AK - Change Research/314 Action Fund: Tshibaka +14 over Gross, Murkowski 3rd, Tshibaka leads w/ RCV

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Alaska-May-2021-Survey-Methodology.pdf

May 22-25
1023 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Change Research's Twitter account lists a series of polls.

Four-way runoff:
Kelly Tshibaka (R) 39
Al Gross (D) 25
Lisa Murkowski (R) 19
John Wayne Howe (Alaska Independence) 4
Would not vote 1
Undecided 12

With RCV, excluding undecideds:
Tshibaka (R) 54
Gross (D) 46

[MT Treasurer]

The theory that RCV will magically safe Murkowski presupposes that there are enough Republicans who will rank her at all. It’s possible, but she’s in for a serious uphill battle.

[Xing]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

[Pink Panther]

Even though this is early and the polling industry is probably broken for awhile, this helps show how much of a wild card RCV is, especially for Alaska. I have always had issues ranking Alaska due to this, but the GOP should hold on in this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna win AK with Biden stopping oil drilling in AK

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

What’s Mark Begich up to these days?

[TML]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

What’s Mark Begich up to these days?

He would be a retread/has-been and that might not be the best kind of candidate to run in this political environment.

[GALeftist]

This poll seems to be suggesting that I not sleep on Al Gross

[compucomp]

Nate Cohn has suggested that strategic voting may be in order here and that Democrats may want to abandon their candidate and support Murkowski. The results indicate that if Murkowski is eliminated in third place, enough of her voters will rank Tshibaka over Gross to give Tshibaka the victory, while if Murkowski were in second place she would likely win the runoff.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1402372438797828096

[Mr. Smith]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

Hegar and C-ham don't agree.

Come to think of it, it seems like only Bullock and Greenfield fit that description of the high profile ones. The rest of 'em did rather negligible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

Hegar and C-ham don't agree.

Come to think of it, it seems like only Bullock and Greenfield fit that description of the high profile ones. The rest of 'em did rather negligible.

We lost all those states due to big oil and Keystone pipeline, we are on a calamity course between droughts in CA OR, NV and AZ and oil drilling in AK, MT and LA and TX and coal in OH and WVA

That's why Manchin needs to relent and pass DC Statehood

[MT Treasurer]

Nate Cohn has suggested that strategic voting may be in order here and that Democrats may want to abandon their candidate and support Murkowski. The results indicate that if Murkowski is eliminated in third place, enough of her voters will rank Tshibaka over Gross to give Tshibaka the victory, while if Murkowski were in second place she would likely win the runoff.

Murkowski being seen as the de-facto D candidate like Al Gross will surely help her with her base problem.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Cohn has suggested that strategic voting may be in order here and that Democrats may want to abandon their candidate and support Murkowski. The results indicate that if Murkowski is eliminated in third place, enough of her voters will rank Tshibaka over Gross to give Tshibaka the victory, while if Murkowski were in second place she would likely win the runoff.

Murkowski being seen as the de-facto D candidate like Al Gross will surely help her with her base problem.

Kelly is gonna be the next Senator, Murkowski ran in 2016 off the back of a Moderate R Runnings as a check on Hillary and as a write in, and she ran against Joe Miller not an Established figure like Kelly

[NewYorkExpress]

Murkowski will be lucky to even finish fourth.

I expect at least another two to three Republicans to enter the race this summer.

[Devils30]

Murkowski might honestly be better just running as an independent who caucuses with Dems. Alaska is competitive enough she can win with Dems, Indies and like 20% of Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murkowski might honestly be better just running as an independent who caucuses with Dems. Alaska is competitive enough she can win with Dems, Indies and like 20% of Rs

She said she is unlikely to become a Dem since her father Frank is advisor her not to since he was a long time R living in Seattle but Lisa is Done

[Xing]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

Hegar and C-ham don't agree.

Come to think of it, it seems like only Bullock and Greenfield fit that description of the high profile ones. The rest of 'em did rather negligible.

As much as Bollier, Harrison, and McGrift underperformed expectations, they at least overperformed Biden in those states. I wouldn't really put NC in the same category, since it's not as "red" as the other states.

