Hypothetical Senate primary: Kyrsten Sinema vs. Ruben Gallego?

[Blair]

Quite similar to the Arkansas democratic primary in 2010

[Schiff for Senate]

Simena would win.

In any event, Progressives would be better off trying to primary Feinstein, Menenedez and Carper instead.

Very true.

   In states like AZ, WV and MT, a primary challenge from the left is unhelpful because a.) it won't work and b.) if it somehow does, all it does is flip the seat Republican. Arizona is purple; it's possible a Democrat more liberal than Sinema may lose, and Montana and West Virginia are red seats (though Montana is bluer than people give it credit for; it voted for McCain by just 2% in 2008). A Democrat other than Jon Tester probably can't win over enough Montana Republicans - Steve Bullock's 2020 campaign proved that. And I guarantee that no Democrat other than Manchin can win in WV, which is why Jim Justice switched parties. Even Manchin, a very popular former governor, won by just 3% in 2018 thanks to Trump's interference after winning in a landslide in 2012.

  But California is solidly blue, and Feinstein is too old and out-of-touch. It's best she retires in 2024, or she may lose to another Democrat. Progressives should focus there. Menendez is corrupt and can easily be primaried - a challenger might even win if they have a solid background, like a representative (someone like Donald Norcross, Andy Kim, Josh Gottheimer, etc.). Carper also has the 'Feinstein problem': old and out-of-touch. Another possible race where progressives could try to primary is Mark Warner's senate seat.

So yeah, the problem with progressives like Paula Jean Swearingin is they're focusing on unwinnable races that will lead to a 'lose-lose': a centrist to moderate liberal deposed and replaced by a conservative Republican, and the progressive element being blamed for the loss and discredited. (Paula Jean Swearingin, who primaried Manchin in 2018, ran in 2020 and won the nomination, facing Republican incumbent Shelley Moore-Capito, and lost every single county in the state. If she had won the nomination in 2018, she would have cost Democrats the seat there, too.)

[Donerail]

Quite similar to the Arkansas democratic primary in 2010

Personally, it reminds me of the 2004 election to the Vorarlberg Landtag

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Quite similar to the Arkansas democratic primary in 2010

This was my first thought as well. I certainly think it would be competitive, but I would give Simena an edge for now simply by virtue of incumbency. Democrats have also generally demonstrated a lot of deference to the notion of "electability," or at least what they perceive to be "electability," in recent years, so I could imagine a lot of them sticking with Sinema because they think that she would be a significantly stronger candidate than Gallego in a general election.

[President Johnson]

Sinema would probably win, though I'd support Gallego here.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sinema would win with around 60% of the vote. Gallego wouldn't be a bad candidate, but I'll believe a Democratic Senator getting primaried for being too friendly with Republicans when I see it.

Joe Liberman ?

[Astatine]

Quite similar to the Arkansas democratic primary in 2010

Personally, it reminds me of the 2004 election to the Vorarlberg Landtag

Tender is it you

[SnowLabrador]

Sinema would probably win, though I'd support Gallego here.

[YE]

Gallego given how disloyal Sinema has been to the president.

[Sir Mohamed]

Quite similar to the Arkansas democratic primary in 2010

Personally, it reminds me of the 2004 election to the Vorarlberg Landtag

Tender is it you

Nah, the question is: Is Donerail in Tender's basement?

[Dipper Josh]

Yes. If Kelly wins in 2022, it's a no brainer for Gallego to run. Everyone gets what they want. Gallego is the perfect compromise candidate and the party really should have backed right off the bat like they were rumoured to be doing.

He's played along with the party brass in congress for multiple terms, he didn't get caught up in any of the primary drama thanks to him endorsing Swalwell, he won't rock the boat, and the Progs will be happy because he iced Sinema.

I think if the party backs off and leaves Sinema to her own devices while some popular national figures back Gallego, he'd pull it off.

Simena would win.

In any event, Progressives would be better off trying to primary Feinstein, Menenedez and Carper instead.

They'll probably do all 4, as they should. Progressives organizations are better funded and organized now, They'll have better luck finding good candidates in these states. IIRC and emphasis on IIRC, Justice Dems didnt challenge Menendez because they straight up couldnt find someone to do it.