After the Chaos: A 2024 election game (gameplay thread)

[GoTfan]

Turn one: August 1-14, 2023


The 2024 electoral vote counts in each state [credit: Wikimedia Commons]

Race on to succeed Biden

As we roll into August, the Presidential election has begun to heat up. With Biden making the decision not to seek a second term, both parties once again find themselves holding at least nominally open primaries. The 2022 midterms were better than expected for the Democrats, who while losing their House majority, held onto a 50-50 Senate, with Raphael Warnock being defeated in Georgia but John Fetterman winning in Pennsylvania. Biden's last two years in office have thus been marred by Congressional gridlock, and a notable failure in getting the public option through.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Harris is seen as the Democratic standard-bearer, having enjoyed a meteoric rise in federal politics. Despite being the unquestioned frontrunner, she faces three diverse challengers. Former First Lady Michelle Obama is reportedly mulling a run, despite her previous amivalence to politics. Rounding out the Democratic field are two noted progressives; Tammy Baldwin, the Wisonsinite with two tough Senate campaigns under her belt, and Sherrod Brown, the populist Senate veteran from Ohio. It is considered likely that all three will run to Harris's left.

For the Republicans, the term 'nominally open' has taken on new meaning. Former President Donald Trump is considered likely to seek a second term, despite the proceeding legal case in New York. Trump's support in the GOP, particularly among his right-wing fanbase, remains high, and he is thus considered almost unbeatable. Only one obstacle stands in his way: Larry Hogan. The moderate former Maryland governor is reportedly planning to announce his candidacy soon, as he attempts to mount what many describe as a quixotic run at the nomination.

Primary polls

Democrats

Vice President Harris: 57.9%

Former First Lady Obama: 21.8%

Senator Brown: 11.4%

Senator Baldwin: 8.9%

Republicans

Former President Trump: 80.3%

Former Governor Hogan: 19.7%

New York case approaches end

Today comes reports that after two years of proceedings, much of it criminal, the legal case against the Trump Organization in New York is reportedly nearing its conclusion. The case, opened into various projects of the Trump Organization, such as a push to buy Buffalo Bills, became a criminal case in mid-2021 as per public comments made by the state Attorney-General Letitia James. The former President and his associates have remained steadfast in declaring the process to be politically motivated, and it has not impacted his ratings with the GOP base

Bernie Sanders: "This will be my last term"

Bernie Sanders has announced his retirment from politics at the end of his current term in the Senate. His lengthy political career has spanned eight years as Burlington Mayor, fourteen years as a US Representative, and eighteen years as a US Senator. The self-described democratic socialist mounted two successive presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020, and despite losing the nomination in both cases, has been credited with reviving the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Notes:

-72 hours for this turn

-Use your time wisely!

-There will be a debate this turn for both parties. Attendance is not mandatory but is recommended

[GoTfan]

First Primary Debates

Democratic debate

Venue: Stegeman Coliseum, University of Georgia

Date: August 11 2023

Moderator: Lester Holt


[credit: Wikimedia Commons]

Questions:

Despite a vast popular vote victory in 2020, Joe Biden was only able to win the presidency based on a few thousand votes from swing states. Do you believe it is time for the electoral college to be phased out?

The Senate filibuster remains intact and is considered one of the reasons President Biden wasn't able to get as much as he'd like done before the midterms. Should the filibuster be abolished?

Regardless of who it may be, do you pledge to support the eventual nominee?

To Harris: Vice President Harris, some have argued that you would be a weak nominee and easy for the Republican nominee to attack as a far-left liberal. How do you respond?

To Obama: Mrs Obama, you are the only candidate on this stage to have never served in elected office, sparking questions about your experience and ability to get things done with a Republican House. Will this lack of experience impact your ability to serve as an executive?

To Brown: Senator Brown, there is a popular conception that you are only contesting the presidential nomination because of a lack of certainty as to whether you can hold onto your Senate seat. How do you respond to these accusations?

To Baldwin: Senator Baldwin, in 2018, you cosponsored the Reward Work Act, which proposed guaranteeing the right of workers in listed companies to elect one-third of its board members. Does this represent government overreach in effectively forcing these companies to set aside seats for employees?