[OneJ]

Is Gross really the best Democrats can do? Not that this race is winnable in a year like 2022, but the fact that he actually underperformed Biden (turned a "sleeper" race into an absolute "snoozefest"), while other red state Democratic candidates managed to at least overperform Biden by a bit shows he's not the guy for the job. ]

Hegar and C-ham don't agree.

Come to think of it, it seems like only Bullock and Greenfield fit that description of the high profile ones. The rest of 'em did rather negligible.

As much as Bollier, Harrison, and McGrift underperformed expectations, they at least overperformed Biden in those states. I wouldn't really put NC in the same category, since it's not as "red" as the other states.

And don't forget about Espy (although I know the point of this is focusing on higher profile races).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Murkowski might honestly be better just running as an independent who caucuses with Dems. Alaska is competitive enough she can win with Dems, Indies and like 20% of Rs

The chances of her switching are extremely low, BUT it can’t hurt to try. If Manchin actually does get to a point where he’s blocking bills that the entire Caucus supports then offering her Energy Committee Chair may be a play that Biden & Schumer should look at.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Murkowski might honestly be better just running as an independent who caucuses with Dems. Alaska is competitive enough she can win with Dems, Indies and like 20% of Rs

The chances of her switching are extremely low, BUT it can’t hurt to try. If Manchin actually does get to a point where he’s blocking bills that the entire Caucus supports then offering her Energy Committee Chair may be a play that Biden & Schumer should look at.

The last thing that the Democratic caucus needs is someone else as spineless as Manchin on environmental issues, from a state reliant on oil no less, let alone chairing a committee where those policies would be extremely influential.

Murkowski's still a cut above most Senate Republicans, but I think that an opposition party throwing itself behind her would be embarrassing and quite possibly backfire. Alaskan politics are still weird, but nationalization has been eating into it steadily as with the rest of the country, and too many people think that another Bill Walker can come from anywhere.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe Gross can win, he is Jewish just like Mandel and Grietans, but Mandel may not win, Grietans is a shoe in, wave insurence

54/46 isn't that bad in this early state, Sullivan had a high Approvals that's why he defeated Gross last time

[Ferguson97]

I guess it makes sense, in an era of hyper partisanship, she's trying to play the moderate.

[S019]

Maybe Gross can win, he is Jewish just like Mandel and Grietans, but Mandel may not win, Grietans is a shoe in, wave insurence

54/46 isn't that bad in this early state, Sullivan had a high Approvals that's why he defeated Gross last time

What does this even mean? You come off as at least somewhat anti-Semitic here. Also the examples that you chose such as "Mandel" and "Greitens" really help to clear up your intentions. There are many other different examples of Jewish politicians, and I really question why you chose those two. Between this and some of your ancestry takes, etc., I've become pretty convinced that you're a virulent bigot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe Gross can win, he is Jewish just like Mandel and Grietans, but Mandel may not win, Grietans is a shoe in, wave insurence

54/46 isn't that bad in this early state, Sullivan had a high Approvals that's why he defeated Gross last time

What does this even mean? You come off as at least somewhat anti-Semitic here. Also the examples that you chose such as "Mandel" and "Greitens" really help to clear up your intentions. There are many other different examples of Jewish politicians, and I really question why you chose those two. Between this and some of your ancestry takes, etc., I've become pretty convinced that you're a virulent bigot.

No, this post was made so long ago, really weeks old already, it's June 19th 10 days old

Josh Mandel did poorly in 2012 against Brown and was tied with Ryan in the only OH poll on we have, assuming he is gonna win by a landslide, just because Trump won by 9 pts like R takes on this forum is silly

Gross is running this yr against Trump Kelly and Trump is an Insurrectionists, Gross stand a much better chance than running against Sullivan whom is beloved by D's and Rs

Kunce is a decorated Vet like Mandel is, he shouldn't be dismissed

I have in my signature Feliz Frankfurter was my role models whom voted for Brown whom was Jewish and desegregation of schools

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So with undecideds, that’s 47 to 40 in the RCV.