435 seat China

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reapportionment changes from 2010 to 2020:

+5
Guangdong

+2
Zhejiang

+1
Beijing, Chongqing, Fujian, Guizhou, Xinjiang

-1
Hebei, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Shanxi

-2
Jilin

-3
Heliongjang

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Population loss in 绥化市 (Suihua City) was so severe that the city goes from having 2 seats within its borders to just one. It fell from 5.418 million (big enough to be able to have two underpopulated seats within the +/-20% quota) to 3.756 million (small enough to be a seat all to itself). Of three seats lost in Heliongjiang, one is within Suihua City itself.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

This is really cool.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is really cool.

Thanks. Feel free to use this map (both the 2010 and eventual 2020 versions) in your projects, all I ask for is credit.
Heliongjiang and Manchuria in general will be particularly different between the two.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guangdong's 5 seats have a ton of leeway to change the map. Warning in advance: this is not an exhaustive list.

Likely:
深圳市 (Shenzhen City) goes from having 3 overpopulated seats, to 5 overpopulated seats, or 6 underpopulated ones.
东莞市 (Dongguan City) goes from having 2.5 seats (generally lightly overpopulated) to having 3 seats to itself, quite a bit overpopulated.
广州市 (Guangzhou/Canton City) goes from 4 (lightly overpopulated) seats, to six seats together more or less equal to quota.
惠州市 (Huizhou City) gains enough people to go from 1.5 seats to 2.
佛山市 (Foshan City) goes from being too large for 2 seats in practice, to being perfect for three.
珠海市 (Zhuhai City) goes from 50% of a seat to 75% of a seat. Math will be tricky in this area, it does not compute as cleanly as last time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jilin loses almost as much as Heliongjiang and it goes from having among the most underpopulated seats in the country to having among the most overpopulated. It is the only province to lose precisely two seats. 白城市 (Baicheng City) and 松原市 (Songyuan City) have two seats between them in 2010 and are reduced to a single one, shared between them, in 2020. 吉林市 (Jilin City) will now have to be within a single district. 长春市 (Changchun City) will effectively lose a district. Both districts bordering North Korea are unchanged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some changes will be done in order to reduce the amount of districts crossing county and city lines. # marks districts unchanged from 2010.

#Anhui-1: 泗县 (Si County), 灵璧县 (Lingbi County), 埇桥区 (Yongqiao District)
2020 population: 3,504,315

Anhui-2: 砀山县 (Dangshan County), 萧县 (Xiao County), 淮北市 (Huaibei City)
2020 population: 3,790,426

#Anhui-3: 蚌埠市 (Bengbu City)
2020 population: 3,296,408

Anhui-4: 涡阳县 (Woyang County), 蒙城县 (Mengcheng County), 利辛县 (Lixin County)
2020 population: 3,459,613

#Anhui-5: 谯城区 (Xiaocheng District), 太和县 (Taihe County)
2020 population: 2,917,213

#Anhui-6: 临泉县 (Linquan County), 界首市 (Jieshou City), 阜南县 (Funan County)
2020 population: 3,492,914

Anhui-7: 颍东区 (Yingdong District), 颍州区 (Yingzhou District), 颍泉区 (Yingquan District), 颍上县 (Yingshan County)
2020 population: 3,327,368

#Anhui-8: 淮南市 (Huainan City)
2020 population: 3,033,528

#Anhui-9: 凤阳县 (Fengyang County), 定远县 (Dingyuan County), 明光市 (Mingguang City), 来安县 (Laian County), 天长市 (Tianchang City)
2020 population: 2,808,750

#Anhui-10: 琅琊区 (Langya District), 南谯区 (Nanqiao District), 全椒县 (Quanjiao County), 马鞍山市 (Maanshan City)
2020 population: 3,338,234