Republican debate

Venue: Ronald Reagan Presiential Library, California

Date: August 13, 2023

Moderator: Chris Wallace

The Democratic Party has increased its strength in many southern states in recent years, with both Georgia and Arizona becoming swing states and some have suggested that Texas is up for grabs this year. What is your plan to win these traditionally Republican states?

In recent years, we have seen elected members of the Republican Party, such as Marjorie Taylor-Greene, openly harass Democratic officials and court support of far-right white supremacist groups. Are you both willing to say tonight that you condemn and disavow these groups and the harassment of Democratic officials?

It is likely that the Senate filibuster will remain just as much a hurdle to a Republican presidency as a Democratic one. How do you plan to work with a potentially hostile Democratic party who will likely attempt to use it to block legislation?

To Trump: Mr President, news has come out today that the legal case against the Trump Organization is reportedly nearing its conclusion. Do you still believe that this case is nothing more that New York Democrats playing politics?

To Hogan: Governor, you previously supported both impeachments of President Trump in your time in office. How would you win over the president's supporters if you won the nomination?

[GoTfan]

Turn 2: August 16-31 2023


Biden begins hitting the trail for 2023 elections
[credit: USN News]

State of the Campaign

The first debates in both parties' primaries were held in the past week and the winners of the debate were clear. Vice President Harris and Former President Trump both had excellent nights, solidifying their status as the frontrunners for their party's nominations. Other solid performances came from both First Lady Obama and Senator Baldwin in the Democratic debate, while Brown however was viewed as giving overly brief answers. Trump, surprisingly, was the only Republican candidate to show up for his party's debate, so it almost took the form of a town hall

The story from the opening of the campaign has been how the various Democratic candidates have positioned themselves. Harris, as expected, is attempting to position herself as Biden's natural successor, and benefits heavily from her incumbency as the Vice President and the insitutional support that goes with it. She does face a heavy contest from Obama however, whose husband has been reportedly leaning on his old contacts within the party; many however remain hesitant to support someone with no previous experience. Brown is positioning himself as the friend of the worker with the endorsement of the AFL-CIO, while Baldwin is, expectedly, taking the banner of the party's progressive wing forward.

Primary polls

Democrats

Vice President Harris: 58%

Former First Lady Obama: 22%

Senator Brown: 10.5 %

Senator Baldwin 9.5%

Republicans

Former President Trump: 80.9%

Former Governor Hogan: 19.1%

Lousiana, Kentucky hotly contested

With three guvernatorial elections being here, an interesting situation has developed in both Kentucky and Lousiana, both of which are turning out to be closely contested races. In Louisiana, the Democrats are mounting a united effort to hold the governor's mansion around former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, while the Republicans have two notable candidates in Attorney-General Jeff landry, and Lieutenant Governor Bill Nungesser.Owing to the Jungle primary system, the general election has been set for October 12, with the runoff to come a month later.

In Kentucky, Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear is facing a rematch agaisnt former governor Matt Bevin, who campaigned fr the Republican nomination early. Beshear has had a largely successful first term, governing as a moderate Democrat who anaged to negotiate a pay rise for teachers in the state.

Louisiana gubernatorial poll:

Landrieu: 38.9%
Landry: 31.9%
Nungesser: 25.7
Others: 3.5%

Kentucky gubernatorial poll

Beshear (inc.): 51.7%
Bevin: 47.4%
Others: 0.9%

[GoTfan]

Turn 3: September 1-14


[credit: Wikimedia Commons]

Greene in hot water again

Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has courted controversy once again this past week. Greene, at an endorsement rally for Matt Bevin in Kentucky, declared loudly that "We have to be ready to fight this one . . . these Democrats want to take away your rights, and we need to be ready to fight if Beshear wins."

During a speech on voting rights by Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, Greene repeatedly heckled and interrupted her, referring to Ocasio-Cortez as an "Anti-American communist." Things might have stopped there if she was not later caught on hot mic referring to The Squad as "Grubby terrorist-enablers . . . if they hate America so much, they need to go back where they came from."

Greene could not be reached for comment, but Minority Leader Pelosi, reportedly in her final Congressional term, condemned Greene's "Textbook racism" and called on Speaker McCarthy to do the same. McCarthy has yet to respond. Some member of the Democratic House caucus, such as Hakeem Jeffries, have expressed a concern that members of The Squad, in particular Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, may be targeted by extremists and called for increased security.

