Justin Trudeau vs. Andrew Scheer in the US: who would win?

[King of Kensington]

Let's say Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer are imposed on the US electorate a year or two ago.

[EastwoodS]

Schreer probably takes 60-65% of the vote as a Canadian Tory

[mileslunn]

Probably Andrew Scheer with around 52-53%, but that is on caveat that run on same platform.  Scheer being in US would probably run on a much more right wing than he did.  For example he would probably promise to outlaw abortion or severely restrict it which would be political suicide in Canada.  Trudeau by contrast would probably be more centrist and not as left wing as he has been in Canada.

[EastwoodS]

Probably Andrew Scheer with around 52-53%, but that is on caveat that run on same platform.  Scheer being in US would probably run on a much more right wing than he did.  For example he would probably promise to outlaw abortion or severely restrict it which would be political suicide in Canada.  Trudeau by contrast would probably be more centrist and not as left wing as he has been in Canada.

Screer with his stances now would be a moderate Democrat or maybe a liberal Republican, Trudeau would definitely be on the more left wing of the Democrats, I’d say Screer wins a lot more with his stances as they are. The reason the GOP struggles is bc they have toxic branding not because there’s a lack of “center right” voters.

[mileslunn]

Probably Andrew Scheer with around 52-53%, but that is on caveat that run on same platform.  Scheer being in US would probably run on a much more right wing than he did.  For example he would probably promise to outlaw abortion or severely restrict it which would be political suicide in Canada.  Trudeau by contrast would probably be more centrist and not as left wing as he has been in Canada.

Screer with his stances now would be a moderate Democrat or maybe a liberal Republican, Trudeau would definitely be on the more left wing of the Democrats, I’d say Screer wins a lot more with his stances as they are. The reason the GOP struggles is bc they have toxic branding not because there’s a lack of “center right” voters.

That assumes they would not adjust their stances.  Scheer much like Harper is more right wing than he ran as and watered down his ideas in order to be electable.  In US, he would run on his true principles.  Trudeau yes is definitely more to left, but probably comparable to Elizabeth Warren so left of Biden but not as left wing as Bernie Sanders. 

I think in US, country is quite polarized so even a moderate Tory couldn't get 60%.  Unlike in past center is really shrinking so while being moderate may mean winning while more right wing losing, we are talking at margins.  Landslides like 1964, 1972, and 1984 are things of the past and won't happen in today's environment irrespective of candidates and viewpoints.

[2952-0-0]

This seems like Pete Buttegieg vs. Mike Pence. One's a vaguely left-leaning centrist with a pretty face, who tries too hard to be woke. The other is a generic religious right empty suit with the charisma of a mailbox.

Trudeau won't be as successful as Biden in convincing the hard left Democrats, due to his insincere wokeness and the lack of a hated opponent. Scheer will be excellent for the religious right, do somewhat better than Trump in wealthy suburbs, but can't win the WWC vote. Like him or not, Trudeau is an excellent retail campaigner. Scheer has the political acumen of a cardboard box. I give the odds to Trudeau, with a PV/EV and turnout similar to 2012.

[CumbrianLefty]

yes, whatever else you think of him Trudeau is a much *better* politician than Scheer.

[King of Kensington]

Here's an outline of the Conservative Party of Canada "mainstream":

"Big tent" on social issues and don't want to focus on it

Supports gun owners rights but doesn't go overboard in the rhetoric

Accepts climate change is happening (though unclear if they think it's primarily human-caused or not) but enthusiastically supports all resource projects

Very pro-military

Very pro-Israel

Anti-cancel culture/wokeness/liberal media etc.

Very pro-"legal" immigration, particularly economic immigration and puts a lot of outreach into winning over culturally conservative immigrant/minority communities

[Comrade Funk]

The better looking one. People STILL overrate the "Democrats would be conservative" in blank country. Mostly coming from people outside here.

[mileslunn]

The better looking one. People STILL overrate the "Democrats would be conservative" in blank country. Mostly coming from people outside here.

In Canada, Democrats would be like NDP, Liberals, and former Progressive Conservatives uniting against Reform party pre-merger for comparison.  Someone like Manchin or Gottenheimer would be like a typical former Progressive Conservative.  Pelosi, Schumer, and Warren a Trudeau Liberal while Biden more of a Martin/Chretien type and same with the Clintons.  AOC and Bernie Sanders would probably be NDP supporters if in Canada.  On Republican side a few like Kasich or Flake would probably be old PC types, but most have left the party of this variety.  Scheer on spectrum comparable to Romney, Mike DeWine, or John McCain, not Trump.   Derek Sloan, Randy Hillier, or Maxime Bernier would be more your Trump like politicians north of the border.

