Would Scott Stringer have won the mayoral election if he wasn’t a sex pest?

[pikachu]

Question’s in the title basically. I think it’s fair to say that Stringer was probably a stringer candidate than everyone else who tried to claim the mantle of the NYC liberal-left and he was on a bit of a surge before the Jean Kim story, almost trying with Adams for second place in March polls. Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

[Real Texan Politics]

No, possible he could've surpassed Yang's numbers though.

[NewYorkExpress]

Probably not. I don't think New York City was going to elect another White Male Mayor.

Stringer probably should have in hindsight, hoped this blew over and attempted to primary Cuomo (someone's got to, and even though he's sexual harasser like Cuomo, at least he hasn't threatened to have anyone's career destroyed yet.)

[Karenthecomputer]

Probably not. He definitely would have taken first place votes away from Maya Wiley though.

[If my soul was made of stone]

If anything, Adams would've stood out much more against an opposition with more viable candidates with more in common with each other than him, while the opponents fought amongst themselves and screwed each other over with a lack of tactical voting.

[Lambsbread]

No, but he could've siphoned off more support from Wiley but he would've finished 3rd or 4th without the sex scandal. The final 2 would've been Adams and Garcia.

[KaiserDave]

Yes comfortably

Wiley and Garcia don’t become competitive candidates without Stringer’s implosion

[SInNYC]

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

The reality of D politics in NYC (and increasingly, the nation) is that its about assembling the appropriate mix of demographics, not the platform or competence. And in NYC, that does not help a person like Stringer - note BDB had an AA wife and his ads prominently featured Dante who was well well-spoken and looked AA.

Stringer's only chance was to get lots of 2nd choice voters, but Adams seems to have done well enough with 1st choice voters for that strategy to have failed.

[Meatball Ron]

I think he would have at least come in 2nd. As Kaiser said, Wiley/Garcia wouldn't have caught traction without the Stringer implosion, and I think Yang still would have imploded regardless.

I do think Adams probably still would have won due to the "demographics are destiny" argument that SInNYC made, but I think Stringer would have been able to capture both "woke" votes and establishment white votes in a way that Garcia or Wiley was not able to.

[pikachu]

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

So, I don’t think this is entirely true – the harassment allegations happened in late April, and at that point, he was clearly at least third place and occasionally tying for second in the first round. This was all pre-Yang collapse.

No, but he could've siphoned off more support from Wiley but he would've finished 3rd or 4th without the sex scandal. The final 2 would've been Adams and Garcia.

I don’t see how Garcia and Wiley’s surges can be disentangled from Stringer’s fall. Wiley’s surge only happened after she got the endorsements that led to the left consolidation around her, while Garcia’s was after the NYT endorsement. But Stringer pre-scandal already had those left endorsements (e.g. Bowman, Salazar, Brisport; maybe he gets AOC?) while he’s probably a much more natural fit for the NYT endorsement than Garcia was – he got it in 2013 for Comptroller and 2005 for Manhattan BP.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

I know it's presumptive, but they're barely done with first-round voting

[pikachu]

Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

I know it's presumptive, but they're barely done with first-round voting

Hey, I’ll be happy if I look like an idiot on this one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes, but it’d be close

[Tintrlvr]

I think very likely he would have won. He would have gotten the NYT endorsement instead of Garcia, which means Garcia languishes in irrelevance and gets 2% at the end. The vast majority of Garcia's vote goes to Stringer. In addition, Stringer's continued prominence in the race prevents a progressive consolidation around Wiley, so many people who voted for Wiley end up with Stringer also, and Wiley stays in the low double-digits instead of low 20s. Some Garcia voters in Staten Island and other non-Jewish white conservative enclaves splinter to other candidates, mainly Yang and Adams, but they aren't a large factor in Democratic primaries. And a small number of voters who went with Adams are equally comfortable with another establishment figure in Stringer and vote for him.

End result is something like:

Adams: 34%
Stringer: 31%
Wiley: 12%
Yang: 12%
McGuire: 3%
Morales: 2%
Garcia: 2%
Donovan: 2%


Stringer beats Adams by 3-4 points on Wiley and Yang transfers.