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

合肥市 (Hefei City) jumped in population from 7.457 million in 2010 to 9.370 million, earning it another seat.
It has the entire net population gain of the province.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anhui-11: 霍邱县 (Huoqiu County), 裕安区 (Yuan District), 金安区 (Jinan District), 叶集区 (Yeji District), 金寨县 (Jinzhai County)
2020 population: 3,410,252

Anhui-12: 长丰县 (Changfeng County), 庐阳区 (Luyang District), 蜀山区 (Shushan District)
2020 population: 2,809,782

Anhui-13: 瑶海区 (Yaohai District), 包河区 (Baohe District)
2020 population: 3,092,399

Anhui-14: 霍山县 (Huoshan County), 舒城县 (Shucheng County), 岳西县 (Yuexi County), 太湖县 (Taihu County), 宿松县 (Susong County), 望江县 (Wangjiang County)
2020 population: 3,253,926

#Anhui-15: 芜湖县 (Wuhu County), 镜湖区 (Jinghu District), 三山区 (Sanshan District), 繁昌县 (Fanchang County), 弋江区 (Yijiang District), 鸠江区 (Jiujiang District), 无为县 (Wuwei County)
2020 population: 3,213,272

Anhui-16: 庐江县 (Lujiang County), 肥西县 (Feixi County), 巢湖市 (Chaohu City), 肥东县 (Feidong County)
2020 population: 3,467,700

#Anhui-17: 宣城市 (Xuancheng City), 南陵县 (Nanling County)
2020 population: 2,931,211

Anhui-18: 铜陵市 (Tongling City) less a enclave, 桐城市 (Tongcheng City), 潜山市 (Qianshan City), 怀宁县 (Huaining County), 宜秀区 (Yixiu District), 大观区 (Daguan District), 迎江区 (Yingjiang District)
2020 population: 3,204,253

#Anhui-19: 池州市 (Chizhou City), 黄山市 (Huangshan City), an enclave of 铜陵市 (Tongling City)
2020 population: 2,673,329



10/19 seats in Anhui are unchanged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beijing's new district will be located in the southern suburbs of Beijing's urban core, which have registered incredible population growth over the 2010s. Beijing-2 has grown so much that its 2020 population exceeds 5 million and even a pairing of 大兴区 (Daxing District) and 通州区 (Tongzhou District) would exceed 20% over quota with Beijing sitting at 7 seats (it would be within range if it was still at six). Beijing-1 is also guaranteed to change. Meanwhile, Beijing-3 is guaranteed to remain the same.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beijing-1: 昌平区 (Changping District), 延庆区 (Yanping District), 怀柔区 (Huairou District), 密云区 (Miyun District)
2020 population: 3,583,881

Beijing-2: 顺义区 (Shunyi District), 首都机场街道办事处 (Beijing Intl Airport), 通州区 (Tongzhou District), 平谷区 (Pinggu District)
2020 population: 3,638,489

#Beijing-3: All of 朝阳区 (Chaoyang District) except for 首都机场街道办事处 (Beijing Intl Airport)
2020 population: 3,435,623

#Beijing-4: 海淀区 (Haidian District)
2020 population: 3,133,469

#Beijing-5: 东城区 (Dongcheng District), 西城区 (Xicheng District), all of 丰台区 (Fengtai District) east of 花乡地区办事处 (Huaxiang Area)
2020 population: 2,693,792

Beijing-6: all of 丰台区 (Fengtai District) not in Beijing-5, all of 房山区 (Fangshan District) not in Beijing-7, 石景山区 (Shijingshan District), 门头沟区 (Mentougou District)
2020 population: 2,585,129

Beijing-7: 大兴区 (Daxing District), all of 房山区 (Fangshan District) east of 城关街道 (Chuengguan Subdistrict) except for 青龙湖镇 (Xinglonghu Town)
2020 population: 2,822,692



3/7 unchanged.

