically all of McAuliffe's decline vs. Biden is in NOVA.  NOVA looks like the Obama era in this poll, but the rest of the state looks just like 2020.  

So excited for the “REPUBLICAN SURGE IN NOVA” posts and articles for the next five months.

The rain in Nova meme was started in the 2017 VA gubernatorial race by Limo Liberal.
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