Primary polls

Democratic

Vice President Harris: 58.1%

Former First Lady Obama: 22.2%

Senator Brown: 10.1%

Senator Baldwin: 9.6%

Republicans

Former President Trump: 80.8%

Former Governor Hogan: 19.2%

Trump, Hogan draw battlelines in Louisiana

The gubernatorial race in Louisiana has become a microcosm of the larger battle within the Republican Party, as Trump an Hogan have endorsed separate candidates against Landrieu. As expected, Trump has thrown his support to Attorney-General Landry, while Hogan has endorsed Lieutenant Governor Nungesser. The campaign has become remarkably negative between the two me, with Nungesser hedging his argument on electability while Landry attempts to supercharge conservative turnout. Landrieu has benefited meanwhile from the unanimous support of state Democrats and the current Presidential candidates, as voters flock to him as a source of stability.

The race in Kentucky has largely remained static, while the race for the Mississippi governorship is as expected, essentially locked up for the Republicans.

Lousisiana gubernatorial polls:

Landrieu: 40.1%
Landry: 33.2%
Nungesser: 26.7%

Kentucky gubernatorial election

Beshear (inc.): 51.5%
Bevin: 48.1
Others: 0.4%

Mississippi gubernatrial election

Tate Reeves (inc): 57.7%
David Blount: 41.3%
Others: 1%

CNN to host Climate Town Hall on September 17th

Though a location is still to be set, CNN is once again hosting a Climate Crisis Town Hall for all Democratic candidates running for the nomination. Questions are likely to revolve around each candidate's plans to tackle climate change, with a particular focus on the renewable energy industry and environmental restoration

notes:

Interviews from last turn will be going up shortly. I already have interviews booked for this turn.

[GoTfan]

Interviews from Turn 2

(I am aware these are late. Recently started therapy so that's taking up a bit of time)

Don Lemon interviewing VP Harris (CNN)

Lemon: Joining us now is Vice President Kamala Harris, frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Madame Vice President, thank you for joining us.

Harris: Good to see you, Don.

Let's jump right in. Early in your 2020 campaign, you called for President Trump's social media accounts to be banned, which saw wide ridicule. Following the storming of the Capitol two years ago and the resultant bans on his account by social media companies that remain in effect, do you feel that you have been vindicated somewhat?

Harris: I just find it so disappointing that it took an insurrection on the United States Capitol in order for social media to act, we saw how divisive his nature was in the past and that's part of the reason I called for him to be banned was because we saw his behavior in front of us, so I'm glad they finally took action and I hope he stays banned, period.

The first 100 days of an administration are typically the most productive. What would be the priorities of the first 100 days of a Kamala Harris presidency?

COVID-19 was bought under control by the middle of 2022 worldwide, but many scientists are saying it's only a matter of time until the next major virus is discovered. What measures would your administration take to harden our health system against another epidemic?

Harris: Well first we need to work with our allies to prevent something like that happening again and that's what me and President Biden have been working so hard to do, while also ensuring that countres are transparent and open with the rest of the world so if something irregular is noted, we can get a handle on it before it gets out of control. And one of the things a Harris administration will do is implement a new pandemic guidebook for all future presidential administrations just like the Obama-Biden adminstration did before the previous administration came in and tore it all up, and say "Look, here are lessons learned in the past and here is what we should do in the future".

Some within the Democratic Party are voicing concerns that all potential nominees, including yourself, will lose swing voters in what one official described as a 'race to the far left'. What are your plans to win over swing voters in bellweathers like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?

Harris: Well, I am the only candidate in this race that has  defeated Donald Trump in a general election before and I intend to do it again, and look every Democratic candidate has in some part been integral to a winning campaign in the midwest, Tammy Baldwin won in Wisconsin, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, me and Joe Biden flipped 3 major states in the midwest while also laying claims in southern and western states, and ya know, Michelle's husband won these states in both of his campaigns. So let's focus on that.

But we also must address the hard truth that so many of the Americans that live in these pivotal battleground states feel left behind and forgotten by Washington and so that's why I'm running for President to lift up those voices and listen to their concerns because it is past time for us to start listening to the American people.

One final question, and more a personal one than anything, Senator Bernie Sanders has announced he will be retiring from politics at the end of his current term. Do you have any words on the legacy he leaves behind?

Harris: Aww, well Bernie is such a dear friend of mine and we still talk regularly or as much as we can and he has just been an avid fighter for as long as I have known him.

