How will Winston County, AL trend in the future?

[I’m not Stu]

So far, it has been a hyper Republican county that continues to trend Republican. How will it trend in the future: Republican, Democratic, or fairly static?

[Terlylane]

Static titanium R

[Asenath Waite]

Titanium R now, Titanium R tomorrow, Titanium R forever.

[Chips]

It'll stay Safe R for the foreseeable future.

[Roll Roons]

It can't really get any more Republican than it is, but there is no reason to think Democrats will come close to winning it anytime soon.

[bagelman]

It will somehow modestly trend GOP.

[Asenath Waite]

This brings something to mind I've often found interesting, almost no ancestrally unionist county in the south has trended Democratic in response to the rest of the region trending in the opposite direction. It makes sense in the same way that many rural northern counties would have been at home in every iteration of the Republican Party. The only outlier seems to be Watauga County, NC which genuinely does seem to be a consistent outlier in the rural south.

[I’m not Stu]

Are Republicans maxed out, or will they make more gains?

[Terlylane]

This brings something to mind I've often found interesting, almost no ancestrally unionist county in the south has trended Democratic in response to the rest of the region trending in the opposite direction. It makes sense in the same way that many rural northern counties would have been at home in every iteration of the Republican Party. The only outlier seems to be Watauga County, NC which genuinely does seem to be a consistent outlier in the rural south.

That’s probably due to Appalachian State University

[Schiff for Senate]

It will either stay 90% GOP or trend marginally more Democratic. Not that it will be a swing county any time soon.

[I’m not Stu]

It will either stay 90% GOP or trend marginally more Democratic. Not that it will be a swing county any time soon.

I thought it might very well trend GOP even more.

[Schiff for Senate]

It will either stay 90% GOP or trend marginally more Democratic. Not that it will be a swing county any time soon.

I thought it might very well trend GOP even more.

It's possible, of course (Roberts County, TX, gave Trump 96% of the vote), but I don't think there's room for the GOP to grow any more; I'm guessing the 8.6% of Biden voters in Winston County will not desert the Democratic Party. Although a few might, of course, I think 2016/2020 represented rock bottom for rural Democrats. (Elliott County, KY, voted for Obama by over 20% in 2008, for Obama by 4% in 2012, and for Trump in 2016 by over 40%. It trended even further to the right in 2020.) If things get any worse for Democrats in rural counties with small population (e.g. King County, Texas), they might end up with just 1 or 2 votes for Democratic candidates, or possibly (although this is a far stretch, it could happen) no votes at all (King County, Texas, gave Hillary Clinton five votes in 2016, although it gave Biden eight). And there have to be at least some (whether 'some' means even just 5 votes) loyal Democrats in every county. That's not to say that I'm totally ruling out the possibility that Winston County will trend redder; I just think it's highly unlikely given that there are very few Democratic voters left, and the fact that I don't think any Republican can truly overperform Trump in rural areas. What I mean is that that 8.6% resisted even Trump (the best GOP candidate for rural votes), so I'm guessing that 8.6% is solid and may even expand marginally to 10% or more in 2024 (assuming that Trump isn't the nominee; if he is, it may not trend bluer, though I still doubt it would trend further to the right after January 6).

[I’m not Stu]

When Winston County was trending GOP from 2012-2020, was it because of demographic change or just Democratic voters switching to the GOP? Winston County is an unusual ancestrally GOP county in Alabama.

[HAnnA MArin County]

When Winston County was trending GOP from 2012-2020, was it because of demographic change or just Democratic voters switching to the GOP? Winston County is an unusual ancestrally GOP county in Alabama.

Winston County is the whitest county in the state as well, so perhaps the handful of non-whites are moving out, thus making the county whiter/more GQP.

[I’m not Stu]

When Winston County was trending GOP from 2012-2020, was it because of demographic change or just Democratic voters switching to the GOP? Winston County is an unusual ancestrally GOP county in Alabama.

Winston County is the whitest county in the state as well, so perhaps the handful of non-whites are moving out, thus making the county whiter/more GQP.

Is there a good chance that Winston County's GOP trend was not simply because Democratic voters were defecting to the GOP?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's not like it can get more R, It trending D is the only possibility.