OH R primary - Moore Information Group/Timken internal: Mandel +5, Timken gains ground

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Taken in May, changes with a February survey
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Timken leads Mandel 40-16 among voters with an opinion of both.

Mandel 24 (+4)
Timken 19 (+14)
Mike Turner 8 (n/c)
Mike Gibbons 7 (+5)
JD Vance 4
Matt Dolan 2
Bernie Moreno 1
None/don’t know 35

Edit: here’s some more comprehensive details: https://www.twitter.com/JaneTimkenOH/status/1400076240480964615

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R, who cares?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R, who cares?

OH is our 53rd seat, probability, it's not Safe R, D's can net 51/55 seats Net WI, PA, oH, NC and IA or FL

Josh Mandel did so poorly in 2012 against Brown

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not safe R, and it is highly foolishly presumptous to claim otherwise.

[beesley]

Safe R, who cares?

Do you not think it matters who serves in the US Senate? And if you're a candidate it does make sense to poll your own race (and there's nothing wrong with posting that here).

[S019]

This is not safe R, and it is highly foolishly presumptous to claim otherwise.

It absolutely is Safe R, after 2020, it should be clear that OH is totally gone for the Democrats, I wouldn't be shocked if the Republican wins by 15, when all is said and done.

Safe R, who cares?

OH is our 53rd seat, probability, it's not Safe R, D's can net 51/55 seats Net WI, PA, oH, NC and IA or FL

Josh Mandel did so poorly in 2012 against Brown

Lol IA and OH, you'd think 2020 would make people give up on these states, at the same time there's still Republicans who think they can win Virginia, so I guess it makes sense, in that context.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not safe R, and it is highly foolishly presumptous to claim otherwise.

It absolutely is Safe R, after 2020, it should be clear that OH is totally gone for the Democrats, I wouldn't be shocked if the Republican wins by 15, when all is said and done.

We still don't have much ultra-concrete at all about how post-2020 alignments will look like on a more granular level. It's laughable to claim Trump-era gains are totally safe for the GOP. If there was any lesson we should take from the Trump Era, it is that American politics are dynamic and to a certain degree unpredictable. That means Trump Era Dem gains are not entirely safe for Ds (a reality you yourself took into account in your most recent posts in the NJ redistricting thread), but it also means that Trump Era Rep gains are not entirely safe for the GOP.
As someone (whose name escapes me) noted, one in 2009 could use this exact thinking you are using here, to claim Wisconsin is gone for GOPers.

[S019]

This is not safe R, and it is highly foolishly presumptous to claim otherwise.

It absolutely is Safe R, after 2020, it should be clear that OH is totally gone for the Democrats, I wouldn't be shocked if the Republican wins by 15, when all is said and done.

We still don't know much at all ultra-concrete about how post-2020 alignments will look like on a more granular level. It's laughable to claim Trump-era gains are totally safe for the GOP. If there was any lesson we should take from the Trump Era, it is that American politics are dynamic and to a certain degree unpredictable. That means Trump Era Dem gains are not entirely safe for Ds (a reality you yourself took into account in your most recent posts in the NJ redistricting thread), but it also means that Trump Era Rep gains are not entirely safe for the GOP.

My posts in the NJ redistricting thread were also related to the need to "wave-proof" seats, even in the massive 2018 Democratic wave, OH's generic ballot favored Republicans. In fact, Democrats have not won the House ballot in OH since 2008, when their coalition was totally different. Even pre-Trump, Democrats had not much good luck in OH, it was sort of like FL in the sense that Democrats lost most statewide offices and only won it presidentially when they didn't need it. Also the fact that this would be a Democratic president's midterm with anger towards the incumbent party driving turnout (negative partisanship, frequent feature of midterms), makes it hard for me to believe that a state that consistently votes right of the national partisan vote will flip or even come close to flipping. The simple fact is 2022 is much more likely to look like 2010 or 2014 than 2006 or 2018, had Trump been President, I might've agreed that Democrats could've had a chance here in a sixth-year itch type scenario, but in a Democratic midterm it's basically impossible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not safe R, and it is highly foolishly presumptous to claim otherwise.

It absolutely is Safe R, after 2020, it should be clear that OH is totally gone for the Democrats, I wouldn't be shocked if the Republican wins by 15, when all is said and done.

We still don't know much at all ultra-concrete about how post-2020 alignments will look like on a more granular level. It's laughable to claim Trump-era gains are totally safe for the GOP. If there was any lesson we should take from the Trump Era, it is that American politics are dynamic and to a certain degree unpredictable. That means Trump Era Dem gains are not entirely safe for Ds (a reality you yourself took into account in your most recent posts in the NJ redistricting thread), but it also means that Trump Era Rep gains are not entirely safe for the GOP.

My posts in the NJ redistricting thread were also related to the need to "wave-proof" seats, even in the massive 2018 Democratic wave, OH's generic ballot favored Republicans. In fact, Democrats have not won the House ballot in OH since 2008, when their coalition was totally different. Even pre-Trump, Democrats had not much good luck in OH, it was sort of like FL in the sense that Democrats lost most statewide offices and only won it presidentially when they didn't need it. Also the fact that this would be a Democratic president's midterm with anger towards the incumbent party driving turnout (negative partisanship, frequent feature of midterms), makes it hard for me to believe that a state that consistently votes right of the national partisan vote will flip or even come close to flipping. The simple fact is 2022 is much more likely to look like 2010 or 2014 than 2006 or 2018, had Trump been President, I might've agreed that Democrats could've had a chance here in a sixth-year itch type scenario, but in a Democratic midterm it's basically impossible.

Dems were actually quite strong in Ohio pre-Trump. In 2004, it was even Dem-leaning relative to the nation as a whole using one-cycle PVI. In 2012 it was barely more pro-R than the nation as a whole.
If I thought 2022 was likely to be a 2010 or 2014, I would have to agree that a Safe R rating is something that could be rationally put up, but it is worth noting that 2010 and 2014 came at a bad time for Ds from a generational perspective - Dem leaning New Dealers had died in large enough numbers and GOP leaning people from the 50s were still alive, and Obama first time voters hadn't yet become reliable. Now I suspect those voters are pretty reliable, and will be part of the vote bank keeping 2022 from being a massive GOP landslide. It's not 2010 anymore. A 2010 style 2022 is possible but quite unlikely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is our 53rd seat pickup, NC is our 54th seat pickup and IA is our 55th seat pickup, D's aren't beating Rubio or DeSantis with DeSantis up 10

Meaning all of them outside the 303 map are wave insurance