Ya know Bernie inspired so many young people to get involved in politics and to participate and make their voices heard and that was pivotal to our election victory in 2020 and that is a huge part of his legacy and although I am sad to see Bernie go I wish him all the best of luck in the future.

John Roberts interviewing Former President Trump (Fox News)

Roberts: With now is Former Presdient Donald Trump, running for a second term. Mr President, thanks for joining us.

Thank you for having me. It is great to be here with you.

Let's get started. You're facing aprimary challenge from Larry Hogan, who's from the party's moderate wing. Many of his supporters either did not endorse your re-election campaign in 2020, or like John Kasich, endorsed Joe Biden. How do you plan to win them back over to your side?

Look, people like John Kasich and Larry Hogan have never supported me. They would always much rather help the Democrats than backing me and my agenda. They are not true Republicans, and I am not looking for their votes in this election. However, their voters are a different question. These are people who above all want good governance. They want a strong economy, they want lower taxes, they want better healthcare, they want less crime, they want less illegal immigration, they want the US to be stronger on the world stage. And I will tell them to compare my record of success on all of these fronts with Joe Biden's and Kamala Harris's failures and their radical, socialist agenda that they would absolutely implement if they get the chance. I do not believe that these people would vote for a fanatically far left candidate who is more liberal than Bernie Sanders if they had known the truth, and I intend to make it clear between now and November 2024.

2020 was a turbulent year in American history, and the Presidential election in that year took several days to resolve. Do you still blieve that the 2020 election was rigged in favour of Joe Biden?

The 2020 election was absolutely a mess and so many states have had to deal with new challenges given the China virus. Some did it well, some did it not so well, and that  is very important to remember. That election did not have integrity and I do believe that with a different, fairer process, the result would have been very different. But the truth is, Joe Biden, whether I think legitimately or not, has been President in name only  for so long now, and his far left puppeteers have been ruining our country ever since. We have to accept that and work from there. I am very much focused on the future. We  Republicans will not let it happen again this time. And once I am elected, I will fight for great election integrity, on which I will release a great plan in a very short period of time.

Some polls have indicated you struggle against the Democratic candidates as many voters are still wary over the sotrming of the Capitol. Do you believe that these polls are accurate?

No, I do not. These polls, they are very fake. They were fake in 2016, they were even more fake in 2020 and I encourage all Republicans and conservatives to go out to vote in record numbers, even volunteer if they can and make these pollsters the laughing stock of the nation again. And I have a very important message to our viewers from Louisiana. I urge you to support the great conservative fighter, Jeff Landry, when you go to the polls on October 12th. He has my fullest support because he is a smart and capable person who will make Louisiana great again. He will be able to win the General Election and kick out the Democrats from the governorship of your state. So vote for Attorney General Jeff Landry, who has my strong support.

What would be the priority of the first 100 days of a second Trump administration?

We are going to do so much. My second Administration will be even better than my first one, that I can tell you. Our first priority will be to end the sluggish economy that Joe Biden has presided or you know, slept over. We are going to create so many jobs, like I did before the China virus, or even more so. We are also going to defend our great police officers, who have been under threat. We are going to end illegal immigration, maybe eradicate it, and start ending all endless wars. We are going to fight for congressional term limits, for enacting school choice and for ending all reliance with China. But most importantly, we are going, during my first 100 days, to restore confidence and pride of Americans in America. They are going to feel like citizens of the greatest country on Earth again.

At an event in 2021, your former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn was caught on camera saying "Why can't what hapened in Myanmar happen here?" In reference to the military coup against Aung Saan Suu Kyi. What is your response?

Look, Mike Flynn is a great guy and an American patriot, and I will never stop defending him from all of the leftist hoaxes against him. However, I do not seek to lead a military coup. We are not Myanmar, we are the United States of America. I am going to fight to get back in office in a fair election, played by the rules, and we will make sure that this time it is fair. I would never join a coup but I do not even need to. Because the people support me now more than ever. They see what these Democrats have done to them and their country and their national pride. They would never want more of this disastrous Administration. The true Americans are going to vote in record numbers and we will win and make America great again, again.