[It’s so Joever]

I feel like if China had always been a democracy, Beijing area would be a former left lock that is trending right wards because of suburban growth, much like Atlanta or Houston in the 1960s. Really much of Chinese political coalitions may be 1960s like.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I feel like if China had always been a democracy, Beijing area would be a former left lock that is trending right wards because of suburban growth, much like Atlanta or Houston in the 1960s. Really much of Chinese political coalitions may be 1960s like.

“Maoist left vs national-liberal right”

No. The left-right axis applies to economic and social issues, and one can hold differing positions on either

Progressive/conservative = social/cultural orientation, left/right = economic and social power. For example, there is a parochial, traditionalist, and statist “Left” orientation in the PRC political spectrum that is diametrically opposed to a more cosmopolitan, socially liberal, and pro-market “Right” orientation.

2020 me quoting a 2019 thread

What are the chances and possible consequences of democratisation in China?

None, because the strongest forces outside the ruling clique are a cult, nationalists, and Maoists. If they do make a democracy, it will be a democracy in name only with 1-2 parties that are made up of ex CCP officials.

-snip-


What would a democratic China look like?

The most potent forces in the public consciousness today are Maoism and Nationalism. The "mainstream" CCP today is a compromise between these two lines of thought, which has produced a capitalist middle ground that people "consent" to because it's working so far. A Chinese democracy would be the same thing, just polarized. There would be a Maoist Party, appealing to people who feel left behind in the New China, and a Nationalist Party, appealing to the elite, who would trade majorities with each other. They would broadly agree on a much more aggressive foreign policy than what the CCP, motivated mainly by economic interests, is pursuing now.

Because everyone with any kind of government experience is or was a CCP member, the parties would be led by largely the same people who are running the CCP today. Just, instead of using the "collective decision making process" I described in the section about CCP plasticity, they'd form 2 distinct factions - leftist and rightist - and fight their battles in public.


Q: What do you think the biggest policy differences would be between Maoists and Nationalists? And how do they differ from the current regime?

Good question - Maoists want to adhere to China's constitution, which is Communist. They would increase state control over the economy, invest in the underdeveloped provinces, and restore Mao's "iron bowl" of guaranteed employment and welfare. They would make a better social security net and ban public display of extravagance.

Nationalists wouldn't be averse to officially becoming capitalist and democratic - becoming a democracy would make Taiwan rejoin China the next time the Kuomintang wins an election there. Nationalists would in other regards do exactly what the regime is doing vis a vis militarization and ethnic policy, but they would get rid of affirmative action, which is more aggressive in China than anywhere else in the world.

The current government is a compromise between the two. It's cracking down on minorities while preserving affirmative action, it's officially Communist while de facto capitalist, but still maintains state industries. It's following the nationalist recommendations for militarization, while maintaining Communist indoctrination of the rank and file of the army. It's investing in underdeveloped provinces while not offering welfare benefits. It's cracking down on public displays of extravagance through the "anti-corruption" campaign while allowing extravagance behind closed doors.

Q: Is the nationalist party comparable to American racists? Are the the ones strongly supporting repression of minorities in china?

Yes, but more closely with Japanese fascists.

Q: Is there any green or environmental consciousness in China or any organisation s that advocate such policies?

Yes! There are lots of environmental associations and they are probably the single biggest “opposition” movement. Every year in China there are several hundred “mass incidents” (protests) and many of them are about the environment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Additional district in Chongqing can be drawn while keeping all but three districts unchanged (however, some unchanged districts will be renumbered). Districts kept the same but renumbered will be marked with two #.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

#Chongqing-1: 巫山县 (Wushan County), 奉节县 (Fengjie County), 巫溪县 (Wuxi County), 云阳县 (Yunyang County), 城口县 (Chengkou County)
2020 population: 2,722,514

#Chongqing-2: 开州区 (Kaizhou District), 万州区 (Wanzhou District), 梁平区 (Liangping District)
2020 population: 3,413,070

#Chongqing-3: 秀山土家族苗族自治县 (Xiushan County), 酉阳土家族苗族自治县 (Youyang County), 黔江区 (Qianjiang District), 彭水苗族土家族自治县 (Pengshui County), 武隆区 (Wulong District), 涪陵区 (Fuling District)
2020 population: 3,593,176