[Derpist]

I mean, Scheer won the popular vote and the right-of-center vote is much better distributed in the US then Canada.

[King of Kensington]

Derek Sloan, Randy Hillier, or Maxime Bernier would be more your Trump like politicians north of the border.

All of whom are no longer Tories.  However there are some Conservative backbenchers in this camp too, like Cheryl Gallant. 

[King of Kensington]

The better looking one. People STILL overrate the "Democrats would be conservative" in blank country. Mostly coming from people outside here.

The most optimistic post here about Scheer's chances came from a poster from Kentucky.

[EastwoodS]

The better looking one. People STILL overrate the "Democrats would be conservative" in blank country. Mostly coming from people outside here.

Not necessarily conservative, definitely probably to the right of a lot of countries center left parties though.

[Samof94]

Derek Sloan, Randy Hillier, or Maxime Bernier would be more your Trump like politicians north of the border.

All of whom are no longer Tories.  However there are some Conservative backbenchers in this camp too, like Cheryl Gallant. 

I just read about her and she’s like Ted Cruz.

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

I mean, as much as we can look at demographic fit and ideology, Justin Trudeau is simply far more charismatic and attractive. He'd probably win in most places based on this.

[King of Kensington]

US is very polarized, and it's hard to know where the fault line lies for rejection of any conservatism period lies.  Not sure many who voted Democrat line up with Canadian Conservative mainstream, probably not a lot.

In Canada the more moderate PCs and more ideological Canadian Alliance merged, and it was the Alliance that was the stronger partner (Stephen Harper was the last Alliance leader, then he won the leadership of the new Conservative Party of Canada).  It seems like most PCs did go along with it (outside Atlantic Canada at least), but the traditional PC constituency has evaporated so I think the decline of the Conservatives since 2015 has more to do with demographic changes (millennials, diversity etc.) than with old PCs becoming Liberals (also Trudeau is more on the left of the Liberal Party, and hence little appeal to the disaffected ex-PC really). 

[Independents for Nihilism]

Good question. In what wound up being something of a portent for 2020, Scheer lost the suburbs (i.e. southern Ontario) while racking up massive margins in Conservative strongholds. Projecting that onto the US, I think it's fair to say that without the aggravating factors of competing with the NDP, or literally anything to do with Quebec, Trudeau would eke out a win in the midwest unless his (somewhat overblown) "woke rhetoric" proves to be too much south of 49'. It's possible that Scheer would have won the popular vote though, if he won Texas by double digits and held Florida and Arizona, but only lost Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a fraction of a percent each.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Both Trudeau and Scheer would be more right wing if they ran in the US, come on now. The only way Scheer would get the GOP nomination would be if he really threw meat to the base, he would never get the nod with a CPC-style platform. Trudeau would also have to soften up his progressive rhetoric, or else he would get caught in a Kamala Harris trap (too left wing for centrist democrats, not left wing enough for Bernie types)

[King of Kensington]

If they had a vote in the US, I'm sure both Harper and Scheer would have voted for Trump.  O'Toole probably Biden. 

[mileslunn]

If they had a vote in the US, I'm sure both Harper and Scheer would have voted for Trump.  O'Toole probably Biden. 

I think Harper would have done a write-in much like George W. Bush did.  He was more like him than Trump although I think he would have voted GOP down ballot.  Whereas O'Toole only would have voted for more moderate GOP types.  I am guessing probably would have supported Kasich in 2016 primary while Scheer probably Cruz and Harper probably Rubio. 

[King of Kensington]

Harper doesn't seem moved by appeals to "decency" and so on.  Unless he's sympathetic to Bolton or something.

He's a think tank conservative basically.  Trump wouldn't be his first choice, but would given that he seemed to get on with Orban, would accept him as the conservative choice.

[2952-0-0]

Harper doesn't seem moved by appeals to "decency" and so on.  Unless he's sympathetic to Bolton or something.

He's a think tank conservative basically.  Trump wouldn't be his first choice, but would given that he seemed to get on with Orban, would accept him as the conservative choice.

Harper was openly kissing Trump's behind, including visiting the White House when Canada was engaged in a trade war with the US, and openly advocating that Canada should just take whatever deal is offered.

[King of Kensington]

Indeed

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/why-does-stephen-harper-have-trumps-back/

[SnowLabrador]

Scheer. Trudeau would be considered too left-wing for supporting universal health care. Sad, but true.