[GoTfan]

Turn 4: September 15-30, 2023

Brown withdrawal shakes up race


[credit: Wikimedia Commons]

The withdrawal of Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown has shaken up the race for the Democratic nomination as now just three candidates vie for the nomination. The most obvious benficiary of the withdrawal has been Senator Baldwin, who received Brown's endorsement for the nomination and as a result, is being tentatively viewed as the candidate of the party's labour wing. The remainder of Brown's support has been evenly split among Harris and Obama.

The Republican primary meanwhile has seen little in the way of changing. Hogan has continued to advocate much for his moderate politics and is reportedly being talked of highly behind closed doors by The Lincoln Project. Trump on the other hand has continued to play to his base as he enjoys his dominating lead over the former Maryland governor.

Primary polls

Democratic

Vice President Harris: 59.2%

Former First Lady Obama: 24.2%

Senator Baldwin: 16.6%

Republican

Former President Trump: 80.5%

Former Governor Hogan: 19.6%

Louisiana turns into hotbed

The Louisiana gubernatorial election continues to be a showcase of the battle inside the Republican Party, as Landry and Nungesser continue to go negative on each other. The overall negativity from both Republican candidates reflects the ongoing contest between Trump and Hogan, and many voters as a result are flocking to Landrieu as a candidate above negativity. Once again, the former New Orleans Mayor has benefited from undivided Democratic support

The story of the races in Kentucky and Mississippi remains significantly less interesting. Beshear has held his narrow lead in the former while Reeves is cruising to an easy victory.

Lousiana gubernatorial election:

Landrieu: 41.1%
Landry: 32.6%
Nungesser: 26.3%

Kentucky gubernatorial election

Beshear (inc.): 51.7%
Bevin: 47.9%
Undecided: 0.4%

Mississippi gubernatorial election

Reeves (inc.): 57.9%
Blount: 41.1%

Manchin on Baldwin's bill: "I'll be voting no"

Joe Manchin has likely already sunk Senator Baldwin's bill to grant up to $50,000 in student loan forgiveness. He is likely joined by Kyrsten Sinema, who has also made herself known as a more conservative Democrat since entering office. Biden has commented that the pre-emptive decision is "Very disappointing." Privately however, many Democrats expressed skepticism that the bill would be able to pass the House.


Notes:

-Early state primary polls will begin being published next turn.

-Interview from last turn will be going up shortly

-CNN Climate Town Hall will be held this turn for Democratic candidates.

[GoTfan]

CNN Climate Crisis Town Hall

Date: September 17, 2023

Location: Arsht Center, Miami, Florida

Moderator: Anderson Cooper

"Hello and welcome to CNN's 2023 town hall on the climate crisis. Tonight's town hall is held in Miami, Florida, a place that has become one of the flashpoints of climate change in America. In the audience are 300 undecided voters selected at random. The town hall will be held back-to-back, with order decided by position in the polls. With that in mind, please welcome Vice President Kamala Harris!"


"Madame Vice President, my name is Thomas and I'm 18 years old. This will be my first election. There is a growing cynicism in people my age that going to college or finishing school will not mean much with the climate crisis. How do you plan to tackle this cynicism?

Ma'am, my name's Robert, and I'm a 54 year old coal miner from Kentucky. I'm not insensitive to the demands of environmentatlists, but it's my job that's going to be cut when the transition comes. How do you plan to ensure a just transition for those of us who work in the fossil fuel industry?"

Madame Vice President, my name's Lily, I'm 37 and an ecologist. From my understanding, some of the best methods to tackle the climate crisis come in the form of environmental restoration, in partiuclar the Great Green Wall projects currently underway in Africa and China. Would you support a similar plan in the United States?"

Thank you, Vice President Harris. Please welcome our next candidate, former First Lady of the United States Michelle Obama!

Mrs Obama, my name's Leah, I'm 41 and from Oklahoma. My state has arguably been hit hard by a refusal to embrace renewable energy and cotinued reliance on coal, gas and oil. What is your plan to expand our renewable energy sector all over the country?

"Madame First Lady, my name's Ethan, and I'm a 28 year old Miami native. Every day, my city sees the impact of climate change, not least because of sea level rise and flooding, not to mention the hurricanes that regularly hit Florida. What is your plan to help us better adapt and prepare for natural disasters caused by climate change?"

"Mrs Obama, I'm Samantha, 57 years old and from Ohio. My husband works in the steelmaking sector and he's become particularly excited about what's being referred to as 'green steel', a steelmaking method where the emissions from the manufacturing process are drastically cut by using hydrogen. China has already implemented this method nationwide; do you see a place for this method in the United States?"

