Are demographics destiny?

[Terlylane]

Both the left and alt right agree demographics are destiny.

Are they right? NO

[EastwoodS]

In 2012 I would have said yes now? No.

[Chips]

No.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Cubans Americans in FL won’t always favor the R, no.

[Vosem]

Sort of, yes. Consider shifts in Lebanon and Northern Ireland.

However, in the pretty deracinated US context, party alignments, relevant issues, and even people's opinions all tend to change faster than demographics.

[Person Man]

In a vacuum, yes.

Here are the main exceptions-

1) Black Swan events cast a party's policies in a different light and that causes groups to change their voting patterns.

2) Parties can see the writing on the wall and triangulate to win back voters they are losing.

3) Parties can double down and get more people involved.

[Skill and Chance]

In 2012 I would have said yes now? No.

In retrospect, 2012 is looking a lot like 1960.  Driven by a charismatic candidate with a (thus far) unique identity and not particularly predictive of what came before or after (in 2008 the economic downturn just overshadowed everything). 

[Xing]

When demographic changes favor my party? Yes.

When they don’t? Absolutely not.

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia says yes.

[DS0816]

Re: Are demographics destiny?

Along with that…

Vote Blue No Matter Who

(It will all work out.)

[ElectionsGuy]

No. The 2020 election is the strongest election evidence we have yet of it failing to predict the future.

White-college+ voters, and white-collar workers, have been the rapidly changing group that is threatening the Republican party right now. On this trajectory, Hispanics and to a smaller degree blacks will continue trending Republican. Tucker Carlson is wrong when he says the biggest threat to America is Democrats 'letting illegals in' and change the long-term demographics of the country and 'disenfranchise the American voter'. The biggest threat to the Republican Party, and America, I would argue, is college campuses and this dominant corporate culture of being overly sensitive and overly identity obsessed. It is people who no longer appreciate the unique nature of the country and want to overturn the things that make us different from Europe and the rest of the "advanced world" (And I'm not talking about universal healthcare), the whole reason we became a country in the first place.

[beesley]

Nope, in modern times they never have been, never will be.

[WindowPhil]

things that make us different from Europe and the rest of the "advanced world" (And I'm not talking about universal healthcare)

I'm curious what those would be if it's not healthcare.

[S019]

No. The 2020 election is the strongest election evidence we have yet of it failing to predict the future.

White-college+ voters, and white-collar workers, have been the rapidly changing group that is threatening the Republican party right now. On this trajectory, Hispanics and to a smaller degree blacks will continue trending Republican. Tucker Carlson is wrong when he says the biggest threat to America is Democrats 'letting illegals in' and change the long-term demographics of the country and 'disenfranchise the American voter'. The biggest threat to the Republican Party, and America, I would argue, is college campuses and this dominant corporate culture of being overly sensitive and overly identity obsessed. It is people who no longer appreciate the unique nature of the country and want to overturn the things that make us different from Europe and the rest of the "advanced world" (And I'm not talking about universal healthcare), the whole reason we became a country in the first place.

Stop threatening us with a good time, anyways kind of, in the sense that they are the most accurate predictor of how a person votes, but with obvious exceptions.

[Ferguson97]

Demographics aren't destiny - apparently unless we're talking about rural whites or Cubans.

[Samof94]

Sort of, yes. Consider shifts in Lebanon and Northern Ireland.

However, in the pretty deracinated US context, party alignments, relevant issues, and even people's opinions all tend to change faster than demographics.

Or Cyprus

[ElectionsGuy]

things that make us different from Europe and the rest of the "advanced world" (And I'm not talking about universal healthcare)

I'm curious what those would be if it's not healthcare.

Many of the bill of rights (especially free speech, 2nd amendment) but also in general how decentralized our government and society is compared to theirs.

[Motorcity]

Kinda? Depends?

1. I want to say no. Just because blacks, asians, hispanics, and muslims become a larger part of the population doesn't mean they will flex their voting power. I am a Muslim-American. The Muslim population in the United States has exploded in the last 25 years, since the average family has like five kids. The first wave that came in the 80s are now grandparents.

That said, I would say the Muslim-American demographic proabably voted at the smallest percentage rate of any group. Mind you, I live in the south so I don't know it its like in Michigan where Democrats seriosuly courted its large population. But nationally, the vote for Arab Americans and South Asian Americans still lag whites, blacks, and hispanics.

If they were to flex some political power, MI would be a solid blue state. Same with Wisconsin and Georgia (there is a large Arab community in Milwakee and Atlanta).

2. That said, I do think generational change matters. At the end of the day, I think Biden only won Wisconsin because of people born 1999-2003 aged in the elecotrage with some deaths from the older generation