#Chongqing-4: 石柱土家族自治县 (Shizhu County), 忠县 (Zhong County), 丰都县 (Fengdu County), 垫江县 (Dianjiang County), 长寿区 (Changshou County)
2020 population: 3,011,005

Chongqing-5: 南川区 (Nanchuan District), 綦江区 (Qijiang District), 巴南区 (Banan District)
2020 population: 2,762,552

Chongqing-6: 南岸区 (Nanan District), 九龙坡区 (Jiulongpo District), 大渡口区 (Dadukou District)
2020 population: 3,146,364

Chongqing-7: 江北区 (Jiangbei District), 渝中区 (Yuzhong District), 渝北区 (Yubei Distriect)
2010 population: 3,706,010

Chongqing-8: 沙坪坝区 (Shapingba District), 璧山区 (Bishan District), 北碚区 (Beibei District)
2010 population: 3,068,254

8##Chongqing-9: 江津区 (Jiangjin District), 永川区 (Yongchuan District), 荣昌区 (Rongchang District)
2010 population: 3,177,484

9##Chongqing-10: 合川区 (Hechuan District), 铜梁区 (Tongliang District), 潼南区 (Tongnan District), 大足区 (Dazu District)
2010 population: 3,453,730

[Ragnaroni]

Dude this is wild af and I love it! Keep up the great work!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fujian-11 was just within bounds in 2010. Population in 厦门市 (Xiamen City) jumped from 3,531,347 in 2010 to 5,163,970 in 2020.
Fujian-11 is guaranteed to change and the new seat in Fujian is practically guaranteed to take in parts of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dude this is wild af and I love it! Keep up the great work!

Thank you for the kind words!

[Ragnaroni]

Dude this is wild af and I love it! Keep up the great work!

Thank you for the kind words!

Well as long as you make sure that Xi wins all of them, you will be spared! 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

#Fujian-1: 南平市 (Nanping City)
2020 population: 2,680,645

#Fujian-2: 宁德市 (Ningde City)
2010 population: 3,146,789

Fujian-3: 三明市 (Sanming City), 闽清县 (Minxing County), 闽侯县 (Minhou County)
2010 population: 3,730,831

#Fujian-4: 平潭县 (Pingtan County), 福清市 (Fuqing City), 长乐区 (Changle District), 马尾区 (Mawei District), 连江县 (Lianjiang County), 罗源县 (Luoyuan County)
2010 population: 3,751,996

Fujian-5: 晋安区 (Jinan District), 鼓楼区 (Gulou District), 台江区 (Taijiang District), 仓山区 (Cangshan District)
2010 population: 3,013,675

#Fujian-6: 龙岩市 (Longyan City)
2010 population: 2,723,637

Fujian-7: 莆田市 (Putian City), 永泰县 (Yongtai County)
2010 population: 3,491,930

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fujian-8: 德化县 (Dehua County), 永春县 (Yongchun County), 安溪县 (Anxi County), 南安市 (Nanan City)
2010 population: 3,275,792

Fujian-9: 泉港区 (Quangong District), 惠安县 (Huian County), 洛江区 (Luojiang District), 丰泽区 (Fengze District), 南安市 (Nanan City), 鲤城区 (Licheng District)
2010 population: 2,759,012

Fujian-10: 石狮市 (Shishi City), 晋江市 (Jinjiang City)
2010 population: 2,747,481

Fujian-11: 思明区 (Siming District), 湖里区 (Huli District), 翔安区 (Xiangan District), 同安区 (Tongan District)
2010 population: 3,544,464

Fujian-12: 长泰县 (Changtai County), 华安县 (Huaan County), 龙文区 (Longwen District), 南靖县 (Nanjing County), 集美区 (Jimei District), 海沧区 (Haicang District)
2020 population: 3,227,219