And now, please give a warm welcome to our last candidate of the night, Senator Tammy Baldwin!

"Senator, my name's Eric, and I'm a 49 year old factory worker for GM in Michigan. The auto sector has taken a lot of blame for the current state of our environment, but I believe that it can also help fight it. How would you build on president Biden's plans to encourage a faster uptake in electric vehicles?"

"Senator Baldwin, I'm Jenna, a 30 year old climate scientist from California. There has been a growing perception that it is too late to avert catastrophic climate change, yet research does not bear this out, and I believe that much of the reason people believe this is media distortion of the facts. How would you encourage responsible reporting of climate change?"

"Senator, my name's Nicholas, and I'm a 42 year old former advertising executive. I left the business because of my superiors taking up more and more cases of greenwashing. This is something that is rampant across all sectors, as companies hire advertising and PR managers to present an environmentalist facade while continuing to damage the environment. How would you eliminate greenwashing from the United States?"

"Thank you to all our candidates and our audience. I'm Anderson Cooper and you've been watching CNN's climate crisis town hall."

[GoTfan]

Turn 5: October 1-15, 2023

Obama's comments hurting Democrats


[credit: wikimedia commons]

During the latter half of September, fomrer First Lady Michelle Obama made remarks referring to Former President Trump, including some comments that seemingly advocated for the former president's conviction and referencing the death sentence that exists for treason.

Obama's comments were blasted by politicians from all corners in both parties. Both Vice President Harris and Senator Baldwin, now competing for the nomination head-to-head, have distanced themselves from the comments, while Trump and his opponent for the Republican nomination, Larry Hogan, have both piled on the criticism. Downballot Republicans are meanwhile making hay with the issue, and the events have undoubtedly harmed Beshear and Landrieu's campaigns

Primary polls

Democrats

Vice President Harris: 65.8%

Senator Baldwin: 23.2%

Undecided: 11%

Republicans

Former President Trump: 80.6%

Former Governor Hogan: 19.5%

Louisiana goes to the polls

Louisiana will be holding its jungle primary this week. As always, a runoff has been schedued for November 12th in the event no one wins a simple majority in the first round of the primary. Currently, Landrieu and Landry are considered likely to head to the runoff election, as both of them attempt to carve out their own bases. Obama's comments have no doubt aided Landry and damaged Landrieu, who has attempted to de-nationalise the race and refocus it on issues in Louisiana.

Beshear has also distanced himself from Obama's comments, though the damage is less due to the fact that Beshear has been a relatively successful governor and enjoys the advantage of incumbency.

Louisiana gubernatorial poll:

Landrieu: 40.8%
Landry: 32.8%
Nungesser:26.4%

Kentucky gubernatorial poll

Beshear (inc.): 51.5%
Bevin: 48.3%
Undecided: 0.2%

Mississippi gubernatorial poll:

Reeves (inc): 58.2%
Blount: 40.9%

Afghan government forces collapse

Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, government forces have been putting up a valianet resistance to the Taliban's renewed attempt at taking over the country. Today, that resistance failed as Taliban forces ransacked the capital city of Kabul and executed numerous military officers and government officials on live television. The whereabouts of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani are unknown at this time.

Notes:

-As always, 72 hours

-Interviews will be going up posthaste. As some of you are aware, I had a very bad reaction to my flu shot and that put me out of commission for a while.

-First early state polls will go up with the interviews.

[GoTfan]

Turn 6: October 16-31, 2023

Trump becomes presumptive nominee


[credit: wikimedia commons]

With the withdrawal of former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Former president Donald Trump has become the presumptive Republican nominee for President for the third time in a row, the most since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

While Trump's supporters have been overjoyed at his success, many members of the Republican Party, who had staked their hopes on Hogan, have stated they will not be supporting Trump's attempt at re-election. Among them are John Kasich, noted for endorsing Biden in 2020, and Chris Sununu, an early supporter of Hogan's campaign. Both men have stated that they cannot in good conscience support Trump's campaign.

