The new bellwether states

[BigVic]

Which state are the bellwethers in future elections. Nevada is one. Has been won by the winning party at every election since the turn of the century except 2016 when it went to Hillary Clinton.

[Chips]

NV, WI, MI, PA.

[หมูเด้ง]

NV, WI, MI, PA.

Potentially NV,AZ,MI,GA

[DS0816]

Which state are the bellwethers in future elections. ….

The best bellwether states are the Rust Belt trio Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

They are the only four states carried in the last four presidential-election cycles of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—three of which were won by the Democrats; and this points to a realigning period, established since 2008, favoring the Democrats.


More information:

• https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441653.msg8084443#msg8084443

• https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566

[GregTheGreat657]

Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Georgia will likely be the next Virginia, with Michigan and Minnesota likely missing a Republican win in the 2020s. North Carolina, Florida, and Texas will likely vote for the GOP in a Democratic victory.

[Non Swing Voter]

Pennsylvania, Arizona.

[DS0816]

Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Georgia will likely be the next Virginia, with Michigan and Minnesota likely missing a Republican win in the 2020s. North Carolina, Florida, and Texas will likely vote for the GOP in a Democratic victory.

Since 1992, U.S. presidential elections have seen 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) to 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton) carried states. Average has been 29 carried states.

No presidential-election winner [since 1992 has] carried more than 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states. Those who did carry 8 were: 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama. (Those who carried 7 were: 1992 Bill Clinton, 2012 Barack Obama, and 2016 Donald Trump.)

In 2020, according to the margins, here were the best Top 10 populous states for the Republicans followed by those for the Democrats:

• Republican •
01. Ohio
02. Texas
03. Florida
04. North Carolina
05. Georgia
06. Pennsylvania
07. Michigan
08. Illinois
09. New York
10. California

• Democratic •
01. California
02. New York
03. Illinois
04. Michigan
05. Pennsylvania
06. Georgia
07. North Carolina
08. Florida
09. Texas
10. Ohio


In the future, I can sense Florida and Texas switching. It would not surprise me if this also happens with two separate pairs: Michigan and Pennsylvania and Georgia and North Carolina.

The best bellwether states are Michigan and Pennsylvania—as well as non-Top 10 Wisconsin—and I also would say that, beginning in 2020, Georgia and non-Top 10 Arizona have realigned to the Democrats (just as, beginning in 2016, Ohio and Florida realigned to the Republicans).

[David Hume]

NV, WI, MI, PA.

It's quite possible that R win WI and AZ but still lose presidency since they fail to win one of GA, PA, MI.

It's also possible that R win AZ and GA but none of WI, PA, MI, and lose. Although this blue wall scenario is less likely.

I would say PA is the new bellwether state in the near future. If R win PA, it's highly likely they win WI as well. And if R win PA and lose AZ, this probably means a major realignment, and they may win MI as well.

The scenario that R  win AZ, GA, WI yet lose PA is possible but not very likely. GA is very inelastic. Given the population shift trend, it would be increasingly hard for R to win it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Georgia will likely be the next Virginia, with Michigan and Minnesota likely missing a Republican win in the 2020s. North Carolina, Florida, and Texas will likely vote for the GOP in a Democratic victory.

Since 1992, U.S. presidential elections have seen 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) to 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton) carried states. Average has been 29 carried states.

No presidential-election winner carried more than 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states. Those who did carry 8 were: 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama. (Those who carried 7 were: 1992 Bill Clinton, 2012 Barack Obama, and 2016 Donald Trump.)

In 2020, according to the margins, here were the best Top 10 populous states for the Republicans followed by those for the Democrats:

• Republican •
01. Ohio
02. Texas
03. Florida
04. North Carolina
05. Georgia
06. Pennsylvania
07. Michigan
08. Illinois
09. New York
10. California

• Democratic •
01. California
02. New York
03. Illinois
04. Michigan
05. Pennsylvania
06. Georgia
07. North Carolina
08. Florida
09. Texas
10. Ohio


In the future, I can sense Florida and Texas switching. It would not surprise me if this also happens with two separate pairs: Michigan and Pennsylvania and Georgia and North Carolina.

The best bellwether states are Michigan and Pennsylvania—as well as non-Top 10 Wisconsin—and I also would say that, beginning in 2020, Georgia and non-Top 10 Arizona have realigned to the Democrats (just as, beginning in 2016, Ohio and Florida realigned to the Republicans).

The top 10 list for Republicans is crazy when you consider that Ohio (their best state) was at some points considered a swing state (it shouldn't have been) and Texas (number 2) is trending Dem.  Florida (number 3) only went to them by a few points.  North Carolina (number 4) went to them by a point.  Conversely, Dems won their top 3 states by extremely wide margins.  That explains the popular vote/electoral college vote split right there.