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

The reality of D politics in NYC (and increasingly, the nation) is that its about assembling the appropriate mix of demographics, not the platform or competence. And in NYC, that does not help a person like Stringer - note MDB had an AA wife and his ads prominently featured Dante who was well well-spoken and looked AA.

Stringer's only chance was to get lots of 2nd choice voters, but Adams seems to have done well enough with 1st choice voters for that strategy to have failed.

I disagree with this, mainly because Adams only got a little less than 32% of the vote. He will likely win in significant part of the vote exhaustion between the other candidates, not because he assembled a majority coalition. If forced to choose, which they weren't, almost certainly a majority of voters who voted would have chosen Garcia over Adams, and possibly Wiley over Adams as well (and maybe even Yang over Adams!) -- and, in this alternative universe, Stringer over Adams, too. Stringer's advantage in this scenario as compared to Garcia or Wiley is that he would have consolidated more first preferences, meaning he would be less dependent on transfers to overcome Adams. In the end, after preferences are allocated, recall that Adams is only likely to win by about 4-6 points (if Garcia ends up in the top two; I do think Wiley would probably lose by 10 or so). I think it's pretty unquestionable that Stringer would have overcome that deficit through being a bigger name, more known to establishment-leaning voters and more palatable to progressive voters.

[SInNYC]

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

So, I don’t think this is entirely true – the harassment allegations happened in late April, and at that point, he was clearly at least third place and occasionally tying for second in the first round. This was all pre-Yang collapse.

Technically true, but it wasnt close really - see pp 25-26 of the NY Mayor thread. One poll on Apr 15 had Yang at 24 and Adams/Stringer tied at 13 with Mcguire at 9 and Wiley at 7.  Another poll had Yang at 26, Adams at 13, Stringer at 11, Wiley at 10, and a couple at 7/6. So basically Yang was 1st and Stringer was towards the top of a far behind pack. I guess I just didnt see him catching fire as a first choice, even though I was strongly for Stringer then. And I suspect there was always going to be a lane for a female since most polls showed strong gender based 2nd choices.

[pikachu]

Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

I know it's presumptive, but they're barely done with first-round voting

Hey, I’ll be happy if I look like an idiot on this one.

Well I’m looking like an idiot.

Also seems clear the answer to the thread title is probably yes?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

I know it's presumptive, but they're barely done with first-round voting

Hey, I’ll be happy if I look like an idiot on this one.

Well I’m looking like an idiot.

Also seems clear the answer to the thread title is probably yes?

I don't think he definitely would've won, but it's at least plausible if not probable.

[LabourJersey]

Given that Garcia may manage to win the whole thing, or get maybe 48% in it doesn't pan out, I think it's pretty clear that Stringer would have won.

[Young Conservative]

I think some on the forum are underrating the odds that Stringer would have gotten the NYT endorsement and the AOC endorsement without the sex scandal...

[LabourJersey]

I think some on the forum are underrating the odds that Stringer would have gotten the NYT endorsement and the AOC endorsement without the sex scandal...

Not sure about AOC, but Stringer absolutely would have gotten the NYT endorsement, and probably quite a few other high profile endorsements too (Daily News, etc.)

[KaiserDave]

I think some on the forum are underrating the odds that Stringer would have gotten the NYT endorsement and the AOC endorsement without the sex scandal...

Ding ding

[Intell]

I think some on the forum are underrating the odds that Stringer would have gotten the NYT endorsement and the AOC endorsement without the sex scandal...

Not sure about AOC, but Stringer absolutely would have gotten the NYT endorsement, and probably quite a few other high profile endorsements too (Daily News, etc.)

AOC put Stringer as her #2, she certainly would've endorsed him if there wasn't a scandal.

[LabourJersey]

I think some on the forum are underrating the odds that Stringer would have gotten the NYT endorsement and the AOC endorsement without the sex scandal...

Not sure about AOC, but Stringer absolutely would have gotten the NYT endorsement, and probably quite a few other high profile endorsements too (Daily News, etc.)

AOC put Stringer as her #2, she certainly would've endorsed him if there wasn't a scandal.

Oh, I completely forgot about that. In that case then yeah, she'd probably would have endorsed him.