Despite reatining his penchant for political street-fighting, Trump's poll numbers against both Harris and Baldwin have hims as a major underdog. A snap poll conducted by CNN has Harris beating Trump 58%-42%, while Baldwin is leading Trump 55%-45%. Despite these numbers however, it is important to note that Trump's influence in the Republican Party remains obvious, and Democrats would be wise not to underestimate him

Primary polls

Democratic overall

Vice President Harris: 65.3%

Senator Baldwin: 25%

Undecided: 9.7%

Democratic Iowa

Vice President Harris: 61.4%

Senator Baldwin: 38.6%

Democratic New Hampshire

Vice President Harris: 63.1%

Senator Baldwin: 36.9%

Landrieu, Landry going to runoff

Mitch Landrieu and Jeff Landry are headed to Louisiana's gubernatorial runoff on November 12, following strong showings from both in the jungle primary. Landrieu emerged as the clear leader, taking 41% of the vote to Landry's 32.6%. The suspension of Hogan's campaign damaged Nungesser's candidacy, winning just 26% of the vote. Nungesser has notably remained silent on whether he will back Landry in the runoff, apparently having taken badly to the negative campaigning.

Early polls for the runoff indicate that Landrieu is the narrow favourite, with a major story being that 90% of black voters in the state are likely to support him, as well as many citizens in New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

The race in Kentucky meanwhile has tightened, while Reeves is considered safe to win in Mississippi

Louisiana gubernatrial runoff polls

Landrieu: 51.4%
Landry: 48.6%

Kentucky gubernatorial polls

Beshear (inc): 51.4%
Bevin: 48.6%

Mississippi gubernatorial polls:

Reeves (inc): 58.4%
Blount: 41.6%

Ghani surfaces in Karachi

Deposed Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has surfaced in Pakistan's largest city of Karachi, having managed to escape the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. He has openly blamed President Biden for the fall of Afghanistan, saying that the withdrawal of American troops was "Hopelesly premature."

Preident Biden meanwhile has promised military support to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan has in the past been notable for his support for the Afghan peace process, but has denounced the 'barbarity' of the Taliban takeover, and clearly stated that the Taliban have openly violated the peace process. He has since ordered Pakistani troops to the border. 

[GoTfan]

Turn 7: November 1-15

Larry Hogan endorses Landrieu!


[credit: wikimedia commons]

Former Maryland Governor and former Presidential candidate Larry Hogan has made waves with his recent actions, endorsing Mitch Landrieu for Governor of Louisiana and encouraging Republicans to at least consider Harris a viable option when faced with Trump. This has led to him almost being completely frozen out by the rest of the party, but a large section of moderates, notably Utah Senator Mitt Romney, have endorsed Landrieu as well.

The Former New Orleans Mayor has received a large bump in the polls as a result, and is considered the likely victor of the runoff on Novemeber 12. Harris meanwhile, due to the absence of Tammy Baldwin from the campaign trail, is being seen more and more as a viable candidate; being praised for her stateswoman-like response to the concerning situation in Pakistan.

Primary polls

Democratic overall

Vice President Harris: 68.4%

Senator Baldwin: 24.8 %

Undecided: 6.8%

Democratic Iowa

Viice President Harris: 61.9%

Senator Baldwin: 38.1%

Democratic New Hampshire

Vice President Harris: 63.5%

Senator Baldwin: 36.5%

Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi elect their governors

It's election week in America once more as the states of Louisiana, kentucky and Mississippi go to the polls for their gubernatorial elections. In Kentucky, the race is tight, but Beshear is predicted to pull off a narrow victory. Landrieu has benefited from Republican endorsements, but will no doubt face a close contest against Atoorney-General Landry. Only Tate Reeves is considered a lock at this point, leading his opponent David Blount by a wide margin.

Louisiana gubernatorial poll

Landrieu: 51.7%
Landry: 48.3%

Kentucky gubernatorial poll

Besehar (inc.): 51.2%

Bevin: 48.8%

Mississippi gubernatorial poll

Reeves (inc.): 58.5%
Blount: 41.5%




Shots fired at Khan

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan narrowly escaped an assassination attempt when a Taliban-affiliated gunman opened fire as Khan was being escorted to a military inspection. The gunman fired several shots before being eliminated by Pakistani soldiers. Defence Minister Pervez Khattak sustained a light wound while one of Khan's protection officers was wounded badly in the shoulder.

Khan has since sworn that Pakistan will not back down in the face of terrorist threats.

Notes:

-Finally managed to control my anxiety long enough to get the turn up. Due to my laxness, I'm extending this turn to 96 hours, or four days.