12##Fujian-13: 龙海市 (Longhai City), 平和县 (Pinghe City), 漳浦县 (Zhangpu County), 云霄县 (Yunxiao County), 诏安县 (Zhaoan County), 东山县 (Dongshan County)
2010 population: 3,446,615



5/13 unchanged

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

陇南市 (Longnan City) drops from 2,567,718 in 2010 to 2,407,272 in 2020. Though Gansu lost population, Longnan lost population at a faster rate than the province as a whole and can no longer have a seat all to itself, since it falls just below the +/-20% threshold.
Gansu-8 is likely to expand, taking 甘南藏族自治州 (Gannan Prefecture) in order to avoid adding a county split, forcing Gansu-6 to expand into 兰州市 (Lanzhou City), which has grown and cannot have just one seat nested within it anymore anyway.
Gansu-3 probably loses up to 60 or 70% of its land area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

#Gansu-1: 酒泉市 (Jiuquan City), 嘉峪关市 (Jiayuguan City), 张掖市 (Zhangye City), 金昌市 (Jinchang City)
2020 population: 2,937,411

#Gansu-2: 武威市 (Wuwei City), 白银市 (Baiyin City)
2020 population: 2,977,065

Gansu-3: 榆中县 (Yuzhong County), 城关区 (Chengguan District), 七里河区 (Qilihe District), 安宁区 (Anning District)
2020 population: 3,109,735

#Gansu-4: 庆阳市 (Qingyang City), 泾川县 (Jingchuan County), 灵台县 (Lingtai City), 崆峒区 (Kongtong District), 崇信县 (Chongxin County), 华亭市 (Huating City)
2020 population: 3,327,002

Gansu-5: 临夏回族自治州 (Linxia Prefecture), 西固区 (Xigu District), 红古区 (Honggu District), 永登县 (Yongdeng County), 兰州新区 (Lanzhou District), 皋兰县 (Gaolan County)
2020 population: 3,359,461

5##Gansu-6: 定西市 (Dingxi City), 静宁县 (Jingning County), 庄浪县 (Zhuanglang County)
2020 population: 3,225,418

#Gansu-7: 天水市 (Tianshui City)
2020 population: 2,984,659

Gansu-8: 陇南市 (Longnan City), 甘南藏族自治州 (Gannan Prefecture)
2020 population: 3,099,080


5/8 unchanged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Guangdong-1: 潮州市 (Chaozhou City), 大埔县 (Dabu County), 丰顺县 (Fengshun County)
2020 population: 3,378,066

Guangdong-2: 澄海区 (Chenghai District), 南澳县 (Nanao County), 龙湖区 (Longhu District), 金平区 (Jinping District), 濠江区 (Haojiang District)
2020 population: 2,616,117

Guangdong-3: 潮阳区 (Chaoyang District), 潮南区 (Chaonan District)
2020 population: 2,885,914

Guangdong-4: 梅县区 (Meixian District), 梅江区 (Meijiang District), 蕉岭县 (Jiaoling County), 平远县 (Pingyuan County), 兴宁市 (Xingning City), 五华县 (Wuhua County)
2020 population: 3,063,560

Guangdong-5: 榕城区 (Rongcheng District), 揭东区 (Jiedong District), 揭西县 (Jiexi County), 南溪镇 (Nanxi Town), 广太镇 (Guangtai Town), 洪阳镇 (Hongyang Town), 赤岗镇 (Chigang Town)
2020 population: precise population unclear

Guangdong-6: 惠来县 (Huilai County), all of 普宁市 (Puning City) less 南溪镇 (Nanxi Town), 广太镇 (Guangtai Town), 洪阳镇 (Hongyang Town), 赤岗镇 (Chigang Town)
2020 population: precise population unclear

Guangdong-7: 汕尾市 (Shanwei City)
2020 population: 2,738,482

Guangdong-8: 河源市 (Heyuan City)
2020 population: 2,837,686